 (had to remake for sweepstakes compatibility).

2025 Australian Open – Men's singles (Wikipedia)

Which male player will win the singles title in 2025?

If an unforeseen circumstance occurs which would prevent one clear winner, this market may resolve split between the remaining players still in contention.

2025 Australian Open – Women's singles (Wikipedia)

Which female player will win the singles title in 2025?

Resolves to the winning team. The game between Detroit Lions (home) and Washington Commanders (away) is scheduled for 2025-01-19 at 01:00:00 GMT. If the game is delayed, the market will be extended. If the game is cancelled, tied, or unexpected circumstances prevent a clear winner, this market may be resolved to 50%-50%.

Los Angeles Chargers beat Houston Texans (01/11) 4:30 PM (CBS)

Pittsburgh Steelers beat Baltimore Ravens (01/11) 8:00 PM (Prime)

Denver Broncos beat Buffalo Bills (01/12) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Green Bay Packers beat Philadelphia Eagles (01/12) 4:30 PM (FOX)

Washington Commanders beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers (01/12) 8:15 PM (NBC)

Minnesota Vikings beat LA Rams (01/13) 8:20 PM (ESPN)

Houston Texans beat Kansas City Chiefs (01/18) 4:30 PM (ESPN/ABC)

Washington Commanders beat Detroit Lions (01/18) 8 PM (FOX)

LA Rams beat Philadelphia Eagles (01/19) 3 PM (NBC)

Baltimore Ravens beat Buffalo Bills (01/19) 6:30 PM (CBS)

Wildcard Round. Divisional Round. Conference Championship. Super Bowl.

Get ready for an exhilarating season of football!

 (⭐4.96) for lightning-fast market resolutions and surprise market liquidity boosts all year long. Don't miss out—join the excitement today!

Resolves to the winning team. The game between New York Knicks (home) and Minnesota Timberwolves (away) is scheduled for 2025-01-18 at 00:30:00 GMT. If the game is delayed, the market will be extended. If the game is cancelled, tied, or unexpected circumstances prevent a clear winner, this market may be resolved to 50%-50%.

Resolves to the winning team. The game between Kansas City Chiefs (home) and Houston Texans (away) is scheduled for 2025-01-18 at 21:30:00 GMT. If the game is delayed, the market will be extended. If the game is cancelled, tied, or unexpected circumstances prevent a clear winner, this market may be resolved to 50%-50%.

Usable by the public and owned by ByteDance

Usable by the public and not owned by ByteDance

Restricted in the US and owned by ByteDance

This market takes into consideration the status of TikTok on April 1st, 00:00 PST. So any upcoming bans/acquisitions will not matter if they aren't legally finalised and already in place.

" if the vast majority of the public can still legally download TikTok from major app stores in the US and visit 

Usable by the public and not owned by ByteDance" 

if the above criteria are true, however majority ownership is held by a company that is not ByteDance Ltd. This could include a new company formed with ties to ByteDance.

" if the vast majority of the public can not legally download TikTok from major app stores in the US, can not watch content on their TikTok app, and can not access 

" if meaningful restrictions have been put into place but some US residents can still legally access some TikTok content. Note that any existing restrictions, such as those on government employees, will not be taken into account. This could include, but is not limited to:

" if TikTok no longer exists as its own app and has been acquired or merged with another company's platform. Note that this is similar to "Usable by the public and owned by ByteDance

however, the distinct difference is that for this option TikTok should no longer exist as its own app/website in the US (an archive version of some sort would not count). 

: If it is first banned, and then in response they integrated by April 1st then it will resolve to this answer and not completely banned.

OpenAI flagship language model (ie. gpt-5)

 = available to some portion of the public (including a subset of subscribers or a limited number of API developers from members of the public). Released only for safety testing does

 = Either announced by the company as a new model, is clear from numbering/naming it is a distinct model, or able to be selected from some sort of menu as a distinct model. Something like "o1 extra mini" would count as while it is part of o1 it can be considered a distinct model in this market.

Please note that any model which came out this month prior to market creation will not count (a new model from the company should come out for the answer to resolve to yes). For example Nvidia's recently released AI called Cosmos will not count towards this market.

Must be released before January 31st 11:59pm PST. If it is announced but not yet released to any members of the public it will not count.

refers to any model that is not their new flagship model (eg. gpt 5), o3, or o3-mini, a video generator, or an image generator. It could be a derivative of another language model or some other type of model such as a voice generator.

 refers to a model comparable to claude 3.5 or gpt-4o that should outperform claude 3.5 sonnet on a majority of performance benchmarks. This should not be a reasoning model.

refers to a model that is not considered their everyday task model and is akin to what OpenAI's O1 is to gpt-4o. 

refers to any model that is not a reasoning model nor their new flagship model. For example, it could be a derivative of an existing language model or a different type of AI model entirely.

