Bosnia and Herzegovina beats Germany ⚽ 10/11

San Francisco 49ers beat Seattle Seahawks (10/10) 8:15 PM (Prime)

Jacksonville Jaguars beat Chicago Bears (10/13) 9:30 AM (NFL Network)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat New Orleans Saints (10/13) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Washington Commanders beat Baltimore Ravens (10/13) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Arizona Cardinals beat Green Bay Packers (10/13) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Indianapolis Colts beat Tennessee Titans (10/13) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Houston Texans beat New England Patriots (10/13) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Cleveland Browns beat Philadelphia Eagles (10/13) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Los Angeles Chargers beat Denver Broncos (10/13) 4:05 PM (CBS)

Pittsburgh Steelers beat Las Vegas Raiders (10/13) 4:05 PM (FOX)

Atlanta Falcons beat Carolina Panthers (10/13) 4:25 PM (FOX)

Detroit Lions beat Dallas Cowboys (10/13) 4:25 PM (CBS)

Cincinnati Bengals beat New York Giants (10/13) 8:20 PM (NBC)

Buffalo Bills beat New York Jets (10/14) 8:15 PM (ESPN)

Buffalo Sabres beat New Jersey Devils 12pm Oct 4

New Jersey Devils beat Buffalo Sabres 9am Oct 5

Seattle Kraken beat St. Louis Blues 3:30pm Oct 8

Florida Panthers beat Boston Bruins 6pm Oct 8

Utah Hockey Club beat Chicago Blackhawks 9pm Oct 8

Montreal Canadiens beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6pm Oct 9

Pittsburgh Penguins beat New York Rangers 6:30pm Oct 9

Edmonton Oilers beat Winnipeg Jets 9pm Oct 9

Vancouver Canucks beat Calgary Flames 9pm Oct 9

Vegas Golden beat Knights Colorado Avalanche 9pm Oct 9

Boston Bruins beat Montreal Canadiens 6pm Oct 10

Buffalo Sabres beat Los Angeles Kings 6pm Oct 10

New Jersey Devils beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6pm Oct 10

Ottawa Senators beat Florida Panthers 6pm Oct 10

New York Islanders beat Utah Hockey Club 6:30pm Oct 10

Detroit Red Wings beat Pittsburgh Penguins 7pm Oct 10

Minnesota Wild beat Columbus Blue Jackets 7pm Oct 10

Nashville Predators beat Dallas Stars 7pm Oct 10

San Jose Sharks beat St. Louis Blues 9:30pm Oct 10

Carolina Hurricanes beat Tampa Bay Lightning 6pm Oct 11

Winnipeg Jets beat Chicago Blackhawks 7pm Oct 11

Vancouver Canucks beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 11

Vegas Golden Knights beat St. Louis Blues 9pm Oct 11

Boston Bruins beat Los Angeles Kings 12pm Oct 12

Buffalo Sabres beat Florida Panthers 6pm Oct 12

Detroit Red Wings beat Nashville Predators 6pm Oct 12

Montreal Canadiens beat Ottawa Senators 6pm Oct 12

New York Rangers beat Utah Hockey Club 6pm Oct 12

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Carolina Hurricanes 6pm Oct 12

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Pittsburgh Penguins 6pm Oct 12

Washington Capitals beat New Jersey Devils 6pm Oct 12

Dallas Stars beat New York Islanders 7pm Oct 12

Minnesota Wild beat Seattle Kraken 7pm Oct 12

Colorado Avalanche beat Columbus Blue Jackets 8pm Oct 12

Calgary Flames beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 12

Edmonton Oilers beat Chicago Blackhawks 9pm Oct 12

San Jose Sharks beat Anaheim Ducks 9pm Oct 12

Winnipeg Jets beat Minnesota Wild 5pm Oct 13

Dallas Stars beat Seattle Kraken 7pm Oct 13

Edmonton Oilers beat Calgary Flames 7pm Oct 13

Vegas Golden Knights beat Anaheim Ducks 9pm Oct 13

10/13 13:00 ET Colts: Will Anthony Richardson (oblique) play?

10/13 13:00 ET Saints: Will Derek Carr (oblique) play?

10/13 13:00 ET Colts: Will Jonathan Taylor (ankle) play?

