Something a-la ChatGPT, as in it has to be able to conversational and open domain. Google Assistant doesn't count primarily because you can't ask it stuff like "write a Shakespearean sonnet about Bill Gates".

 homepage. Has to be open to general public, and easily accessible from Google search home page. Not something you have to get whitelisted for, be in a small experiment or meticulously look for in some settings dialog.

Separate app counts, as long as it's promoted on 

 homepage to the general public. "Random 1% of users get an invite" doesn't count. "All US users get access but it's not in other locales" does count.

If Assistant (as it's integrated into phones, smart speakers etc.) were to just quietly get this capability, but it weren't promoted on 

, that wouldn't count. If it were promoted, it would.

Technology

If humanity is still around on Jan 1, 2030, then this market resolves to NO.

If humanity is not around but AI(s) are then this market resolves to YES.

If neither humanity nor AIs are around then this market does not resolve.

AI Doom

Existential Risk

AI risk

Aella ​

In an ongoing survey, I am asking people to rate around 100 items for how 'virtuous' (good/moral/ethical) test takers find them.

Three of the items are 'your mother', 'a golden retriever dog', and 'you yourself'.

Which one of these three items will receive the highest rating, on average? 

Gracefully winding down doesn't count, it must be somewhat catastrophic, similar to FTX. Happening unexpectedly in a short time frame, leaving other people at a disadvantage, etc.

New Year's Resolutions 2024

Binance

Cryptocurrency

This market predicts whether GPT-4 will be able to solve "easy" Sudoku puzzles by December 31, 2023. I've tried some prompts, but it mostly pretends to do logical deduction and guesses, ends up in an inconsistency(or doesn't notice), and eventually gets stuck in a loop making mistakes.

Consider this market a challenge. Also see the group for this and related markets(

GPT-4 Sudoku Challenge (2023) | Manifold Markets

With at most 50 "Assistant" entries(50 turns). The only "dynamic" input here is entry #2 which has the puzzle, and the rest is ChatGPT's responses. So this counts as a "fixed prompt" solution. You're allowed to insert more prompts into the chain after the puzzle, as long as the decision to include them or their contents do not depend on the puzzle. For example, you might have a prompt that causes ChatGPT to expand the puzzle into a set of logical constraints. You're allowed to drop sections from the chain when sending context to GPT-4 , as long as the decision to drop does not depend on the contents of any section.

Candidate solutions will be converted to code and run using a script(

). You are not required to interact with this script when submitting a solution, but 

 will attempt to use it to judge your solution so it may help in understanding the format.

GPT-4 Sudoku Challenge (2023)

Showcase

Contests

GPT-4 speculation

OpenAI

Technical AI Timelines

ChatGPT 

This market resolves to yes if the Ukrainian army makes a clear large scale counter offensive attack against Russia to reclaim their land before the end of June 2023.

Will resolve yes if the counter-offense is clear and obvious before July 1st. Not if there are some probing attacks that may become larger afterwards.

As the resolution is subjective, I will not bet in it.

Ukraine Counteroffensive

Ukraine

Ukraine-Russia war

David Charles Grusch, a former member of the Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force run by the Office of Naval Intelligence, has made substantial allegations that the US government possesses non-human technology and materials. He further alleges that the Intelligence Community has intentionally withheld classified evidence of "intact and partially intact craft of non-human origin" and fragments "of exotic origin (non-human intelligence, whether extraterrestrial or unknown origin)" from congressional oversight. This has led to an ongoing investigation in response to his whistleblower complaint.

On the other hand, the Department of Defense has stated that the Airborne Object Identification and Management Synchronization Group (AARO) has not found any information substantiating claims of any programs related to the possession or reverse-engineering of extraterrestrial materials. They, however, assured their commitment to following the data and the investigation wherever it may lead.

This prediction market seeks to speculate on whether David Charles Grusch's claims will be substantiated by December 31, 2023. The resolution of this market will be based on official reports or statements from the authorities involved in the investigation, such as the Office of Naval Intelligence, AARO, or any other relevant government body.

For the purpose of this market, 'substantiated' will mean that the claims made by Grusch are officially confirmed as true in part or in full by the investigating authorities.

YES: The authorities have officially confirmed that some or all of Grusch's claims are true by December 31, 2023.

NO: The authorities have not confirmed Grusch's claims, have refuted them, or have not released any statement regarding the claims by December 31, 2023.

In the event of ambiguous or contradictory statements from different authorities, the market creator will make the final decision based on the preponderance of the evidence.