Someone on stage at any point is wearing a mask (to prevent COVID-19 infection)

Someone gets the red on the moisture meter

Someone in the show or the audience is wearing a fursuit

Someone makes a comparison between Aella and Taylor Swift

@Aella mentions this specific answer (the one you are reading now)

Someone who is mic’d or on stage says “statistically significant other” (reading this doesn’t count)

A contestant drinks alcohol during the show

If there's a seventh contestant, they're famous/known

Concurrent live stream viewers exceeds 1,000 at any time

Aella wears "the other dress" https://x.com/Aella_Girl/status/1753192305333264517

A contestant bets against themselves during the show, shortly before being eliminated

One of the contestants tries to promote a cryptocurrency

A contestant reveals their body count is 10 or more

"rationalussy" is said in the final song of the show

Someone will mention "The Billboard" (From "The Agency")

A contestant makes a profit betting on themselves

There is a contestant besides the 6 that were announced

someone in the show jumps in the air while on stage

Someone is unexpectedly eliminated as they are the highest option in the "who will win" market

Someone in the show mentions Aella's birthday gangbang

Aella votes off more than 1 candidate at the same time

A person with more than 10k Lesswrong karma is physically present in Bet on Love (audience is fine)

There's a surprise contestant (after Caleb)

The Super Bowl, the 49ers, the Chiefs, a coach, or a player on those teams is mentioned

Manifold receives a complaint from the venue owners related to their Bet on Love show.

A contestant reveals their body count is between 3 and 9 inclusive

Someone comments on what % better of a partner they'd need to trade up

@Joshua judges that, according to the official MPAA classification guidelines, the show would receive an NC-17 rating if it were released as a film

2 people attending the Bet on Love show negotiate a 5k mana or more limit order deal in-person

A contestant brags about their net worth (in dollars)

A contestant brags about their net worth (in mana)

A person who held a YES option on an antisocial behavior subsequently performs it, then earns a profit on that option

Manifold makes a mistake in resolution of its Bet on Love markets

The topic of "foom" or "p(doom)" is discussed

One of the contestants hits on/flirts with Aella's sister

Manifold fixes the extreme lag on the bet on love market

No technical issues with the stream after the show starts

Aella wears "the dress" https://x.com/Aella_Girl/status/1753910675380801780

Someone pushes, punches, slaps or does an equivalent motion to someone else on stage without consent.

Audio or video production mistakes interrupt the audience's ability to enjoy the live feed for greater than or equal to 15 seconds

@Aella intentionally manipulates questions on this market during the show

Eliezer Yudkowsky attends in-person or makes a public statement that he watched the show

Robin Hanson attends in person or makes a public statement that he watched the show

The event turns a NET profit (excluding anything the IRS defines as an "intangible asset," such as brand goodwill)

A contestant rates themselves on a numerical scale of attractiveness

A contestant reveals their body count is 2 or less

@Aella goes on a monologue and resolves at least 10 of the questions YES in one sentence

Caleb survives the double elimination round 

Manifold fixes the no sound problem on their Youtube livestream

A contestant places a  large bet  on themselves during the show to assert dominance

If there's a seventh contestant, it's a woman

They’ll come back to the stage for additional applause

A contestant claims their net worth is more than $500k

Projectionist running Linux. Year of the linux desktop

Something physically present says that Bet on Love happens on February 14th, 2025

A contestant sings something or otherwise produces music during the show

Aella ends up marrying a Bet on Love candidate

A contestant claims their net worth is below zero

A contestant or Aella rates someone other than themself on a numerical scale of attractiveness

A contestant bets more than 500 mana during the show

Philip survives the double elimination round 

Someone in the show mentions Taylor Swift

They sing a song about Beeminder (a sponsor)

A contestant tries to manipulate a (Bets on Love) market

Submit whatever you think might happen during the Bet on Love show here, and if it happens it will resolve yes. 

Please make sure that your submissions are understandable with just the text in the submission, so people don't have to read the comments to know how something will resolve. I reserve the right to reword answers myself to make them more clear. I may N/A submissions for any reason. 

Other mods who watch the show are also welcome to resolve questions in this market.

Bet on Love

🎨 Culture

Aella

#Politics #USPolitics #Elections #JoeBiden

2024 US Presidential Election

The Life of Biden

Global Macro

Politics

US Politics

Gerontocracy

🔦Subsidy Spotlight

2023 Market of the Year Candidates

'2024':1 'elect':5 'presidenti':4 'state':3 'unit':2

'2024':1 'elect':4 'general':3 'pakistani':2

This will resolve to the title of the English article on Wikipedia,

that has the most pageviews in February 2024 per 

PS In case of false positives (trying not to count them) or doubtful results from source, I reserve the right to resolve according to my judgement. 