10/13 20:20 ET Giants: Will Malik Nabers (concussion) play?

10/13 16:25 ET Panthers: Will Diontae Johnson (ankle) play?

10/13 09:30 ET Jaguars: Will Evan Engram (hamstring) play?

10/13 09:30 ET Jaguars: Will Gabe Davis (knee) play?

10/13 20:20 ET Giants: Will Devin Singletary (groin) play?

10/13 13:00 ET Colts: Will Michael Pittman (back) play?

10/13 13:00 ET Colts: Will Josh Downs (toe) play?

10/13 16:05 ET Chargers: Will Joey Bosa (hip) play?

10/13 16:05 ET Raiders: Will Jakobi Meyers (ankle) play?

10/13 16:05 ET Raiders: Will Zamir White (groin) play?

10/13 13:00 ET Texans: Will Joe Mixon (ankle) play?

If the player records at least 1 snap it will resolve YES.

8/15 7:00 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against the (Chicago) Sky?

8/15 7:00 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics WIN against the (Minnesota) Lynx?

8/15 8:00 PM: Will the (New York) Liberty WIN against the (Los Angeles) Sparks?

8/16 6:30 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storm WIN against the (Atlanta) Dream?

8/16 6:30 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against the (Indiana) Fever?

8/16 8:30 PM: Will the (Connecticut) Sun WIN against the (Dallas) Wings?

 8/17 1:00 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx WIN against the (Washington) Mystics?

8/17 3:00 PM: Will the (New York) Liberty WIN against the (Las Vegas) Aces?

8/17 4:00 PM: Will the (Chicago) Sky WIN against the (Los Angeles) Sparks?

8/18 2:00 PM: Will the (Connecticut) Sun WIN against the (Atlanta) Dream?

8/18 2:30 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storm WIN against the (Indiana) Fever?

8/18 5:00 PM: Will the (Los Angeles) Spark WIN against the (Las Vegas) Aces?

8/18 8:00 PM: Will the (Chicago) Sky WIN against the (Phoenix) Mercury?

8/20 6:00 PM: Will the (Los Angeles) Sparks WIN against the (Connecticut) Sun?

8/20 6:00 PM: Will the (Dallas) Wings WIN against the (New York) Liberty?

8/20 6:00 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storm WIN against the (Washington) Mystics?

8/21 6:30 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against the (Atlanta) Dream?

8/21 8:30 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx WIN against the (Las Vegas) Aces?

8/22 6:00 PM: Will the (Dallas) Wings WIN against the (New York) Liberty?

8/23 6:30 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against the (Atlanta) Dream?

8/23 6:30 PM: Will the (Chicago) Sky WIN against the (Connecticut) Sun?

8/23 6:30 PM: Will the (Los Angeles) Sparks WIN against the (Washington) Mystics?

8/23 8:30 PM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces WIN against the (Minnesota) Lynx?

8/24 6:00 PM: Will the (Connecticut) Sun WIN against the (New York) Liberty?

8/24 7:00 PM: Will the (Indiana) Fever WIN against the (Minnesota) Lynx?

8/25 11:00 AM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces WIN against the (Chicago) Sky?

8/25 3:00 pM: Will the (Los Angeles) Sparks WIN against the (Dallas) Wings?

8/26 6:30 PM: Will the (Indiana) Fever WIN against the (Atlanta) Dream?

8/26 9:00 PM: Will the (New York) Liberty WIN against the (Phoenix) Mercury?

8/26 9:00 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics WIN against the (Seattle) Storm?

8/27 7:00 PM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces WIN against the (Dallas) Wings?

8/28 6:00 PM: Will the (Connecticut) Sun WIN against the (Indiana) Fever?

8/28 7:00 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics WIN against the (Chicago) Sky?

8/28 9:00 PM: Will the (New York) Liberty WIN against the (Los Angeles) Sparks?

8/28 9:00 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx WIN against the (Phoenix) Mercury?

8/29 6:00 PM: Will the (Atlanta) Dream WIN against the (Seattle) Storm?

8/30 6:30 PM: Will the (Indiana) Fever WIN against the (Chicago) Sky?

8/30 6:30 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx WIN against the (Dallas) Wings?

8/30 6:30 PM: Will the (Atlanta) Dream WIN against the (Las Vegas) Aces?

