Resolves YES if Donald Trump is arrested before January of 2024

Update: For clarification, the use of the word arrested is the legal term in the jurisdiction in which the event occurs. I'm trying to gather the definitions from each state. If you would like to assist in finding references for each state, that's helpful too. 

In most states, being arrested is being held involuntarily in custody. I suspect that once we know which state indictments occur in, we'll have more detail on the process in scope.

Politics

Donald Trump

Culture War

Something a-la ChatGPT, as in it has to be able to conversational and open domain. Google Assistant doesn't count primarily because you can't ask it stuff like "write a Shakespearean sonnet about Bill Gates".

 homepage. Has to be open to general public, and easily accessible from Google search home page. Not something you have to get whitelisted for, be in a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog.

Separate app counts, as long as it's promoted on 

 homepage to the general public. "Random 1% of users get an invite" doesn't count. "All US users get access but it's not in other locales" does count.

If Assistant (as it's integrated into phones, smart speakers etc.) were to just quietly get this capability, but it weren't promoted on 

, that wouldn't count. If it were promoted, it would.

Technology

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States unseals or otherwise officially announces a criminal indictment of former President Donald Trump before the resolution time March 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

Please note, for purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

Note also, that an indictment that has been issued before the resolution time but remains sealed or otherwise secret at the resolution time will not be considered in this market.

https://polymarket.com/event/will-donald-j-trump-be-indicted-by

Edit just to be clear: This market will resolve the same as Polymarket.

 → Will Trump be indicted by March 31? [Polymarket question, see details]

Law & Order

US Politics

MAGA-land

"Very famous" = Has at least 10 million followers on Twitter, or they're otherwise famous enough that if they were to create a public Twitter account they would almost certainly get that number with ease.

The claim doesn't have to be made on Twitter. It does need to appear genuine and unironic. They don't need to actually follow through on it, but it does need to clearly be a "decision" and not a "hmm, I wonder if I should do this".

Important life decisions include who to date, where to live, what career to be in, etc.

In the event that this has already happened in the past, I reserve the right to change the market criteria to something in the same vein that's a bit more exclusive, so that the previous event doesn't qualify.

Nuclear Risk

Nathan's Dashboard

This market resolves YES, if, in my sole opinion, it seems abundantly clear that support for "AI" (an umbrella term for all the technologies, and, frankly marketing/branding associated with the term), becomes politically polarized along left/right lines.

It doesn't matter which side becomes "pro" AI or "anti" AI, just that each one picks a side and starts visibly yelling at the other, and that one's allegiance to left/right politics starts to drive people's opinions about whether they are pro or anti AI, and vice versa. 

This is especially the case if you express an opinion about AI and people immediately assume you must belong to either the left/right based solely on that statement.

Will the left/right culture war come for AI?

 → Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?

AI Culture War

Same as this market, but with a longer timeline: 

Jimmy Carter

This question resolves to YES if during one of the main (non-VP) 2024 general presidential election debates in the United States, the moderator asks at least two separate questions directly related to artificial intelligence, such as the potential for job losses due to automation, or existential risk from AI. This question also resolves to YES if AI is otherwise brought up by a candidate in the context of a question unrelated to AI and ALL candidates talk about AI at least once during the same debate, with at least one of the candidates saying "AI", "artificial intelligence", "robots" or a close synonym at least three separate times, at least five seconds apart, during the same debate. Otherwise, this question resolves to NO.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sWLLdG6DWJEy3CH7n/imo-challenge-bet-with-eliezer

 Eliezer has this at >16%; Paul at <8%. Resolves to YES if either Eliezer or Paul acknowledge that an AI has succeeded at this task.

https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-machine-learning-model-score-f0d93ee0119b

Update: As noted by Paul, the qualifying years for IMO completion are 2023, 2024, and 2025.

Technical AI Timelines

IMO Grand Challenge

https://www.npr.org/2023/03/14/1163392887/biden-jimmy-carter-eulogy

World

Culture

Presidential Politics

Death markets

Real GDP, according to BEA advance estimate in Jan '24.

Closing date/time is estimated, and will update to reflect the scheduled data release time.

Economics

What an actually pessimistic containment strategy looks like

A notable attack could include a bombing, an attack on someone who works there, a hack, etc. The attack does not need to be successful; a bomb that doesn't detonate would still count. However the planned attack must actually 

. Some graffiti on the wall of an AI lab is not going to resolve this YES, though more significant vandalism like cutting the internet cables could count.

A large, sustained, in-person protest would also count, even if nothing is violent.