Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Atlanta Falcons (10/03) 8:15 PM (Prime)

New York Jets beat Minnesota Vikings (10/06) 9:30 AM (NFL Network)

Carolina Panthers beat Chicago Bears (10/06) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Cleveland Browns beat Washington Commanders (10/06) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Miami Dolphins beat New England Patriots (10/06) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Indianapolis Colts beat Jacksonville Jaguars (10/06) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Buffalo Bills beat Houston Texans (10/06) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Baltimore Ravens beat Cincinnati Bengals (10/06) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Las Vegas Raiders beat Denver Broncos (10/06) 4:05 PM (CBS)

Arizona Cardinals beat San Francisco 49ers (10/06) 4:05 PM (FOX)

New York Giants beat Seattle Seahawks (10/06) 4:25 PM (FOX)

Green Bay Packers beat Los Angeles Rams (10/06) 4:25 PM (CBS)

Dallas Cowboys beat Pittsburgh Steelers (10/06) 8:20 PM (NBC)

New Orleans Saints beat Kansas City Chiefs (10/07) 8:15 PM (ESPN)

Get ready for an exhilarating season of football!

 (⭐4.96) for lightning-fast market resolutions and surprise market liquidity boosts all year long. Don't miss out—join the excitement today!

Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes

AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back

A Starting QB gets put on IR in the week after

Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game

Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game

Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game*

 Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game

WRs score more TDs than RBs (receiving + rushing for both)

Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)

Any player throws for more than 300 yards and loses

A team scores at least 24 points before halftime

A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 2 TDs (including passing)

4th and Goal from the 1 or shorter stopped

Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT (tying or go-ahead)

A 1pm EST game is still going when a 4:25pm EST game starts

Will a championship belt change teams (https://shorturl.at/2bXlq) (https://shorturl.at/XwDBj)

Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)* https://tinyurl.com/highestgame

For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name

LA teams finish with a better record than NY teams

Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams

3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game

 Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Chargers, Philadelphia Eagles and Tennessee Titans

Add your own props related to Week Five (if it is super specific be prepared to help me find an answer). Answers should be able to be resolved by about a Week after Week Five finishes, but not later than that.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5 @ Atlanta Falcons

New York Jets +2.5 @ Minnesota Vikings (London)

Baltimore Ravens -2.5 @ Cincinnati Bengals

Cleveland Browns +3 @ Washington Commanders

Indianapolis Colts +3 @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Arizona Cardinals +7.5 @ San Francisco 49ers

Green Bay Packers -3.5 @ Los Angeles Rams

Dallas Cowboys +2.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers

New Orleans Saints +5 @ Kansas City Chiefs

Which teams will cover the spread in Week 5 of the 2024/25 NFL season? Spread lines taken from ESPN this week.

If there is a push, it will resolve as 50/50.

Let me know in the comments if you have any advice on how to improve this kind of a market 

(maybe closing off the market before the first game, so no in-play betting? and so on)

 - if there is enough interest, I will consider making it a Plus market.

Baltimore Ravens +2.50 @ Kansas City Chiefs

8/15 7:00 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against the (Chicago) Sky?

8/15 7:00 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics WIN against the (Minnesota) Lynx?

8/15 8:00 PM: Will the (New York) Liberty WIN against the (Los Angeles) Sparks?

8/16 6:30 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storm WIN against the (Atlanta) Dream?

8/16 6:30 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against the (Indiana) Fever?

8/16 8:30 PM: Will the (Connecticut) Sun WIN against the (Dallas) Wings?

 8/17 1:00 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx WIN against the (Washington) Mystics?

8/17 3:00 PM: Will the (New York) Liberty WIN against the (Las Vegas) Aces?

8/17 4:00 PM: Will the (Chicago) Sky WIN against the (Los Angeles) Sparks?

8/18 2:00 PM: Will the (Connecticut) Sun WIN against the (Atlanta) Dream?

8/18 2:30 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storm WIN against the (Indiana) Fever?

8/18 5:00 PM: Will the (Los Angeles) Spark WIN against the (Las Vegas) Aces?

8/18 8:00 PM: Will the (Chicago) Sky WIN against the (Phoenix) Mercury?

