Space launches 2024

Space launch industry 2024

This dashborad is about the most critical questions for the Space Launch field right now.

This is about crowdsourcing information, not necessarily about making the most Mana. So for this section, I’ll try to deduplicate by posting the questions with the best descriptions, most mana invested, and most people invested in them. This dashboard isn't going to contain all the things.

That said, if you feel like I've missed something, please let me know!

The industry as a whole

Will 2024 spaceflight launch success rate be superior to 2023s rate ? (95,07%)65% chance

Starship's 3rd launch

Mini

Will SpaceX superheavy return to earth and successfully demonstrate the hover maneuver (during the third launch attempt)N/A

By when will there be a 3rd Starship launch?

Resolved

NO

2024-01-01

Resolved

NO

2024-02-01

Resolved

NO

Before 2024-02-15

Resolved

NO

Before 2024-02-20

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By when will the FAA issue a launch license for the third StarshipSuper Heavy Integrated Flight Test?

Resolved

YES

Apr 1st 2024

Resolved

YES

Mar 15th 2024

Resolved

YES

Mar 22nd 2024

Resolved

YES

Mar 14th 2024

See 6 more answers

Mini

Will the first StarshipSuper Heavy launch to reach SECO be travelling at orbital speeds?NO

Falcon 9 / Falcon Heavy

Mini

How Many SPACEX Launches Will Occur During January 2024?

100%99.8%

10

0.0%

7

0.0%

12

0.1%

11

See 4 more answers

How many launches will SpaceX successfully send to orbit in 2024?

9%

<120

30%

120–129

30%

130–139

26%

140–149

See 2 more answers

Other SpaceX/Starship rumors

When will there be a 4th Starship Launch?

100%98.7%

June

0.0%

January

0.0%

February

0.1%

March

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Will SpaceX launch a nine-engine Starship variant in 2024?4% chance

How many Starship launches will there be between now (post IFT2) and the end of 2024?

1.2%

2

12%

3

38%

4

23%

5

See 11 more answers

Will SpaceX perform at least 144 successful orbital launches in the year 2024?44% chance

ULA's Vulcan/Centaur

Mini

How many times will Vulcan Centaur launch in 2024?

16%

0–1

70%

2–3

11%

4–5

3%

6+

Blue Origin's New Glenn

[ACX 2024] Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?45% chance

Will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket achieve orbit on its first launch?70% chance

Will Blue Origin's New Glenn launch before 2025?59% chance

How Many Blue Origin Launches Will Occur During First Half (January-June) 2024?

100%99.0%

1

0.4%

0

0.6%Other

Will Blue Origins New Glenn be used for the ESCAPADE mission as planned (ie. be ready to launch by August 2024)38% chance

Other important launches

Will North Korea successfully launch a satellite in 2024?65% chance

Will Russia launch a North Korean satellite by the end of 2024?22% chance

Will Boeing Starliner Launch with Crewed Mission before July 2024YES

Unsorted

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