Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.

Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme 

 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.

However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) 

there will eventually be a model called GPT-5

 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5".

🤖 AI

🖥️ Technology

🤖 OpenAI

GPT-5 Speculation

ChatGPT

YouTube

Entertainment

Hardware

Rabbit R1

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sWLLdG6DWJEy3CH7n/imo-challenge-bet-with-eliezer

 Eliezer has this at >16%; Paul at <8%. Resolves to YES if either Eliezer or Paul acknowledge that an AI has succeeded at this task.

https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-machine-learning-model-score-f0d93ee0119b

Update: As noted by Paul, the qualifying years for IMO completion are 2023, 2024, and 2025.

Technology

Technical AI Timelines

IMO Grand Challenge

Mathematics

Third Party Validated, Predictive Markets: AI

IE "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

Scott Alexander's 5 year predictions

AI Media Creation

In "Moving the Eiffel Tower to ROME", a paper claimed to have identified where the fact "The Eiffel Tower is in France" had been stored within GPT-J-6B, in the sense that you could poke the GPT there and make it believe the Eiffel Tower was in Rome.

"The Eiffel Tower is in France" seems (in my personal judgment) like the sort of fact that early AI pioneers could and did represent within GOFAI systems. GPT-J probably does more with that fact - it can for example answer how to get to the Eiffel Tower from Berlin, believing that the Eiffel Tower is in Rome.  But the paper didn't offer neural transparency into how GPT-J gives directions, we don't know the stored patterns for answering that part - just a neural representation of the brute idea that GOFAI pioneers might've represented with in(Eiffel-Tower, Rome).

This market reflects the probability that, in the personal judgment of Eliezer Yudkowsky, anyone will have uncovered any sort of data, pattern, cognitive representation, within a text transformer / large language model (LLM), whose semantic pattern and nature 

 familiar to AI and cognitive science in 2006 (to pick an arbitrary threshold for "before the rise of deep learning").

Also in 2006, somebody might've represented "the Eiffel Tower is in France" by assigning spatial coordinates to the Eiffel Tower and a regional boundary to France.  Idioms like that appear in eg video games long predating 2006.  Nobody has yet identified emergent environmental-spatial-coordinate representations inside a text transformer model, so far as I know; but even if someone did so before the end of 2026 - as mighty a triumph as that would be - it would not (in the personal judgment of Eliezer Yudkowsky) be an instance of somebody finding a cognitive pattern represented inside a text transformer, which pattern was unknown to cognitive science in 2006.

2006 similarly knew about linear regression, k-nearest-neighbor, principle components analysis, etcetera, even though these patterns were considered "statistical learning" rather than "Good-Old-Fashioned AI".  Identifying an emergent kNN algorithm inside an LLM would again 

constitute "understanding via transparency, within an LLM, some pattern and representation of cognition not known in 2006 or earlier".  Likewise for TD-learning and other biologically inspired algorithms, including those considered the domain of neuroscience (from 2006 or earlier).

GOFAI and kNN and similar technologies did not suffice to, say, invent new funny jokes, or carry on a realistic conversation, or do any sort of intellectual labor.  The 

of this proposition, if relevant, is to assert that by end of 2026 we will not be able to grasp any inkling of the cognition inside of LLMs by which they do much 

than AIs could do in 2006; we will not have decoded any cognitive representations inside of LLMs supporting any

 cognitive capabilities original to the era of deep learning

.  We will only be able to hunt down internal cognition of the sort that lets LLMs do more trivial and old-AI-ish cognitive steps, like localizing the Eiffel Tower to France (or Rome); on their way to completing larger and more impressive tasks, incorporating other cognitive steps; whose representations inside the LLM, even if we have some idea of which weights are involved, have not yet been decoded in a way semantically meaningful to a human.

AI Alignment 

Mechanistic interpretability 

I will resolve this based on some combination of how much it gets talked about in elections, how much money goes to interest groups on both topics, and how much of the "political conversation" seems to be about either.

