Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes

AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back

A Starting QB gets put on IR in the week after the game

Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game

Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game

Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game

A game finishes with no touchdowns OR a game finishes with no made field goals

Any player throws for more than 325 yards and loses

A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 2 TDs (including passing)

Will a championship belt change teams (https://shorturl.at/2bXlq) (https://shorturl.at/XwDBj)

LA teams finish with a better record than NY teams

Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams

3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game

Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game

Top 4 Super Bowl Betting Favorites changes by Wednesday after (Current: Chiefs, 49ers, Ravens, Lions)

Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)

4th and Goal from the 1 (or inches) stopped

Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT

A 1pm EST game is still going when a 4:25pm EST game starts

Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)* https://tinyurl.com/highestgame

For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name

A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)

Based on Highest Scoring Night Game: Resolves at 0% if TNF, 33% if SNF, 67% if MNF G1, 100% if MNF G2

A team costs themselves at least 5% Win Percentage through a 4th down (https://tinyurl.com/4thDownBot) decision

Add your own props related to Week Seven (if it is super specific be prepared to help me find an answer). Answers should be able to be resolved by about a Week after Week Seven finishes, but not later than that.

The 14th annual League of Legends World Championship will be held from September 25, 2024 to November 2, 2024.

This market will resolve to the winner of the tournament.  If the tournament is not completed by December 31, 2024, then the market will resolve to 

 category was used during the qualification phase when some teams had yet to qualify.  The market will never resolve to 

; however if a team is disqualified and replaced by another team, that new team will be added and be split out of Other.

RB Salzburg beats Dinamo Zagreb ⚽ 10/23

Minnesota Vikings beat Los Angeles Rams (10/24) 8:15 PM (Prime)

Chicago Bears beat Washington Commanders (10/27) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Green Bay Packers beat Jacksonville Jaguars (10/27) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Arizona Cardinals beat Miami Dolphins (10/27) 1:00 PM (FOX)

New York Jets beat New England Patriots (10/27) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Baltimore Ravens beat Cleveland Browns (10/27) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Indianapolis Colts beat Houston Texans (10/27) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Tennessee Titans beat Detroit Lions (10/27) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Atlanta Falcons beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10/27) 1:00 PM (FOX)

New Orleans Saints beat Los Angeles Chargers (10/27) 4:05 PM (CBS)

Buffalo Bills beat Seattle Seahawks (10/27) 4:05 PM (FOX)

Kansas City Chiefs beat Las Vegas Raiders (10/27) 4:25 PM (CBS)

Carolina Panthers beat Denver Broncos (10/27) 4:25 PM (FOX)

Philadelphia Eagles beat Cincinnati Bengals (10/27) 4:25 PM (FOX)

Dallas Cowboys beat San Francisco 49ers (10/27) 8:20 PM (NBC)

New York Giants beat Pittsburgh Steelers (10/28) 8:15 PM (ESPN)

Get ready for an exhilarating season of football!

 (⭐4.96) for lightning-fast market resolutions and surprise market liquidity boosts all year long. Don't miss out—join the excitement today!

Buffalo Sabres beat New Jersey Devils 12pm Oct 4

New Jersey Devils beat Buffalo Sabres 9am Oct 5

Seattle Kraken beat St. Louis Blues 3:30pm Oct 8

Florida Panthers beat Boston Bruins 6pm Oct 8

Utah Hockey Club beat Chicago Blackhawks 9pm Oct 8

Montreal Canadiens beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6pm Oct 9

Pittsburgh Penguins beat New York Rangers 6:30pm Oct 9

Edmonton Oilers beat Winnipeg Jets 9pm Oct 9

Vancouver Canucks beat Calgary Flames 9pm Oct 9

Vegas Golden beat Knights Colorado Avalanche 9pm Oct 9

Boston Bruins beat Montreal Canadiens 6pm Oct 10

Buffalo Sabres beat Los Angeles Kings 6pm Oct 10

New Jersey Devils beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6pm Oct 10