8/20 6:00 PM: Will the (Los Angeles) Sparks WIN against the (Connecticut) Sun?

8/20 6:00 PM: Will the (Dallas) Wings WIN against the (New York) Liberty?

8/20 6:00 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storm WIN against the (Washington) Mystics?

8/21 6:30 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against the (Atlanta) Dream?

8/21 8:30 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx WIN against the (Las Vegas) Aces?

8/22 6:00 PM: Will the (Dallas) Wings WIN against the (New York) Liberty?

8/23 6:30 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against the (Atlanta) Dream?

8/23 6:30 PM: Will the (Chicago) Sky WIN against the (Connecticut) Sun?

8/23 6:30 PM: Will the (Los Angeles) Sparks WIN against the (Washington) Mystics?

8/23 8:30 PM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces WIN against the (Minnesota) Lynx?

8/24 6:00 PM: Will the (Connecticut) Sun WIN against the (New York) Liberty?

8/24 7:00 PM: Will the (Indiana) Fever WIN against the (Minnesota) Lynx?

8/25 11:00 AM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces WIN against the (Chicago) Sky?

8/25 3:00 pM: Will the (Los Angeles) Sparks WIN against the (Dallas) Wings?

8/26 6:30 PM: Will the (Indiana) Fever WIN against the (Atlanta) Dream?

8/26 9:00 PM: Will the (New York) Liberty WIN against the (Phoenix) Mercury?

8/26 9:00 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics WIN against the (Seattle) Storm?

8/27 7:00 PM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces WIN against the (Dallas) Wings?

8/28 6:00 PM: Will the (Connecticut) Sun WIN against the (Indiana) Fever?

8/28 7:00 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics WIN against the (Chicago) Sky?

8/28 9:00 PM: Will the (New York) Liberty WIN against the (Los Angeles) Sparks?

8/28 9:00 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx WIN against the (Phoenix) Mercury?

8/29 6:00 PM: Will the (Atlanta) Dream WIN against the (Seattle) Storm?

8/30 6:30 PM: Will the (Indiana) Fever WIN against the (Chicago) Sky?

8/30 6:30 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx WIN against the (Dallas) Wings?

8/30 6:30 PM: Will the (Atlanta) Dream WIN against the (Las Vegas) Aces?

8/30 9:00 PM: Will the (New York) Liberty WIN against the (Seattle) Storm?

 8/31 2:00 PM: Will the (Connecticut) Sun WIN against the (Washington) Mystics?

 9/1 12:00 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storm WIN against the (Connecticut) Sun?

 9/1 2:00 PM: Will the (Chicago) Sky WIN against the (Minnesota) Lynx?

 9/1 3:00 PM: Will the (Indiana) Fever WIN against the (Dallas) Wings?

 9/1 3:00 PM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces WIN against the (Phoenix) Mercury?

 9/1 6:00 PM: Will the (Atlanta) Dream WIN against the (Los Angeles) Sparks?

9/3 6:00 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storm WIN against the (Connecticut) Sun?

9/3 7:00 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics WIN against the (Dallas) Wings?

9/3 9:00 PM: Will the (Chicago) Sky WIN against the (Las Vegas) Aces?

9/3 9:00 PM: Will the (Atlanta) Dream WIN against the (Phoenix) Mercury?

9/4 6:00 PM: Will the (Los Angeles) Sparks WIN against the (Indiana) Fever?

9/5 6:00 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storm WIN against the (New York) Liberty?

9/5 9:00 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics WIN against the (Phoenix) Mercury?

9/6 6:30 PM: Will the (Dallas) Wings WIN against the (Atlanta) Dream?

9/6 6:30 PM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces WIN against the (Connecticut) Sun?

9/6 6:30 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx WIN against the (Indiana) Fever?

9/6 8:30 PM: Will the (Los Angeles) Sparks WIN against the (Chicago) Sky?

9/7 8:00 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against the (Seattle) Storm?

9/8 2:00 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx WIN against the (Washington) Mystics?

9/8 3:00 PM: Will the (Atlanta) Dream WIN against the (Indiana) Fever?