Politics

US Politics

Medicine 

Abortion

This question resolves to YES if during at least one of the main (non-VP) 2024 general presidential election debates in the United States, the moderator asks at least two separate questions directly related to artificial intelligence, such as the potential for job losses due to AI automation, or existential risk from AI. This question also resolves to YES if AI is otherwise brought up by a candidate in the context of a question unrelated to AI and ALL candidates talk about AI at least once during the same debate, with at least one of the candidates saying "AI", "artificial intelligence", "robots" or a close synonym at least three separate times, at least five seconds apart, during the same debate. Otherwise, this question resolves to NO.

Asking "at least two separate questions" means that the moderator must pose two semantically distinct and individual queries, each intended to elicit a unique response, specifically about artificial intelligence. In other words, simply repeating the same question doesn't count as two separate questions, even if the question is asked twice, first to one candidate, and then a second time to the other candidate. Moreover, asking two distinct questions without waiting for the answer to the first one counts as two separate questions for the purpose of this question. For example, a clear positive instance would be asking first, "How do you plan to manage the existential risks from AI?" and then later asking, "What are your proposals to mitigate job loss due to automation from AI?" These are two separate questions because they cover different facets of artificial intelligence—existential risk and employment. A clear negative example would be if the moderator simply asked, "How do you plan to manage the existential risks from AI?" to one candidate, and then later said "Same question to you" to the other candidate. Even though the question is asked twice, it's not considered two "separate" questions because it's a repetition of the same query.

When it comes to questions related to automation and job losses, the key factor that determines whether the question is "directly related to artificial intelligence" is whether the moderator mentions AI technologies or AI companies, such as ChatGPT, OpenAI, generative AI, or neural networks; any question will automatically qualify if the moderator says the word "AI" or "artificial intelligence" in the question. General questions about automation or job losses that don't clearly link back to AI won't be considered "directly related to artificial intelligence". For example, the following questions would NOT count as being directly related to artificial intelligence:

If there are no 2024 general presidential election debates, this question resolves to N/A.

🗳️ Politics

presidential debate

If TikTok is divested from ByteDance, or a similar corporate transaction occurs, and TikTok or its assets are transferred to a domestic company, "divest it" resolves YES.

OR, if ByteDance disallows U.S. users from accessing TikTok, or otherwise exits the U.S. market, "shut it down" resolves YES.

Alternatively, if the bill is overturned by a judge such that TikTok is allowed to operate in a structure substantially similar to its current structure, this question resolves N/A and all traders get their mana back.

Fine print: The law gives TikTok 270 days (plus an optional 90 more) to be divested. If this timeline is extended due to legal challenges, the question won't resolve until ByteDance makes (or is forced to make) its final decision. For example, if ByteDance disallows U.S. users from accessing TikTok but they have credible ongoing legal proceedings to overturn the law, this question will stay open until the legal disputes are resolved and TikTok finalizes its decision.

🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture

TikTok

🇺🇸 US Politics

Boston Red Sox beat Atlanta Braves - 12pm

'12pm':7 'atlanta':5 'beat':4 'boston':1 'brave':6 'red':2 'sox':3

St. Louis Cardinals beat Houston Astros - 12pm

'12pm':7 'astro':6 'beat':4 'cardin':3 'houston':5 'loui':2 'st':1

Tampa Bay Rays beat Philadelphia Phillies - 12pm

'12pm':7 'bay':2 'beat':4 'philadelphia':5 'philli':6 'ray':3 'tampa':1

Chicago White Sox beat Milwaukee Brewers - 2pm

'2pm':7 'beat':4 'brewer':6 'chicago':1 'milwauke':5 'sox':3 'white':2

Oakland Athletics beat Cleveland Guardians - 2pm

'2pm':6 'athlet':2 'beat':3 'cleveland':4 'guardian':5 'oakland':1

Texas Rangers beat Arizona Diamondbacks 2pm

'2pm':6 'arizona':4 'beat':3 'diamondback':5 'ranger':2 'texa':1

Colorado Rockies beat Kansas City Royals 2pm

'2pm':7 'beat':3 'citi':5 'colorado':1 'kansa':4 'rocki':2 'royal':6

Seattle Mariners beat Los Angeles Angels 2pm

'2pm':7 'angel':5,6 'beat':3 'los':4 'marin':2 'seattl':1

Detroit Tigers beat Toronto Blue Jays 5pm

'5pm':7 'beat':3 'blue':5 'detroit':1 'jay':6 'tiger':2 'toronto':4

New York Mets beat Washington Nationals 5pm

'5pm':7 'beat':4 'met':3 'nation':6 'new':1 'washington':5 'york':2

New York Yankees beat Detroit Tigers - 5:30pm

'30pm':8 '5':7 'beat':4 'detroit':5 'new':1 'tiger':6 'yanke':3 'york':2

'7pm':6 'beat':3 'chicago':4 'cincinnati':1 'cub':5 'red':2

San Francisco Giants beat Los Angeles Dodgers 8pm

'8pm':8 'angel':6 'beat':4 'dodger':7 'francisco':2 'giant':3 'los':5 'san':1

Atlanta Braves beat Pittsburgh Pirates - 12pm

'12pm':6 'atlanta':1 'beat':3 'brave':2 'pirat':5 'pittsburgh':4

Philadelphia Phillies beat Houston Astros - 12pm

'12pm':6 'astro':5 'beat':3 'houston':4 'philadelphia':1 'philli':2

Pittsburgh Pirates beat Minnesota Twins - 12pm

'12pm':6 'beat':3 'minnesota':4 'pirat':2 'pittsburgh':1 'twin':5

Toronto Blue Jays beat New York Yankees - 12pm

'12pm':8 'beat':4 'blue':2 'jay':3 'new':5 'toronto':1 'yanke':7 'york':6

'2pm':6 'beat':3 'chicago':1 'cub':2 'marin':5 'seattl':4

Cleveland Guardians beat Chicago White Sox - 2pm

'2pm':7 'beat':3 'chicago':4 'cleveland':1 'guardian':2 'sox':6 'white':5

Texas Rangers beat Kansas City Royals 2pm

'2pm':7 'beat':3 'citi':5 'kansa':4 'ranger':2 'royal':6 'texa':1

Arizona Diamondbacks beat Chicago Cubs - 2pm

'2pm':6 'arizona':1 'beat':3 'chicago':4 'cub':5 'diamondback':2

Los Angeles Angels beat Colorado Rockies - 2pm

'2pm':7 'angel':2,3 'beat':4 'colorado':5 'los':1 'rocki':6

Milwaukee Brewers beat Oakland Athletics - 2pm

'2pm':6 'athlet':5 'beat':3 'brewer':2 'milwauke':1 'oakland':4

Baltimore Orioles beat Detroit Tigers - 5pm

'5pm':6 'baltimor':1 'beat':3 'detroit':4 'oriol':2 'tiger':5

Washington Nationals beat St. Louis Cardinals - 5pm

'5pm':7 'beat':3 'cardin':6 'loui':5 'nation':2 'st':4 'washington':1

'5pm':7 'beat':3 'marlin':2 'met':6 'miami':1 'new':4 'york':5

Los Angeles Dodgers beat Cincinnati Reds - 7pm