Ottawa Senators beat Florida Panthers 6pm Oct 10

New York Islanders beat Utah Hockey Club 6:30pm Oct 10

Detroit Red Wings beat Pittsburgh Penguins 7pm Oct 10

Minnesota Wild beat Columbus Blue Jackets 7pm Oct 10

Nashville Predators beat Dallas Stars 7pm Oct 10

San Jose Sharks beat St. Louis Blues 9:30pm Oct 10

Carolina Hurricanes beat Tampa Bay Lightning 6pm Oct 11

Winnipeg Jets beat Chicago Blackhawks 7pm Oct 11

Vancouver Canucks beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 11

Vegas Golden Knights beat St. Louis Blues 9pm Oct 11

Boston Bruins beat Los Angeles Kings 12pm Oct 12

Buffalo Sabres beat Florida Panthers 6pm Oct 12

Detroit Red Wings beat Nashville Predators 6pm Oct 12

Montreal Canadiens beat Ottawa Senators 6pm Oct 12

New York Rangers beat Utah Hockey Club 6pm Oct 12

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Carolina Hurricanes 6pm Oct 12

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Pittsburgh Penguins 6pm Oct 12

Washington Capitals beat New Jersey Devils 6pm Oct 12

Dallas Stars beat New York Islanders 7pm Oct 12

Minnesota Wild beat Seattle Kraken 7pm Oct 12

Colorado Avalanche beat Columbus Blue Jackets 8pm Oct 12

Calgary Flames beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 12

Edmonton Oilers beat Chicago Blackhawks 9pm Oct 12

San Jose Sharks beat Anaheim Ducks 9pm Oct 12

Winnipeg Jets beat Minnesota Wild 5pm Oct 13

Dallas Stars beat Seattle Kraken 7pm Oct 13

Edmonton Oilers beat Calgary Flames 7pm Oct 13

Vegas Golden Knights beat Anaheim Ducks 9pm Oct 13

Boston Bruins beat Florida Panthers 12pm Oct 14

New Jersey Devils beat Utah Hockey Club 12pm Oct 14

Ottawa Senators beat Los Angeles Kings 12pm Oct 14

New York Rangers beat Detroit Red Wings 6pm Oct 14

Montreal Canadiens beat Pittsburgh Penguins 6:30pm Oct 14

Colorado Avalanche beat New York Islanders 8pm Oct 14

Carolina Hurricanes beat New Jersey Devils 6pm Oct 15

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Florida Panthers 6pm Oct 15

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Vancouver Canucks 6pm Oct 15

Washington Capitals beat Vegas Golden Knights 6pm Oct 15

St. Louis Blues beat Minnesota Wild 6:30pm Oct 15

Dallas Stars beat San Jose Sharks 7pm Oct 15

Nashville Predators beat Seattle Kraken 7pm Oct 15

Calgary Flames beat Chicago Blackhawks 8pm Oct 15

Edmonton Oilers beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 15

Pittsburgh Penguins beat Buffalo Sabres 6pm Oct 16

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Los Angeles Kings 6:30pm Oct 16

Colorado Avalanche beat Boston Bruins 8:30pm Oct 16

Anaheim Ducks beat Utah Hockey Club 9pm Oct 16

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Buffalo Sabres 6pm Oct 17

Florida Panthers beat Vancouver Canucks 6pm Oct 17

Montreal Canadiens beat Los Angeles Kings 6pm Oct 17

Ottawa Senators beat New Jersey Devils 6pm Oct 17

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Vegas Golden Knights 6pm Oct 17