8/30 9:00 PM: Will the (New York) Liberty WIN against the (Seattle) Storm?

 8/31 2:00 PM: Will the (Connecticut) Sun WIN against the (Washington) Mystics?

 9/1 12:00 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storm WIN against the (Connecticut) Sun?

 9/1 2:00 PM: Will the (Chicago) Sky WIN against the (Minnesota) Lynx?

 9/1 3:00 PM: Will the (Indiana) Fever WIN against the (Dallas) Wings?

 9/1 3:00 PM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces WIN against the (Phoenix) Mercury?

 9/1 6:00 PM: Will the (Atlanta) Dream WIN against the (Los Angeles) Sparks?

9/3 6:00 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storm WIN against the (Connecticut) Sun?

9/3 7:00 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics WIN against the (Dallas) Wings?

9/3 9:00 PM: Will the (Chicago) Sky WIN against the (Las Vegas) Aces?

9/3 9:00 PM: Will the (Atlanta) Dream WIN against the (Phoenix) Mercury?

9/4 6:00 PM: Will the (Los Angeles) Sparks WIN against the (Indiana) Fever?

9/5 6:00 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storm WIN against the (New York) Liberty?

9/5 9:00 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics WIN against the (Phoenix) Mercury?

9/6 6:30 PM: Will the (Dallas) Wings WIN against the (Atlanta) Dream?

9/6 6:30 PM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces WIN against the (Connecticut) Sun?

9/6 6:30 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx WIN against the (Indiana) Fever?

9/6 8:30 PM: Will the (Los Angeles) Sparks WIN against the (Chicago) Sky?

9/7 8:00 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against the (Seattle) Storm?

9/8 2:00 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx WIN against the (Washington) Mystics?

9/8 3:00 PM: Will the (Atlanta) Dream WIN against the (Indiana) Fever?

9/8 3:00 PM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces WIN against the (New York) Liberty?

9/8 8:00 PM: Will the (Connecticut) Sun WIN against the (Los Angeles) Sparks?

9/8 5:00 PM: Will the (Dallas) Wings WIN against the (Chicago) Sky?

9/10 6:30 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx WIN against the (Atlanta) Dream?

9/10 7:00 PM: Will the (New York) Liberty WIN against the (Dallas) Wings?

9/10 9:00 PM: Will the (Connecticut) Sun WIN against the (Los Angeles) Sparks?

9/11 6:00 PM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces WIN against the (Indiana) Fever?

9/11 7:00 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics WIN against the (Chicago) Sky?

9/11 9:00 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storm WIN against the (Los Angeles) Sparks?

9/12 7:00 PM: Will the (New York) Liberty WIN against the (Dallas) Wings?

9/13 6:30 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics WIN against the (Atlanta) Dream?

9/13 6:30 PM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces WIN against the (Indiana) Fever?

9/13 6:30 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storm WIN against the (Dallas) Wings?

9/13 6:30 PM: Will the (Chicago) Sky WIN against the (Minnesota) Lynx?

9/13 9:00 PM: Will the (Connecticut) Sun WIN against the (Phoenix) Mercury?

10/20 WNBA Finals Game 5 (if necessary) Team 1 v. Team 2?

 9/15 2:00 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx WIN against the (New York) Liberty?

 9/15 2:00 PM: Will the (Atlanta) Dream WIN against the (Washington) Mystics?

 9/15 5:00 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against the (Chicago) Sky?

 9/15 5:00 PM: Will the (Connecticut) Sun WIN against the (Las Vegas) Aces?

 9/15 5:00 PM: Will the (Los Angeles) Sparks WIN against the (Seattle) Storm?

9/17 6:00 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx WIN against the (Connecticut) Sun?

9/17 6:00 PM: Will the (New York) Liberty WIN against the (Washington) Mystics?

9/17 6:30 PM: Will the (Chicago) Sky WIN against the (Atlanta) Dream?

9/17 9:00 PM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces WIN against the (Seattle) Storm?

9/17 9:30 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against the (Los Angeles) Sparks?

9/19 6:00 PM: Will the (Chicago) Sky WIN against the (Connecticut) Sun?

9/19 6:00 PM: Will the (Atlanta) Dream WIN against the (New York) Liberty?