Note the resolution criteria—what matters is the change in the count of federal employees, not whether we can confirm Trump and/or Elon directly fired them. For reference, the specific chart Kalshi links to appears to be 

: Eliezer and I publicly stated some predictions about AI performance on the IMO by 2025.... My final prediction (after significantly revising my guesses after looking up IMO questions and medal thresholds) was:

Eliezer spent less time revising his prediction, but said (earlier in the discussion):

So I think we have Paul at <8%, Eliezer at >16% for AI made before the IMO is able to get a gold (under time controls 

 of grand challenge) in one of 2022-2025.

Resolves to YES if either Eliezer or Paul acknowledge that an AI has succeeded at this task.

https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-machine-learning-model-score-f0d93ee0119b

Update: As noted by Paul, the qualifying years for IMO completion are 2023, 2024, and 2025.

Update 2024-06-21: Description formatting

Update 2024-07-25: Changed title from "by 2025" to "by the end of 2025" for clarity

Resolves YES if Elon Musk & ByteDance formally begin the process for Elon Musk to be at least a substantial owner of TikTok's US operations, before market close (August 31st 2025).

It does not matter if that process is eventually blocked (by the courts or etc) before it can complete, the formal process just needs to begin. But simply an announcement of "I'd like to do this" is not sufficient—there needs to be clear legal action that this is happening, according to a credible consensus of reporting.

It also resolves YES if TikTok is acquired by any company (e.g. X Corp, X.AI, etc) where Musk is CEO, the largest shareholder, or is otherwise viewed as the dominant force behind the company. 

Otherwise (including in the absence of any other information), resolves NO at market close.

[01/14 creator clarification]: To clarify "substantial owner", the criteria for YES on that point will be fairly broad—the spirit of the market is about whether the public would generally would consider Elon to have "bought" TikTok in any formalized sense. The goal is to avoid rules lawyering about the exact corporate structure that he uses (to put it informally, "well 

 he's not quite the 'owner' of TikTok!" is likely not going to be enough to resolve this NO). Note: I can only clarify resolution for the mana market, & I do not run the sweeps version.

EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

OpenAI's original definition for AGI is as follows:

Here is a diagram illustrating the governance structure of OpenAI:

The following is a quote from the original post by OpenAI, 

An action that would "hint at" OpenAI achieving AGI would be the exclusion of a specific state of the art AI system from IP licenses and other commercial terms with Microsoft while their partnership with Microsoft remains more or less the same structurally (although the composition might change). 

Same market for a longer time-frame is below:

Resolves YES if the deadline for Bytedance to divest from the US entity TikTok is removed or extended past January 19th 2025, 23:59 ET.

If Trump arranges for TikTok’s deadline to be extended, and the extension technically begins after he takes power on the 19th, this market will still resolve Yes as long as TikTok never becomes unavailable to download for the majority of US residents. This applies even if the deadline technically runs out before the extension takes effect.

Otherwise, this market will resolve No as soon as TikTok the deadline is passed and there are no plans for an extension. If Trump has announced plans for an extension, but TikTok has become unavailable to download for any amount of time for the majority of US residents as the deadline has passed, then this market will resolve No.

Ban transgender women from participating in women sports

End birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants through executive action

Terminate federal funding for gender affirming care

Try to get back the $175M bail he posted in April 2024

Pardon himself (even if this is later overturned by a court)

Pardon at least 5 named people (not as part of a group)

Ban transgender people from joining the military

Have visible whiter areas on his face because he just can’t stop fake tanning

Take credit for averting the government shutdown.

Promote his new parfum “Fight! fight! fight!”

Make male and female the only federally recognized genders

Enact any executive order primarily affecting the transgender population

Mention o1 or o3 in a speech/social media post/EO/etc

Pardon someone who has not been convinced of any crime

Make a tweet/truth that includes at least two words in ALL CAPS (no acronyms)

Take the oath of office before the term begins by law (Before Noon)

Mention any of the 80,000 Hours most pressing world problems

Order Navy Seals to assassinate Democrat politicians while being covered by presidential immunity

Mention his legal immunity (for official presidential acts)

Nothing particularly noteworthy, according to a Manifold poll

Ride together in the same limosine with Joe Biden

Walk the parade route for at least 50 steps

Give an inauguration speech that is received extremely negatively by mainstream media, as judged by Quillist

State that he was responsible for the Hamas ceasefire and hostage deal

Truthfully claim that his second inauguration was more well attended than his first

Order flags to be flown at full-staff (returned to normal)

Make a significant gaffe that is covered by the media, as judged by Qullist

Sit next to Mike Johnson at the inaugural lunch

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp) 

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term) 

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot 

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position 

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out 

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month 

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

The department of education gets desolved

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program 

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

A measurable decrease in chronic disease 

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate 

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028 

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader 

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

Will Trump not be acting president before his term is over, for any reason?