Washington Capitals beat Dallas Stars 6pm Oct 17

Detroit Red Wings beat New York Rangers 6:30pm Oct 17

Nashville Predators beat Edmonton Oilers 7pm Oct 17

St. Louis Blues beat New York Islanders 7pm Oct 17

Chicago Blackhawks beat San Jose Sharks 7:30pm Oct 17

Seattle Kraken beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 17

Pittsburgh Penguins beat Carolina Hurricanes 6pm Oct 18

Winnipeg Jets beat San Jose Sharks 7pm Oct 18

Colorado Avalanche beat Anaheim Ducks 8pm Oct 18

Ottawa Senators beat Tampa Bay Lightning 12pm Oct 19

Nashville Predators beat Detroit Red Wings 1pm Oct 19

Dallas Stars beat Edmonton Oilers 3pm Oct 19

Florida Panthers beat Vegas Golden Knights 5pm Oct 19

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Minnesota Wild 6pm Oct 19

New Jersey Devils beat Washington Capitals 6pm Oct 19

New York Islanders beat Montreal Canadiens 6pm Oct 19

Philadelphia Flyers beat Vancouver Canucks 6pm Oct 19

St. Louis Blues beat Carolina Hurricanes 6pm Oct 19

Toronto Maple Leafs beat New York Rangers 6pm Oct 19

Chicago Blackhawks beat Buffalo Sabres 7pm Oct 19

Utah Hockey Club beat Boston Bruins 8pm Oct 19

Seattle Kraken beat Calgary Flames 9pm Oct 19

Winnipeg Jets beat Pittsburgh Penguins 2pm Oct 20

Anaheim Ducks beat Los Angeles Kings 7pm Oct 20

San Jose Sharks beat Colorado Avalanche 7pm Oct 20

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Tampa Bay Lightning 6:30pm Oct 21

Philadelphia Flyers beat Washington Capitals 5pm Oct 22

Florida Panthers beat Minnesota Wild 5:30pm Oct 22

New Jersey Devils beat Tampa Bay Lightning 5:45pm Oct 22

Buffalo Sabres beat Dallas Stars 6pm Oct 22

Montreal Canadiens beat New York Rangers 6:15pm Oct 22

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6:30pm Oct 22

New York Islanders beat Detroit Red Wings 6:45pm Oct 22

St. Louis Blues beat Winnipeg Jets 7pm Oct 22

Chicago Blackhawks beat Vancouver Canucks 7:15pm Oct 22

Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.

Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme 

 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.

However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) 

there will eventually be a model called GPT-5

 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5".

Additional update from Manifold staff before sweepifying:

Publicly released includes if it is behind their subscription or a roll-out where some people have access and some are still waiting. If it's publicly released but only for API access this will still resolve YES. Dates for this market are in PST.

: Eliezer and I publicly stated some predictions about AI performance on the IMO by 2025.... My final prediction (after significantly revising my guesses after looking up IMO questions and medal thresholds) was:

Eliezer spent less time revising his prediction, but said (earlier in the discussion):

So I think we have Paul at <8%, Eliezer at >16% for AI made before the IMO is able to get a gold (under time controls 

 of grand challenge) in one of 2022-2025.

Resolves to YES if either Eliezer or Paul acknowledge that an AI has succeeded at this task.

https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-machine-learning-model-score-f0d93ee0119b

Update: As noted by Paul, the qualifying years for IMO completion are 2023, 2024, and 2025.

Update 2024-06-21: Description formatting

Update 2024-07-25: Changed title from "by 2025" to "by the end of 2025" for clarity

 of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, & Arizona in the 2024 presidential election. It resolves 

Resolution will be based on the AP & Fox News decision desks. If they both declare a winner in these four states, this question will resolve 48 hours later if those calls have not been retracted.

If a large language models beats a super grandmaster (Classic elo of above 2,700) while playing blind chess by 2028, this market resolves to YES.

I will ignore fun games, at my discretion. (Say a game where Hiraku loses to ChatGPT because he played the Bongcloud)

Some clarification (28th Mar 2023): This market grew fast with a unclear description. My idea is to check whether a general intelligence can play chess, without being created specifically for doing so (like humans aren't chess playing machines). Some previous comments I did.