9/8 3:00 PM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces WIN against the (New York) Liberty?

9/8 8:00 PM: Will the (Connecticut) Sun WIN against the (Los Angeles) Sparks?

9/8 5:00 PM: Will the (Dallas) Wings WIN against the (Chicago) Sky?

9/10 6:30 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx WIN against the (Atlanta) Dream?

9/10 7:00 PM: Will the (New York) Liberty WIN against the (Dallas) Wings?

9/10 9:00 PM: Will the (Connecticut) Sun WIN against the (Los Angeles) Sparks?

9/11 6:00 PM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces WIN against the (Indiana) Fever?

9/11 7:00 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics WIN against the (Chicago) Sky?

9/11 9:00 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storm WIN against the (Los Angeles) Sparks?

9/12 7:00 PM: Will the (New York) Liberty WIN against the (Dallas) Wings?

9/13 6:30 PM: Will the (Washington) Mystics WIN against the (Atlanta) Dream?

9/13 6:30 PM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces WIN against the (Indiana) Fever?

9/13 6:30 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storm WIN against the (Dallas) Wings?

9/13 6:30 PM: Will the (Chicago) Sky WIN against the (Minnesota) Lynx?

9/13 9:00 PM: Will the (Connecticut) Sun WIN against the (Phoenix) Mercury?

10/20 WNBA Finals Game 5 (if necessary) Team 1 v. Team 2?

 9/15 2:00 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx WIN against the (New York) Liberty?

 9/15 2:00 PM: Will the (Atlanta) Dream WIN against the (Washington) Mystics?

 9/15 5:00 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against the (Chicago) Sky?

 9/15 5:00 PM: Will the (Connecticut) Sun WIN against the (Las Vegas) Aces?

 9/15 5:00 PM: Will the (Los Angeles) Sparks WIN against the (Seattle) Storm?

9/17 6:00 PM: Will the (Minnesota) Lynx WIN against the (Connecticut) Sun?

9/17 6:00 PM: Will the (New York) Liberty WIN against the (Washington) Mystics?

9/17 6:30 PM: Will the (Chicago) Sky WIN against the (Atlanta) Dream?

9/17 9:00 PM: Will the (Las Vegas) Aces WIN against the (Seattle) Storm?

9/17 9:30 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against the (Los Angeles) Sparks?

9/19 6:00 PM: Will the (Chicago) Sky WIN against the (Connecticut) Sun?

9/19 6:00 PM: Will the (Atlanta) Dream WIN against the (New York) Liberty?

9/19 6:00 PM: Will the (Indiana) Fever WIN against the (Washington) Mystics?

9/19 7:00 PM: Will the (Los Angeles) Sparks WIN against the (Minnesota) Lynx?

9/19 9:00 PM: Will the (Dallas) Wings WIN against the (Las Vegas) Aces?

9/19 9:00 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storms WIN against the (Phoenix) Mercury?

 9/25 6:30 PM: Will the (Indiana) Fever WIN against the (Connecticut) Sun?

9/22 12:00 PM: Will the (Atlanta) Dream WIN against the (New York) Liberty?

9/22 2:00 PM: Will the (Indiana) Fever WIN against the (Connecticut) Sun?

9/22 4:00 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against the (Minnesota) Lynx?

9/22 9:00 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storn WIN against the (Las Vegas) Aces?

9/24 6:30 PM: Will the (Atlanta) Dream WIN against the (New York) Liberty?

9/24 8:30 PM: Will the (Seattle) Storn WIN against the (Las Vegas) Aces?

9/25 8:30 PM: Will the (Phoenix) Mercury WIN against the (Minnesota) Lynx?

Each game is resolved independently of the others

The question will close and be resolved as close to the final buzzer as my schedule permits.

The question will be resolved with results published at 

EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.

Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme 

 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.

However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) 

there will eventually be a model called GPT-5

 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5".

[invalid answer] Multiple people e.g. a team from OpenAI

No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific

https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1826340260735058400

This market is specifically on whom the above tweet is referring to, regardless of whether the interview occurs.

