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Mira
Trending
136
(M1000 subsidy!) Will a prompt that enables GPT-4 to solve easy Sudoku puzzles be found? (2023)
54%
chance
Bet YES
Bet NO
9
Dustin
Trending
1573
Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?
71%
chance
Bet YES
Bet NO
29
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Trending
249
If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
47
_au_
Trending
51
Will FLI's "Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter" result in a successful 6+ month pause of training powerful AIs?
10%
chance
Bet YES
Bet NO
4
Gigacasting
Trending
158
Will Trump be indicted by March 31, 2023?
4%
chance
Bet YES
Bet NO
2
Isaac King
Closing soon
in a day
Gary Marcus prediction: 2023 will see the first death attributable to large language models
86%
chance
Bet YES
Bet NO
1
Matthew Barnett
Trending
34
Will it be verified that Sam Altman signed the AI moratorium open letter before April 5th, 2023?
6%
chance
Bet YES
Bet NO
5
Aurelius
Trending
498
Will TikTok be banned in the US or forced to change ownership?
58%
chance
Bet YES
Bet NO
12
Scott Alexander
Trending
352
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
60%
chance
Bet YES
Bet NO
3
Matthew Barnett
Trending
43
Will any top AI lab commit to a moratorium on giant AI experiments before 2024?
30%
chance
Bet YES
Bet NO
3
Rai
Trending
1402
Will Google Search include a chatbot by end of June 2023?
38%
chance
Bet YES
Bet NO
24
Isaac King
Trending
287
Binance collapses before the end of 2023
32%
chance
Bet YES
Bet NO
20
MP
Trending
90
Will Twitter be put behind a paywall by Jul 2023?
20%
chance
Bet YES
Bet NO
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I and many of my friends visit their site daily or at least weekly, and I often link them on Mantic Mondays.
Scott Alexander
Astral Codex Ten
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