1- To decide whether a given program is a LLM, I'll rely in the media and the nomenclature the creators give to it. If they choose to call it a LLM or some term that is related, I'll consider. Alternatively, a model that markets itself as a chess engine (or is called as such by the mainstream media) is unlikely to be qualified as a large language model.

2- The model can write as much as it want to reason about the best move. But it can't have external help beyond what is already in the weights of the model. For example, it can't access a chess engine or a chess game database. 

I won't bet on this market and I will refund anyone who feels betrayed by this new description and had open bets by 28th Mar 2023. This market will require judgement.

Resolves YES if a 6th Starship launch, intended to reach space, takes place on or before the specified date (local time at the launch site). Otherwise NO.

A "launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines. (Exploding on the pad does not count.)

"Starship" is defined as any vehicle designs descended from the existing designs of Starship - i.e. if they make substantial changes or rename the vehicle, it still counts. But a vehicle based on e.g. the Falcon 9 would not count, even if SpaceX called it a Starship.

Only missions with a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude) count.

 which is a platform for ranking LLMs based on human ratings. As expected, OpenAI is holding positions 1, 2, and 3. I 

wonder which company will be #1 at the end of 2024. 

Screenshot of the rankings table taken on the 13th of December: 

This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the election.

If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the election, or NO otherwise.

Resolution will be based on the Associated Press and Fox News decision desks. If both the AP and Fox declare a winner, this question will be resolved 48 hours later if those calls are not retracted.

If the AP/Fox do not declare a winner, such as if there is a tie in the electoral college, this question will resolve YES if any candidate of the Republican Party is designated as the next president by the United States Congress before the end of January 31st, 2025 (ET), or will resolve NO otherwise.

In a recent Twitter exchange, the VC Keith Rabois called Nate Silver a "buffoon" and claimed that the "minimum" Trump win in FL is 8 points (and 10-14 is "more likely"). In reply, Nate challenged him to a $100,000 bet. 

This market resolves YES if Trump wins Florida by >8 points, and NO otherwise.

Will Kamala Harris flip a state in the 2024 presidential election?

Flipping a state means she wins a state not won by Joe Biden in 2020.

Maine or Nebraska's congressional districts do not count. For example, if Kamala Harris wins Maine's second district, that doesn't resolve this question.

This question closes a day before the election, and resolves as soon as results are known.

If for whatever reason the Democratic nominee changes this question will be about the new nominee.

This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the state of Pennsylvania in the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the state.

If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the presidential election in Pennsylvania, or NO otherwise.

Resolution will be based on the Associated Press and Fox News decision desks. Once both the AP and Fox declare a winner, this question will be resolved 48 hours later if those calls are not retracted.

If the AP/Fox do not both agree on the winner of the state, this market will resolve based on the US Congress' certification of the election in January 2025, resolving YES if a Republican party candidate is certified as the winner or NO otherwise.

David Becker, executive director of the Center for Election Innovation and Research, 

Will Donald Trump declare that he has won the 2024 US presidential election before 8:00 AM Eastern Time (5 AM Pacific Time) on Wednesday November 6th, 2024?

To determine whether Donald Trump declared himself the winner of the 2024 US presidential election on election night, statements made by Donald Trump between 12:00 PM November 5th 2024 and 8:00 AM November 6th 2024 Eastern Time will be analyzed. If Donald Trump says during this time, through any medium including his official social media accounts, that he has won the 2024 US presidential election, then this question will resolve as YES. Otherwise, it will resolve as NO.

To qualify, a statement or declaration must explicitly and unambiguously state that Trump considers himself, or his campaign, the winner of the 2024 election, using clear language such as "Frankly, we did win this election" or similar. The statement must clearly refer to the past or present tense, and cannot use conditional phrasing, e.g., "I have won" or "I am the winner" rather than "I will win" or "If you count the legal votes, I easily win". The statement must directly pertain to the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election, rather than any other election.

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