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Space launches 2024

Space launch industry 2024

This dashborad is about the most critical questions for the Space Launch field right now.

This is about crowdsourcing information, not necessarily about making the most Mana. So for this section, I’ll try to deduplicate by posting the questions with the best descriptions, most mana invested, and most people invested in them. This dashboard isn't going to contain all the things.

That said, if you feel like I've missed something, please let me know!

The industry as a whole

Will 2024 spaceflight launch success rate be superior to 2023’s rate ? (95,07%)63% chance
#Spacex
#Rockets
#Space

Starship's 3rd launch

Will SpaceX superheavy return to earth and successfully demonstrate the hover maneuver (during the third launch attempt)N/A
#Starship Launch Party
#Rockets
#Spacex
By when will there be a 3rd Starship launch?
Resolved
NO
2024-01-01
Resolved
NO
2024-02-01
Resolved
NO
Before 2024-02-15
Resolved
NO
Before 2024-02-20
See 13 more answers
#Spacex
#Starship Launch Party
#Space
By when will the FAA issue a launch license for the third Starship–Super Heavy Integrated Flight Test?
Resolved
YES
Apr 1st 2024
Resolved
YES
Mar 15th 2024
Resolved
YES
Mar 22nd 2024
Resolved
YES
Mar 14th 2024
See 6 more answers
#Spacex
#Space
#Starship Launch Party
Will the first Starship–Super Heavy launch to reach SECO be travelling at orbital speeds?NO
#Technology
#Spacex
#Starship Launch Party

Falcon 9 / Falcon Heavy

How Many SPACEX Launches Will Occur During January 2024?
100%99.8%
10
0.0%
7
0.0%
12
0.1%
11
See 4 more answers
#Space exploration
#Space colonization
#Space
How many launches will SpaceX successfully send to orbit in 2024?
3%
<120
10%
120–129
24%
130–139
39%
140–149
See 2 more answers
#Rockets
#Spacex
#Space

Other SpaceX/Starship rumors

When will there be a 4th Starship Launch?
0.3%
January
0.4%
February
0.4%
March
1.2%
April
See 4 more answers
#Starship Launch Party
#Space
#Spacex
Will SpaceX launch a nine-engine Starship variant in 2024?4% chance
#Spacex
#Starship Launch Party
#Rockets
How many Starship launches will there be between now and the end of 2024?
0.5%
0
1.9%
1
5%
2
18%
3
See 11 more answers
#Spacex
#Commercial spaceflight
#Space
Will SpaceX perform at least 144 successful orbital launches in the year 2024?45% chance
#Spacex
#Space
#Rockets

ULA's Vulcan/Centaur

How many times will Vulcan Centaur launch in 2024?
38%
0–1
41%
2–3
16%
4–5
5%
6+
#Space
#Rockets
#ULA

Blue Origin's New Glenn

[ACX 2024] Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?38% chance
#ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
#Metaculus
#Space
Will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket achieve orbit on its first launch?67% chance
#Space
Will Blue Origin's New Glenn launch before 2025?58% chance
#Space
#Blue Origin
How Many Blue Origin Launches Will Occur During First Half (January-June) 2024?
31%
0
55%
1
14%
Other
#Rockets
#Space colonization
#Commercial spaceflight
Will Blue Origin’s New Glenn be used for the ESCAPADE mission as planned (ie. be ready to launch by August 2024)49% chance
#Space

Other important launches

Will North Korea successfully launch a satellite in 2024?65% chance
#Technology
#World
#Space
Will Russia launch a North Korean satellite by the end of 2024?22% chance
#Ukraine-Russia war
#Wars
#Russia
Will Boeing Starliner Launch with Crewed Mission before July 202488% chance
#Spacex
#Space
#Space exploration

Unsorted

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