Manifold Markets
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Rai
created 5 months ago
Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?
28%
Bet
YES
Bet
NO
Technology
1998
49
Martin Randall
created a month ago
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
26%
Bet
YES
Bet
NO
Existential Risk
AI
AI risk
216
1
Aella
created a day ago
In my survey about virtuousness, will people rank "their mother", "a dog", or "yourself" as more virtuous?
A golden retriever dog
53%
Your mother
30%
You yourself
17%
40
Isaac
created 6 months ago
Binance collapses before the end of 2023
21%
Bet
YES
Bet
NO
Cryptocurrency
New Year's Resolutions 2024
Binance
348
21
Mira
created 2 months ago
(M20000 subsidy!) Will a prompt that enables GPT-4 to solve easy Sudoku puzzles be found? (2023)
47%
Bet
YES
Bet
NO
GPT-4 Sudoku Challenge (2023)
Contests
GPT-4 speculation
479
30
Fedor
created 21 days ago
Will the Ukrainian army launch a large scale counter-offense before July 2023?
92%
Bet
YES
Bet
NO
Ukraine Counteroffensive
Ukraine Counteroffensive
Ukraine
68
2
Franklin Baldo
created a day ago
Will David Grusch's non-human tech claims be confirmed by 2023-end?
3%
Bet
YES
Bet
NO
Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAPs)
UFO
19
4
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Astral Codex Ten
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