9/19 6:00 PM: Will the (Indiana) Fever WIN against the (Washington) Mystics?

9/19 7:00 PM: Will the (Los Angeles) Sparks WIN against the (Minnesota) Lynx?

9/19 9:00 PM: Will the (Dallas) Wings WIN against the (Las Vegas) Aces?

9/19 9:00 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storms WIN against the (Phoenix) Mercury?

 9/25 6:30 PM: Will the (Indiana) Fever WIN against the (Connecticut) Sun?

9/22 12:00 PM: Will the (Atlanta) Dream WIN against the (New York) Liberty?

9/22 2:00 PM: Will the (Indiana) Fever WIN against the (Connecticut) Sun?

9/22 4:00 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against the (Minnesota) Lynx?

9/22 9:00 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storn WIN against the (Las Vegas) Aces?

9/24 6:30 PM: Will the (Atlanta) Dream WIN against the (New York) Liberty?

9/24 8:30 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storn WIN against the (Las Vegas) Aces?

9/25 8:30 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against the (Minnesota) Lynx?

Each game is resolved independently of the others

The question will close and be resolved as close to the final buzzer as my schedule permits.

The question will be resolved with results published at 

Oakland A’s [even if they no longer play in Oakland]

At the conclusion of the 2024 MLB postseason, who will win the World Series?

Note: Regardless if teams move cities during the 2023-2024 offseason, your vote for them will still count.

EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

: Eliezer and I publicly stated some predictions about AI performance on the IMO by 2025.... My final prediction (after significantly revising my guesses after looking up IMO questions and medal thresholds) was:

Eliezer spent less time revising his prediction, but said (earlier in the discussion):

So I think we have Paul at <8%, Eliezer at >16% for AI made before the IMO is able to get a gold (under time controls 

 of grand challenge) in one of 2022-2025.

Resolves to YES if either Eliezer or Paul acknowledge that an AI has succeeded at this task.

https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-machine-learning-model-score-f0d93ee0119b

Update: As noted by Paul, the qualifying years for IMO completion are 2023, 2024, and 2025.

Update 2024-06-21: Description formatting

Update 2024-07-25: Changed title from "by 2025" to "by the end of 2025" for clarity

This is the official record of a real-money bet between me and Svaťa Pleva. By new year's eve 2029, if something very life-altering has happened with AI since 2024-10-07, Svaťa owes Danny $100. Otherwise Danny owes Svaťa $10.

Of course AI is already somewhat life-changing for us nerds but normal humans are largely ignoring it so far. The question is, will they be able to continue to do so or not? 

AI continues to be a cool and useful tool. Maybe when you talk to a customer service person it's actually an AI -- normal people won't know or care which. There'll be new scams and deepfakes and such but people will learn to adapt and ultimately life will be normal.

Something as huge and as unignorable as one of the following happens:

3. New tech that's as life-altering as the internet or smartphones (and that everyone is actually using, just as everyone uses smartphones and the internet today)

We'll add to that list as we discuss further. 

Do ask clarifying questions if you want to bet in this market.

Entropy-based sampling (colloquially, "the shrek sampler") is a term for a new class of sampling methods for LLMs, intended to "simulate something similar to o1's CoT or [Anthropic's models] to get much better results using inference time compute."

This market will resolve YES if by the end of 2024, there has been a credible demonstration that applying entropy-based sampling to a Llama3.1 model (base or Instruct) leads to reasoning scores that are better than the baseline of the corresponding Llama3.1 Instruct model with regular chain-of-thought (CoT). Specifically, someone must post a comment on this market linking to credible evidence that entropy-based sampling method produces validation accuracies at least 2 percentage points higher than baseline across multiple reasoning benchmarks. Eligible "reasoning benchmarks" are:

To establish the baseline to compare against, if Meta has not already published official scores on a given benchmark for that model w/ regular CoT, it is acceptable to produce unofficial scores and link them alongside the comparison results.

As an example, it would suffice to post a comment on this market linking to logs of Llama 3.1 8B with a single set of sampling parameters producing BOTH:

This market will resolve NO at the end of 2024 otherwise. If there is substantial disagreement about the validity of the baseline or comparison scores, I will resolve the market based on my best understanding of the situation.

Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.

Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme 

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