'7pm':7 'angel':2 'beat':4 'cincinnati':5 'dodger':3 'los':1 'red':6

San Diego Padres beat San Francisco Giants - 7pm

'7pm':8 'beat':4 'diego':2 'francisco':6 'giant':7 'padr':3 'san':1,5

Oakland Athletics beat Milwaukee Brewers - 8pm

'8pm':6 'athlet':2 'beat':3 'brewer':5 'milwauke':4 'oakland':1

Houston Astros beat Washington Nationals - 11am

'11am':6 'astro':2 'beat':3 'houston':1 'nation':5 'washington':4

Atlanta Braves beat Baltimore Orioles - 12pm

'12pm':6 'atlanta':1 'baltimor':4 'beat':3 'brave':2 'oriol':5

Detroit Tigers beat Pittsburgh Pirates - 12pm

'12pm':6 'beat':3 'detroit':1 'pirat':5 'pittsburgh':4 'tiger':2

Minnesota Twins beat New York Yankees - 12pm

'12pm':7 'beat':3 'minnesota':1 'new':4 'twin':2 'yanke':6 'york':5

Philadelphia Phillies beat Toronto Blue Jays - 12pm

'12pm':7 'beat':3 'blue':5 'jay':6 'philadelphia':1 'philli':2 'toronto':4

St. Louis Cardinals beat New York Mets - 12pm

'12pm':8 'beat':4 'cardin':3 'loui':2 'met':7 'new':5 'st':1 'york':6

'2pm':6 'beat':3 'chicago':1 'colorado':4 'cub':2 'rocki':5

Cleveland Guardians beat Los Angeles Angels - 2pm

'2pm':7 'angel':5,6 'beat':3 'cleveland':1 'guardian':2 'los':4

Kansas City Royals beat Arizona Diamondbacks - 2pm

'2pm':7 'arizona':5 'beat':4 'citi':2 'diamondback':6 'kansa':1 'royal':3

Los Angeles beat Dodgers Texas Rangers - 2pm

'2pm':7 'angel':2 'beat':3 'dodger':4 'los':1 'ranger':6 'texa':5

San Francisco beat Giants Oakland Athletics - 2pm

'2pm':7 'athlet':6 'beat':3 'francisco':2 'giant':4 'oakland':5 'san':1

Arizona Diamondbacks beat Cincinnati Reds - 2pm

'2pm':6 'arizona':1 'beat':3 'cincinnati':4 'diamondback':2 'red':5

Milwaukee Brewers beat Seattle Mariners - 2pm

'2pm':6 'beat':3 'brewer':2 'marin':5 'milwauke':1 'seattl':4

San Diego Padres beat Chicago White Sox - 2pm

'2pm':8 'beat':4 'chicago':5 'diego':2 'padr':3 'san':1 'sox':7 'white':6

Oakland Athletics beat Milwaukee Brewers - 3pm

'3pm':6 'athlet':2 'beat':3 'brewer':5 'milwauke':4 'oakland':1

'4pm':8 'bay':2 'beat':4 'boston':5 'ray':3 'red':6 'sox':7 'tampa':1

Washington Nationals beat Miami Marlins - 5pm

'5pm':6 'beat':3 'marlin':5 'miami':4 'nation':2 'washington':1

Baltimore Orioles beat Toronto Blue Jays - 12pm

'12pm':7 'baltimor':1 'beat':3 'blue':5 'jay':6 'oriol':2 'toronto':4

Boston Red Sox beat  Tampa Bay Rays - 12pm

'12pm':8 'bay':6 'beat':4 'boston':1 'ray':7 'red':2 'sox':3 'tampa':5

'12pm':6 'astro':2 'beat':3 'houston':1 'marlin':5 'miami':4

Minnesota Twins beat Washington Nationals - 12pm

'12pm':6 'beat':3 'minnesota':1 'nation':5 'twin':2 'washington':4

New York Yankees beat Atlanta Braves - 12pm

'12pm':7 'atlanta':5 'beat':4 'brave':6 'new':1 'yanke':3 'york':2

Pittsburgh Pirates beat Philadelphia Phillies - 12pm

'12pm':6 'beat':3 'philadelphia':4 'philli':5 'pirat':2 'pittsburgh':1

Toronto Blue Jays beat Baltimore Orioles (different game) - 12:07pm

'07pm':10 '12':9 'baltimor':5 'beat':4 'blue':2 'differ':7 'game':8 'jay':3 'oriol':6 'toronto':1