Here is the list of Top 10 Articles from January 2024:

Previous lists of most-popular English Wikipedia articles are available for 

Tomek's 🟡 specials

🖥️ Technology

🌍 World

Wikipedia

'half':6 'half-tim':5 'score':1 'tie':3 'time':7

'challeng':5 'coach':2 'flag':6 'head':1 'throw':3

Any QB throws for 400 or more yards in the game

'400':5 'game':11 'qb':2 'throw':3 'yard':8

'color':3 'gatorad':1 'orang':5 'shower':2

'bowl':2 'first':6 'god':5 'mvp':3 'super':1 'thank':4

Teams are a rematch of a previous super bowl

'bowl':9 'previous':7 'rematch':4 'super':8 'team':1

'bowl':7 'first':4 'super':6 'team':1 'time':5 'winner':8

'hail':2 'made':6 'mari':3 'pass':4 'success':1

Player flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct

'conduct':5 'flag':2 'player':1 'unsportsmanlik':4

'backup':1 'game':7 'get':3 'put':4 'qb':2

'90':6 'first':5 'point':1 'score':2 'second':7

'exact':4 'one':5 'point':6 'team':1 'win':2

Player shown eating a snack on the sideline 

'eat':3 'player':1 'shown':2 'sidelin':8 'snack':5

Coach or player throws something on sideline in frustration

'coach':1 'frustrat':9 'player':3 'sidelin':7 'someth':5 'throw':4

Team scores in all 4 quarters (same team)

'50':1 'field':3 'goal':4 'made':6 'yard':2

Team scores in last 30 seconds of either half

'30':5 'either':8 'half':9 'last':4 'score':2 'second':6 'team':1

'ball':5 'catch':3 'hand':8 'one':7 'player':2

'hand':7 'heart':4 'kelc':2 'make':3 'travi':1

Mahomes completes over 258.5 passing yards

'258.5':4 'complet':2 'mahom':1 'pass':5 'yard':6

'247.5':4 'complet':2 'pass':5 'purdi':1 'yard':6

'1st':5 'get':2 'half':6 'mahom':1 'sack':3

'1st':5 'get':2 'half':6 'purdi':1 'sack':3

Both teams make 33 yard or longer field goal

'33':4 'field':8 'goal':9 'longer':7 'make':3 'team':2 'yard':5

'game':7 'last':4 'score':3 'team':1 'win':5

Shot of giant Dorito or Sphere during broadcast 

'broadcast':8 'dorito':4 'giant':3 'shot':1 'sphere':6

'5':6 'shown':3 'swift':2 'taylor':1 'time':7

Travis Kelce has over 70.5 receiving yards

'70.5':5 'kelc':2 'receiv':6 'travi':1 'yard':7

George Kittle has over 46.5 receiving yards

'46.5':5 'georg':1 'kittl':2 'receiv':6 'yard':7

'deebo':1 'samuel':2 'score':3 'touchdown':4

'georg':1 'kittl':2 'score':3 'touchdown':5

Travis Kelce catches every one of his targets

'catch':3 'everi':4 'kelc':2 'one':5 'target':8 'travi':1

Jersey number of first touchdown scorer is under 19.5

'19.5':9 'first':4 'jersey':1 'number':2 'scorer':6 'touchdown':5

Christian McCaffrey has over 90.5 rushing yards

'90.5':5 'christian':1 'mccaffrey':2 'rush':6 'yard':7

Isiah Pacheco has over 70.5 rushing yards

'70.5':5 'isiah':1 'pacheco':2 'rush':6 'yard':7

Taylor Swift in the stadium for the anthem

'anthem':8 'stadium':5 'swift':2 'taylor':1

Super Bowl MVP mentions Taylor Swift in speech

'bowl':2 'mention':4 'mvp':3 'speech':8 'super':1 'swift':6 'taylor':5

Jersey number of last touchdown scorer is even

'even':8 'jersey':1 'last':4 'number':2 'scorer':6 'touchdown':5

'49ers':1 'first':2 'halftim':6 'score':4

Mahomes scores a 1st quarter rushing touchdown

'1st':4 'mahom':1 'quarter':5 'rush':6 'score':2 'touchdown':7

'bowl':2 'mvp':3 'quarterback':6 'super':1

Both teams complete their first pass attempt

'attempt':7 'complet':3 'first':5 'pass':6 'team':2

'30':5 'chief':1 'first':2 'point':6 'score':4

'49ers':8 'field':2 'first':1 'game':5 'goal':3 'score':6

Player knocks non-player over on the sideline

'knock':2 'non':4 'non-play':3 'player':1,5 'sidelin':9

Illegal use of hands to the face penalty given

'face':7 'given':9 'hand':4 'illeg':1 'penalti':8 'use':2

'christian':1 'mccaffrey':2 'skycam':6 'wave':3

Will make every effort to resolve each item based on available information from viewing the game, NFL.com, ESPN, bookmakers, Wikipedia, and other sources. If there is no credible source, will resolve N/A. Some items will take longer to resolve than others.

Most game related questions are self-explanatory and will be resolved based on the official stat sheet. Other questions will be resolved during the kickoff and postgame shows or based on information from credible sources. Just a reminder that the following questions are related to the official Super Bowl LVIII game broadcast only.

For the questions above, the following guidelines apply:

The fun continues here for the halftime show:

🏈 NFL

🏟️ Sports

Superbowl

⚽ 🏈 Football

Super Bowl LVIII

Super Bowl

2023 is trending to be the hottest year on record.

🪸 Climate

Global Warming 

🧪 Science

Resolution base on the numbers reported here: 

Resolves YES if over $1500 worth of Mana was sold on any day in Feb 2024 

Resolves N/A if Manifold stops reporting the statistics to the public

At least 1 player to get flagged by Lichess as a cheater

'1':3 'cheater':12 'flag':7 'get':6 'least':2 'lichess':9 'player':4

'3':7 'get':5 'player':3 'titl':2 'top':6

DarkenedAlice will participate in the tournament

'darkenedalic':1 'particip':3 'tournament':6

50 people or less will join the tournament 

'50':1 'join':6 'less':4 'peopl':2 'tournament':8

Predict the future

Play-money markets. Real-world accuracy.

Compete with your friends by betting on literally anything. It's play money, not crypto, and free to play.