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Dustin
Trending
1624
Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?
80%
chance
Bet YES
Bet NO
29
Rai
Trending
1433
Will Google Search include a chatbot by end of June 2023?
38%
chance
Bet YES
Bet NO
25
Jack
Trending
157
Will Trump be indicted by March 31? [Polymarket question, see details]
87%
chance
Bet YES
Bet NO
3
Isaac King
Trending
88
Will anyone very famous claim to have made an important life decision because an AI suggested it by the end of 2023?
70%
chance
Bet YES
Bet NO
1
Gigacasting
Trending
101
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2023?
28%
chance
Bet YES
Bet NO
3
Lars Doucet
Trending
315
Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2023?
39%
chance
Bet YES
Bet NO
13
Scott Lawrence
Closing soon
in 10 hours
Will Jimmy Carter be alive on April 1?
99%
chance
Bet YES
Bet NO
Matthew Barnett
Trending
789
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States?
69%
chance
Bet YES
Bet NO
27
Austin
Trending
503
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?
42%
chance
Bet YES
Bet NO
14
johnleoks
Trending
94
Will Jimmy Carter still be alive by the end of April?
44%
chance
Bet YES
Bet NO
Nick Allen
Trending
72
Will the US economy grow in 2023?
70%
chance
Bet YES
Bet NO
2
Isaac King
Trending
55
Will a leading AI organization in the United States be the target of an anti-AI attack or protest by the end of 2023?
51%
chance
Bet YES
Bet NO
3
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Ṁ500
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I and many of my friends visit their site daily or at least weekly, and I often link them on Mantic Mondays.
Scott Alexander
Astral Codex Ten
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