Miami Marlins beat St. Louis Cardinals - 12pm

'12pm':7 'beat':3 'cardin':6 'loui':5 'marlin':2 'miami':1 'st':4

'12pm':7 'beat':4 'detroit':5 'met':3 'new':1 'tiger':6 'york':2

Cincinnati Reds beat Cleveland Guardians - 3pm

'3pm':6 'beat':3 'cincinnati':1 'cleveland':4 'guardian':5 'red':2

Los Angeles Dodgers beat Arizona Diamondbacks - 3pm

'3pm':7 'angel':2 'arizona':5 'beat':4 'diamondback':6 'dodger':3 'los':1

Oakland Athletics beat Kansas City Royals - 3pm

'3pm':7 'athlet':2 'beat':3 'citi':5 'kansa':4 'oakland':1 'royal':6

San Francisco Giants beat Chicago White Sox - 3pm

'3pm':8 'beat':4 'chicago':5 'francisco':2 'giant':3 'san':1 'sox':7 'white':6

'3pm':6 'beat':3 'chicago':4 'cub':5 'ranger':2 'texa':1

Colorado Rockies beat Milwaukee Brewers - 3pm

'3pm':6 'beat':3 'brewer':5 'colorado':1 'milwauke':4 'rocki':2

Los Angeles Angels beat San Diego Padres - 3pm

'3pm':8 'angel':2,3 'beat':4 'diego':6 'los':1 'padr':7 'san':5

Atlanta Braves beat Minnesota Twins - 12pm

'12pm':6 'atlanta':1 'beat':3 'brave':2 'minnesota':4 'twin':5

Boston Red Sox beat Pittsburgh Pirates - 12pm

'12pm':7 'beat':4 'boston':1 'pirat':6 'pittsburgh':5 'red':2 'sox':3

Houston Astros beat Detroit Tigers - 12pm

'12pm':6 'astro':2 'beat':3 'detroit':4 'houston':1 'tiger':5

New York Yankees beat Baltimore Orioles - 12pm

'12pm':7 'baltimor':5 'beat':4 'new':1 'oriol':6 'yanke':3 'york':2

Philadelphia Phillies beat New York Yankees - 12pm

'12pm':7 'beat':3 'new':4 'philadelphia':1 'philli':2 'yanke':6 'york':5

St. Louis Cardinals beat Washington Nationals - 12pm

'12pm':7 'beat':4 'cardin':3 'loui':2 'nation':6 'st':1 'washington':5

Tampa Bay Rays beat Toronto Blue Jays - 12pm

'12pm':8 'bay':2 'beat':4 'blue':6 'jay':7 'ray':3 'tampa':1 'toronto':5

Chicago White Sox beat Colorado Rockies - 3pm

'3pm':7 'beat':4 'chicago':1 'colorado':5 'rocki':6 'sox':3 'white':2

Cleveland Guardians beat Los Angeles Dodgers - 3pm

'3pm':7 'angel':5 'beat':3 'cleveland':1 'dodger':6 'guardian':2 'los':4

Kansas City Royals beat San Francisco Giants - 3pm

'3pm':8 'beat':4 'citi':2 'francisco':6 'giant':7 'kansa':1 'royal':3 'san':5

Arizona Diamondbacks beat Oakland Athletics - 3pm

'3pm':6 'arizona':1 'athlet':5 'beat':3 'diamondback':2 'oakland':4

Los Angeles Angels beat Texas Rangers - 3pm

'3pm':7 'angel':2,3 'beat':4 'los':1 'ranger':6 'texa':5

Seattle Mariners beat San Diego Padres - 3pm

'3pm':7 'beat':3 'diego':5 'marin':2 'padr':6 'san':4 'seattl':1