San Francisco 49ers beat Seattle Seahawks (10/10) 8:15 PM (Prime)

Jacksonville Jaguars beat Chicago Bears (10/13) 9:30 AM (NFL Network)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat New Orleans Saints (10/13) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Washington Commanders beat Baltimore Ravens (10/13) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Arizona Cardinals beat Green Bay Packers (10/13) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Indianapolis Colts beat Tennessee Titans (10/13) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Houston Texans beat New England Patriots (10/13) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Cleveland Browns beat Philadelphia Eagles (10/13) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Los Angeles Chargers beat Denver Broncos (10/13) 4:05 PM (CBS)

Pittsburgh Steelers beat Las Vegas Raiders (10/13) 4:05 PM (FOX)

Atlanta Falcons beat Carolina Panthers (10/13) 4:25 PM (FOX)

Detroit Lions beat Dallas Cowboys (10/13) 4:25 PM (CBS)

Cincinnati Bengals beat New York Giants (10/13) 8:20 PM (NBC)

Buffalo Bills beat New York Jets (10/14) 8:15 PM (ESPN)

J. Burrow  MORE Passing TDs than D. Jones

Z. Moss OVER 63.5 combined Rushing/ Receiving Yards

C. Brown OVER 60.5 combined Rushing/Receiving Yards

T. Tracy Jr. OVER 77.5 combined Rushing/Receiving Yards

D. Jones OVER 30.5 Rushing Yards OR records a rushing TD

M. Evans OVER 59.5 Rec Yds OR records Rec TD

J. Chase OVER 80.5 Rec Yards OR records Rec TD

T. Higgins OVER 60.5 Rec Yards OR records a Rec TD

D. Slayton OVER 59.5 Rec Yards OR records Rec TD

W. Robinson OVER 59.5 Rec Yards OR records Rec TD

T. Johnson MORE Rec Yards than A. Iosivas

Will the winning teams margin of victory be between 1-6 points?

Will the Giants Def record more TURNOVERS than Bengals Def?

Will the Giants Def record more SACKS than Bengals Def?

Will either team score a defensive or special teams TD?

Giants outscore the Bengals in the 2nd Half

Any team scores in the first 6 minutes of the game

Will any team score 3 straight times unanswered?

Will both teams score at least  20 points

Combined total touchdowns scored OVER 5.5

Will M. Gesicki, J. Hyatt, or E. Gray record a TD?

Have fun and remember to trade responsibly

Buffalo Sabres beat New Jersey Devils 12pm Oct 4

New Jersey Devils beat Buffalo Sabres 9am Oct 5

Seattle Kraken beat St. Louis Blues 3:30pm Oct 8

Florida Panthers beat Boston Bruins 6pm Oct 8

Utah Hockey Club beat Chicago Blackhawks 9pm Oct 8

Montreal Canadiens beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6pm Oct 9

Pittsburgh Penguins beat New York Rangers 6:30pm Oct 9

Edmonton Oilers beat Winnipeg Jets 9pm Oct 9

Vancouver Canucks beat Calgary Flames 9pm Oct 9

Vegas Golden beat Knights Colorado Avalanche 9pm Oct 9

Boston Bruins beat Montreal Canadiens 6pm Oct 10

Buffalo Sabres beat Los Angeles Kings 6pm Oct 10

New Jersey Devils beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6pm Oct 10

Ottawa Senators beat Florida Panthers 6pm Oct 10

New York Islanders beat Utah Hockey Club 6:30pm Oct 10

Detroit Red Wings beat Pittsburgh Penguins 7pm Oct 10

Minnesota Wild beat Columbus Blue Jackets 7pm Oct 10

Nashville Predators beat Dallas Stars 7pm Oct 10

San Jose Sharks beat St. Louis Blues 9:30pm Oct 10

Carolina Hurricanes beat Tampa Bay Lightning 6pm Oct 11

Winnipeg Jets beat Chicago Blackhawks 7pm Oct 11

Vancouver Canucks beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 11

Vegas Golden Knights beat St. Louis Blues 9pm Oct 11

Boston Bruins beat Los Angeles Kings 12pm Oct 12

Buffalo Sabres beat Florida Panthers 6pm Oct 12

Detroit Red Wings beat Nashville Predators 6pm Oct 12

Montreal Canadiens beat Ottawa Senators 6pm Oct 12

New York Rangers beat Utah Hockey Club 6pm Oct 12

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Carolina Hurricanes 6pm Oct 12

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Pittsburgh Penguins 6pm Oct 12

