 is a new team at OpenAI attempting to solve the alignment problem within 4 years. 

If the team believes they have succeeded in this goal of "solv[ing] the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment in four years" by their own estimation by July 5th, 2027, this market will resolve YES. If the team dissolves, reorganizes, or pursues a separate research direction unlikely to lead to a solution to the alignment problem, this resolves NO.

Technical AI Timelines

If humanity is still around on Jan 1, 2030, then this market resolves to NO.

If humanity is not around but AI(s) are then this market resolves to YES.

If neither humanity nor AIs are around then this market does not resolve.

AI risk

Existential Risk

AI Doom

Controversial markets

Lex Fridman

New Year's Resolutions 2024

jskf's blocked markets

👴🏼 Joe Biden

Joe Biden

Future US Presidents

Politics

US Politics

Donald Trump

Twitter

Technology

Social Media

Threads

Same resolution criteria as this other market, just for end of 2023:

Predict the future

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