[This is Casey's medium-confidence prediction from the 12/22/23 episode of Hard Fork]

This market will resolve to yes if Google's Gemini Ultra or other state-of-the-art LLM is roughly equivalent to OpenAI's best publicly available LLM on December 31, 2024, and if Google's AI products have cut into ChatGPT's share of the consumer LLM chatbot market. Otherwise, it will resolve to no.

This is based on the inaugural longbets.org bet between Ray Kurzweil (YES) and Mitch Kapor (NO). It's a much more stringent Turing test than just "person on the street chats informally with a bot and can't tell it from a human". In fact, it's carefully constructed to be a proxy for AGI. Experts who know all the bot's weaknesses get to grill it for hours. Kurzweil and Kapor agree that LLMs as of 2023 don't and can't pass this Turing test.

Personally I think Kapor will win and Kurzweil will lose -- that a computer will not pass this version of the Turing test this decade.

((Bayesian) Update: But I admit the probability has jumped up recently! I created this Manifold market almost a year before ChatGPT launched.)

: Eliezer and I publicly stated some predictions about AI performance on the IMO by 2025.... My final prediction (after significantly revising my guesses after looking up IMO questions and medal thresholds) was:

Eliezer spent less time revising his prediction, but said (earlier in the discussion):

So I think we have Paul at <8%, Eliezer at >16% for AI made before the IMO is able to get a gold (under time controls 

 of grand challenge) in one of 2022-2025.

Resolves to YES if either Eliezer or Paul acknowledge that an AI has succeeded at this task.

https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-machine-learning-model-score-f0d93ee0119b

Update: As noted by Paul, the qualifying years for IMO completion are 2023, 2024, and 2025.

Update 2024-06-21: Description formatting

Update 2024-07-25: Changed title from "by 2025" to "by the end of 2025" for clarity

If a large language models beats a super grandmaster (Classic elo of above 2,700) while playing blind chess by 2028, this market resolves to YES.

I will ignore fun games, at my discretion. (Say a game where Hiraku loses to ChatGPT because he played the Bongcloud)

Some clarification (28th Mar 2023): This market grew fast with a unclear description. My idea is to check whether a general intelligence can play chess, without being created specifically for doing so (like humans aren't chess playing machines). Some previous comments I did.

1- To decide whether a given program is a LLM, I'll rely in the media and the nomenclature the creators give to it. If they choose to call it a LLM or some term that is related, I'll consider. Alternatively, a model that markets itself as a chess engine (or is called as such by the mainstream media) is unlikely to be qualified as a large language model.

2- The model can write as much as it want to reason about the best move. But it can't have external help beyond what is already in the weights of the model. For example, it can't access a chess engine or a chess game database. 

I won't bet on this market and I will refund anyone who feels betrayed by this new description and had open bets by 28th Mar 2023. This market will require judgement.

This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the election.

If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the election, or NO otherwise.

Resolution will be based on the Associated Press and Fox News decision desks. If both the AP and Fox declare a winner, this question will be resolved 48 hours later if those calls are not retracted.

If the AP/Fox do not declare a winner, such as if there is a tie in the electoral college, this question will resolve YES if any candidate of the Republican Party is designated as the next president by the United States Congress before the end of January 31st, 2025 (ET), or will resolve NO otherwise.

Will Kamala Harris flip a state in the 2024 presidential election?

Flipping a state means she wins a state not won by Joe Biden in 2020.

Maine or Nebraska's congressional districts do not count. For example, if Kamala Harris wins Maine's second district, that doesn't resolve this question.

This question closes a day before the election, and resolves as soon as results are known.

If for whatever reason the Democratic nominee changes this question will be about the new nominee.

In a recent Twitter exchange, the VC Keith Rabois called Nate Silver a "buffoon" and claimed that the "minimum" Trump win in FL is 8 points (and 10-14 is "more likely"). In reply, Nate challenged him to a $100,000 bet. 

This market resolves YES if Trump wins Florida by >8 points, and NO otherwise.

The Kamala Harris campaign soon after the first ABC debate, asked the Trump campaign for a second debate, will Donald Trump agree to a second debate?

Resolves yes if there is a second Kamala Vs Donald debate.

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