Washington Capitals beat New Jersey Devils 6pm Oct 12

Dallas Stars beat New York Islanders 7pm Oct 12

Minnesota Wild beat Seattle Kraken 7pm Oct 12

Colorado Avalanche beat Columbus Blue Jackets 8pm Oct 12

Calgary Flames beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 12

Edmonton Oilers beat Chicago Blackhawks 9pm Oct 12

San Jose Sharks beat Anaheim Ducks 9pm Oct 12

Winnipeg Jets beat Minnesota Wild 5pm Oct 13

Dallas Stars beat Seattle Kraken 7pm Oct 13

Edmonton Oilers beat Calgary Flames 7pm Oct 13

Vegas Golden Knights beat Anaheim Ducks 9pm Oct 13

Boston Bruins beat Florida Panthers 12pm Oct 14

New Jersey Devils beat Utah Hockey Club 12pm Oct 14

Ottawa Senators beat Los Angeles Kings 12pm Oct 14

New York Rangers beat Detroit Red Wings 6pm Oct 14

Montreal Canadiens beat Pittsburgh Penguins 6:30pm Oct 14

Colorado Avalanche beat New York Islanders 8pm Oct 14

Carolina Hurricanes beat New Jersey Devils 6pm Oct 15

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Florida Panthers 6pm Oct 15

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Vancouver Canucks 6pm Oct 15

Washington Capitals beat Vegas Golden Knights 6pm Oct 15

St. Louis Blues beat Minnesota Wild 6:30pm Oct 15

Dallas Stars beat San Jose Sharks 7pm Oct 15

Nashville Predators beat Seattle Kraken 7pm Oct 15

Calgary Flames beat Chicago Blackhawks 8pm Oct 15

Edmonton Oilers beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 15

Pittsburgh Penguins beat Buffalo Sabres 6pm Oct 16

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Los Angeles Kings 6:30pm Oct 16

Colorado Avalanche beat Boston Bruins 8:30pm Oct 16

Anaheim Ducks beat Utah Hockey Club 9pm Oct 16

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Buffalo Sabres 6pm Oct 17

Florida Panthers beat Vancouver Canucks 6pm Oct 17

Montreal Canadiens beat Los Angeles Kings 6pm Oct 17

Ottawa Senators beat New Jersey Devils 6pm Oct 17

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Vegas Golden Knights 6pm Oct 17

Washington Capitals beat Dallas Stars 6pm Oct 17

Detroit Red Wings beat New York Rangers 6:30pm Oct 17

Nashville Predators beat Edmonton Oilers 7pm Oct 17

St. Louis Blues beat New York Islanders 7pm Oct 17

Chicago Blackhawks beat San Jose Sharks 7:30pm Oct 17

Seattle Kraken beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 17

Pittsburgh Penguins beat Carolina Hurricanes 6pm Oct 18

Winnipeg Jets beat San Jose Sharks 7pm Oct 18

Colorado Avalanche beat Anaheim Ducks 8pm Oct 18

Ottawa Senators beat Tampa Bay Lightning 12pm Oct 19

Nashville Predators beat Detroit Red Wings 1pm Oct 19

Dallas Stars beat Edmonton Oilers 3pm Oct 19

Florida Panthers beat Vegas Golden Knights 5pm Oct 19

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Minnesota Wild 6pm Oct 19

New Jersey Devils beat Washington Capitals 6pm Oct 19

New York Islanders beat Montreal Canadiens 6pm Oct 19

Philadelphia Flyers beat Vancouver Canucks 6pm Oct 19

St. Louis Blues beat Carolina Hurricanes 6pm Oct 19

Toronto Maple Leafs beat New York Rangers 6pm Oct 19

Chicago Blackhawks beat Buffalo Sabres 7pm Oct 19

Utah Hockey Club beat Boston Bruins 8pm Oct 19

Seattle Kraken beat Calgary Flames 9pm Oct 19

Winnipeg Jets beat Pittsburgh Penguins 2pm Oct 20

Anaheim Ducks beat Los Angeles Kings 7pm Oct 20

San Jose Sharks beat Colorado Avalanche 7pm Oct 20

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Tampa Bay Lightning 6:30pm Oct 21

Bosnia and Herzegovina beats Hungary ⚽ 10/14

Northern Ireland beats Bulgaria ⚽ 10/15

San Francisco 49ers -3.5 @ Seattle Seahawks

Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 @ Chicago Bears (London)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 @ New Orleans Saints

Cleveland Browns +8.5 @ Philadelphia Eagles

Washington Commanders +6.5 @ Baltimore Ravens

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 @ Las Vegas Raiders

Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 @ New York Giants

Which teams will cover the spread in Week 6 of the 2024/25 NFL season? Spread lines taken from ESPN this week.

If there is a push, it will resolve as 50/50.

Let me know in the comments if you have any advice on how to improve this kind of a market 

(maybe closing off the market before the first game, so no in-play betting? and so on)

 - if there is enough interest, I will consider making it a Plus market.

Baltimore Ravens +2.50 @ Kansas City Chiefs

10/13 13:00 ET Colts: Will Anthony Richardson (oblique) play?

10/13 13:00 ET Saints: Will Derek Carr (oblique) play?

10/13 13:00 ET Colts: Will Jonathan Taylor (ankle) play?

10/13 20:20 ET Giants: Will Malik Nabers (concussion) play?

10/13 16:25 ET Panthers: Will Diontae Johnson (ankle) play?

10/13 09:30 ET Jaguars: Will Evan Engram (hamstring) play?

10/13 09:30 ET Jaguars: Will Gabe Davis (knee) play?

10/13 20:20 ET Giants: Will Devin Singletary (groin) play?

