Protests have been going on for several days around the country now, following the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody, and at least some involved in the protests are calling for regime change. However, large-scale protests have happened before and have not resulted in regime change. Will this time be different?

This question will resolve as YES if the collapse of the regime is reported by a reputable news source such as AP or Reuters by 11:59 pm on December 31, 2023. Otherwise, it will resolve as NO.

World

Global Macro

Olivia

Politics

This question resolves YES even if Xi loses his 3rd term but is a "lame duck" president. 

This question Resolves NO if Xi Dies (naturally or unnaturally) or gets couped out of office. 

China

Elections: World

Chess

Sinquefield Cup Chess Scandal

Sports

Nicholas Charette

Vasily Kuznetsov

Max Görlitz

J. F. Jurchen

Mr Stone

Nick Allen

Cosmo

Which country is primarily responsible for the recent attack on Nordstream 1 and 2? Resolves to the consensus as of March 31st 2023. This will only resolve to one answer, and if multiple answers are applicable I will choose the 'best' answer (most specific and correct). If two equivalent answers are applicable I will choose the first answer posted. If no country is responsible for the attack by current consensus, this will resolve N/A. If I believe that there is no consensus on this, this will resolve N/A.

For reference, this is the attack I am referring to: 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63044747

Which country is primarily responsible for the Nordstream attack?

 → Which country is primarily responsible for the Nordstream attack? (IF there is a consensus at close)

Russia

This market resolves "YES" if Russian officials announce general mobilization before January 1, 2023. If general mobilization is not declared explicitly but it is obvious that some equivalent process has started, then this market also resolves "YES."

See also https://manifold.markets/AVS/will-russia-declare-general-mobiliz

Russian Mobilization

Wars

Market resolves to YES in the event that a nuclear weapon is confirmed to be launched for combat, non-testing purposes before Jan 1, 2023, anywhere in the world.

Nuclear Risk

Will the project "Feeling machines: Brain-inspired artificial general intelligence" receive receive 

Remember, betting in this market is not the only way you can have a shot at winning part of the $13,000 in cash prizes! As explained

, you can also win money by sharing information or arguments that change our mind about which projects to fund or how much to fund them. If you have an argument or public information for or against this project, share it as a comment below. If you have private information or information that has the potential to harm anyone, please send it to 

Below, you can find some selected quotes from the public copy of the application. The text beneath each heading was written by the applicant. Alternatively, you can 

 to see the entire public portion of their application. 

Why the applicant thinks we should fund this project

Implementing machines with computational analogues of affective feelings (valence/emotion/moods) present unique challenges to AI safety that are currently underrepresented and not well understood. This project should be funded to increase awareness and understanding of this area of AI alignment research, and to foster more research in AI alignment that connects directly to work in computational neuroscience.

The project involves translating academic literature on how aspects of mentality underwrite general intelligence, and the implications of this for AI safety, into a maximally accessible and didactic format (mostly, long-read posts for the Alignment Forum).

The first step is to make existing academic research (including my own) on how self-modelling serves adaptive and intelligent behaviour in biological agents accessible for a broad readership in the alignment community. This part of the project identifies the role played by affective feelings in facilitating domain-general intelligence. Specifically, this part of the project will consider key factors identified by AI researchers as lacking in current systems, and provide an account of how biological agents overcome these challenges. The focus is on how feeling guides i) balancing exploration and exploitation; ii) flexible formation and (goal-directed) manipulation of abstractions, and; ii) underwrites our capacity for metareasoning and attentional allocation through mental action (selection of 

computations to perform). The second step is a new strand of research, which uses this lens on general intelligence to consider particular issues in AI alignment.

Here you can review the entire public portion of the application (which contains a lot more information about the applicant and their project):

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qJ70dKpK-tzdySzMxgC42wjEeBRqEvu6vVBl1aOGZEk/edit#

Effective Altruism

Clear Thinking

Clearer Thinking Regrants

Will the project "Socio-political impacts of nuclear winter" receive receive 

A historical and sociological study of disasters affecting humanity, ranging from volcanic eruptions, war, and famine, to hypothesize the likely effects of nuclear winter and uncover best practices for maintaining social collaboration and reducing risk of civilizational collapse.

To be blunt, this project should be funded because I believe it’s the only one of its kind. I’ve never met anyone, or anyone who knows anyone, researching the impact of nuclear winter on society, yet this means we may confront this event completely blind. For decades, scientists have hypothesized about the likelihood of and the environmental impact of nuclear winter, but never expanded this into its social implications. We have an abundance of historical evidence that environmental catastrophe has direct implications for the trajectory of human civilization and human flourishing, but no well-reasoned estimations of what nuclear winter would mean for us beyond our climate.

How this compares against similar projects

 is engaged in very similar work in terms of operating at the level of tertiary prevention - minimizing damage after disaster has already occurred. While I believe their work is valuable, I think their projects are also dependent on questions they are not currently researching, which I would aim to address: what infrastructure is most likely to collapse, or be threatened, by nuclear winter? How many people will be too traumatized to maintain a semblance of normalcy? How will we ensure the maintenance of trust, and international contract enforcement, to keep overseas trade operating as much as possible and minimize food hoarding?

https://docs.google.com/document/d/14pJ81a7PmAqNUiFSNdQYAnXm88G1aLCsJANzqfA6p3M/edit

This market is resolved when a permanent peace treaty is signed between Ukrainian and Russian governments.

Will the project "Reducing uncertainty surrounding feasibility and cost-effectiveness of shelters as an intervention for reducing X-risk by technical assessment of in-situ food production and life support systems." receive receive 

Shelters may provide a means to reduce the likelihood of  extinction from risks such as pandemics and nuclear war. The recent Sheltering Humanity against Existential Risks (SHELTER) conference highlighted several uncertainties in the potential value of shelters as an X-risk intervention. Of these uncertainties, one aspect concerns the technical feasibility and cost of surface independent self sufficient food and life support systems (water, energy). Filling this knowledge gap would allow informed decision making to either rule out shelters as a cost effective x-risk intervention or catalyze development and deployment, estimated at 100 million to 1 billion USD (high value of information). 

 is uniquely positioned to lead research in this area due to knowledge in relevant resilient food production methods and experience in cost effectiveness analysis.

Here's the mechanism by which the applicant expects their project will achieve positive outcomes.

Preliminary technical analysis fleshes out the technical feasibility and requirements of shelters’ life support systems (food, water, energy) reducing current uncertainties around cost and increasing specificity and tangibility of developing shelters. This allows informed decision making on whether shelters should be pursued or abandoned as a cost effective means of X-risk reduction. If results are favorable, we expect that interested parties will be motivated to begin further R&D, using preliminary technical analysis to inform development plans. Interested parties (industry, non-profit, gov) set up orgs and develop and pilot required tech. Parties collaborate to combine various technologies to create and pilot shelter design(s). Full scale implementation of shelters capable of sustaining a minimum viable population occurs. Humanity has the capacity to survive extinction-level events and repopulate after a range of X-risks (though this is dependent on results of civilization recovery research). 

What would they do with the amount specified?

Stakeholder mapping and consultation- $92,500 USD:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1dOYCSRS88YYRCUODr42uq3QsEnyvTAeL0jl9mdkEP5U/edit

A market for every question