10/13 13:00 ET Colts: Will Michael Pittman (back) play?

10/13 13:00 ET Colts: Will Josh Downs (toe) play?

10/13 16:05 ET Chargers: Will Joey Bosa (hip) play?

10/13 16:05 ET Raiders: Will Jakobi Meyers (ankle) play?

10/13 16:05 ET Raiders: Will Zamir White (groin) play?

10/13 13:00 ET Texans: Will Joe Mixon (ankle) play?

10/13 13:00 ET Commanders: Will Brian Robinson (knee) play?

10/14 20:15 ET Bills: Will James Cook (toe) play?

10/14 20:15 ET Bills: Will Khalil Shakir (ankle) play?

10/14 20:15 ET Jets: Will Tyler Conklin (hip) play?

If the player records at least 1 snap it will resolve YES.

The 14th annual League of Legends World Championship will be held from September 25, 2024 to November 2, 2024.

This market will resolve to the winner of the tournament.  If the tournament is not completed by December 31, 2024, then the market will resolve to 

 category was used during the qualification phase when some teams had yet to qualify.  The market will never resolve to 

; however if a team is disqualified and replaced by another team, that new team will be added and be split out of Other.

: Eliezer and I publicly stated some predictions about AI performance on the IMO by 2025.... My final prediction (after significantly revising my guesses after looking up IMO questions and medal thresholds) was:

Eliezer spent less time revising his prediction, but said (earlier in the discussion):

So I think we have Paul at <8%, Eliezer at >16% for AI made before the IMO is able to get a gold (under time controls 

 of grand challenge) in one of 2022-2025.

Resolves to YES if either Eliezer or Paul acknowledge that an AI has succeeded at this task.

https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-machine-learning-model-score-f0d93ee0119b

Update: As noted by Paul, the qualifying years for IMO completion are 2023, 2024, and 2025.

Update 2024-06-21: Description formatting

Update 2024-07-25: Changed title from "by 2025" to "by the end of 2025" for clarity

EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.

Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme 

 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.

However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) 

there will eventually be a model called GPT-5

 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5".

 of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, & Arizona in the 2024 presidential election. It resolves 

Resolution will be based on the AP & Fox News decision desks. If they both declare a winner in these four states, this question will resolve 48 hours later if those calls have not been retracted.

This is based on the inaugural longbets.org bet between Ray Kurzweil (YES) and Mitch Kapor (NO). It's a much more stringent Turing test than just "person on the street chats informally with a bot and can't tell it from a human". In fact, it's carefully constructed to be a proxy for AGI. Experts who know all the bot's weaknesses get to grill it for hours. Kurzweil and Kapor agree that LLMs as of 2023 don't and can't pass this Turing test.

Personally I think Kapor will win and Kurzweil will lose -- that a computer will not pass this version of the Turing test this decade.

((Bayesian) Update: But I admit the probability has jumped up recently! I created this Manifold market almost a year before ChatGPT launched.)

Companion paper here with description of synthesis:

Updating to answer some more common questions. If anything here differs from the 2023-07-27 update, this update should supersede that one. I believe what I have written below maintains the spirit of the market and preserves its predictivity against weird edge cases. 

This question is specifically about LK-99. In the absence of overwhelming expert consensus (see below about resolution caveats), adding materials not in the original synthesis or characterization (replacing Cu with Au, Ag, etc) will not count toward a YES resolution. 

original XRD is OK, up to a point. I think I would be more accepting of this is it’s convincingly shown that the impurities are important to the superconductivity of LK-99. 

Synthesis of LK-99 by other means is totally fine, as long as the material characterization satisfies the criteria above. 

The original intent of this market was to bet on whether LK-99 exhibited the hallmarks of traditional superconductivity, but there have been a few questions on what happens if LK-99 is regions of 1D superconductivity in an insulating matrix, so it doesn’t display the expected R = 0 behavior below Tc. 

At this point, I’m going to hew to the original resolution criteria, in order of importance. 

While superconductor-insulator transitions have been observed, I’m not really familiar with them. Additionally, we don’t have good evidence that it is impossible to observe R=0 in LK-99, since at least 

 measurements show decreasing resistivity as a function of temperature. If we end up in a world where LK-99 convincingly displays a Meissner effect, but doesn’t show the expected resistivity behavior, I will solicit opinions from subject matter experts. After all, it would seem perverse to resolve NO if the majority of superconductivity experts think this is a YES.

I reserve the right to resolve to a probability if the experts I ask are split on the question of superconductivity.

I reserve the right to resolve according to whatever Wikipedia says about this material by Jan 1, 2025, especially if the experts I ask blow me off.

I reserve the right to revisit the resolution criteria if LK-99 or LK-99-like materials end up rewriting what we thought we knew about superconductivity. 

********************************************

Pasting my comment on resolution criteria

We're clearly all here because a) it's fun, and b) we're interested in room temperature superconductivity, not whether some other experimental group gets the same kinda sus data as the original paper. So, when I write 'replicate' in the question I am specifically asking: is the room temperature, ambient pressure superconductivity of the compound LK-99 convincingly demonstrated?

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