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives 

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

I reserve the right to cancel any option that doesn't seem relevant / unconnected to trump / etc. If a question is ambiguous, please ping the question creator for clarification. If they don't clarify within a few days, ping me and I'll decide how it's disambiguated.

Consensus of credible reporting will be used for this market's resolution. I am not following Trump's every move so I'd very much appreciate @s when options need to be resolved.

This market will settle as YES if at least three individuals that Trump nominates for cabinet positions that must be confirmed by the Senate are either withdrawn or voted down in the Senate. Cabinet officials refers to the 15 heads of government agencies, along with cabinet-level officials, which for the purposes of this market includes the Administrator of the EPA, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. 

A nomination occurs as soon as President Trump announces an intention to nominate someone. No other step is necessary to be taken. No official step must be taken to withdraw a nominee either. Credible reporting that the administration will not longer be pursuing the nomination is enough. 

This market will settle as NO as soon as all the relevant positions are confirmed, or if the conditions of YES have not been met by March 31, 2025.  

The nominees that fail need not be all nominated for different positions. If, for example, Trump has three Attorney General nominees that fail, this market will resolve as YES. 

If Donald Trump does not become president or stops being president, this market resolves according to what happens to the nominees of whoever happens to be president during the relevant time period. The nominees of two or more people serving as president will be counted together. If, for example, Trump appoints an AG who is withdrawn and then Vance becomes president and two of his nominees are withdrawn, this market will settle as YES. 

“Artificial intelligence” or “AI”

“Losers” or “suckers” or “morons”

"Hannibal Lecter" or "windmill(s)" or "mental institution(s)" or "shark(s)"

"Gender," "Transgender" or "Transgenderism"

"Weak"/"Weaken"/"Weakened"/"Weakness(es)"

"Border(s)"/"Bordered"/"Bordering"/"Frontier"

"Instrument(s)"/"Instrumental"/"Instrumentally"

"Virus(es)"/"Viral"/"Disease(s)"/"Diseased"

"Prison(s)"/"Jail(s)"/"Jailed"/"Imprisoned"

"You work hard for what you want in life"

"Surrender(s)"/"Surrendered"/"Surrendering"

These options resolve YES if Donald Trump says the 

The market resolves “Yes” if President Joe Biden officially pardons Anthony Fauci for any alleged crimes or offenses during his presidency, as confirmed by an official announcement, executive order, or credible news sources.

• If no such pardon is issued by the resolution date, the market resolves “No.”

🇺🇸 US Politics

🖥️ Technology

🏟️ Sports

Donald Trump has promised a 10% tariff across the board for all goods entering the United States if elected. This market will settle as YES if Donald Trump gets elected and in any one quarter of 2025, the US weighted average tariff is at least 6%. For the last quarter we have data at this time, second quarter of 2024, the number was 2.4%. It was at 3.5% at its highest level of the Trump presidency.

Data is sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data website (link below). This market will settle as soon as Callum Williams, senior economics writer at The Economist, has calculated the number has crossed the 6% threshold for any quarter in 2025, or it hasn’t for any of the quarters. If, when he does his calculations for the fourth quarter of 2025, the 6% threshold has not been met, this market will then settle NO. This market will settle as YES if either an initial estimate or any revision for any of the first three quarters of 2025 crosses the 6% threshold while the market is open. The fourth quarter number will be based on initial data and the market will close after that data is available at the latest. 

If Donald Trump loses the election, this market will settle as N/A. If Donald Trump wins the election but a different president takes office at any point, this market will settle according to the same rules based on the US weighted tariff average for each quarter. 

If Callum Williams is unavailable to conduct the analysis, a suitable replacement will be found.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e

Resolves "Yes" if the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Doomsday Clock at 

 is set closer to midnight by the end of January 2025 than the end of January 2024.

-If the clock is at the exact same time as 2024 (90 seconds) this resolves NO.

-If the bulletin doesn't release a statement on the clock's new time by the end of February (PST) then this market will resolve to 50%.

This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question. (i.e. "I've looked at all notable evidence presented by both sides and have upwards of 98% confidence that a certain conclusion is correct, and it doesn't seem likely that any further relevant evidence will be forthcoming any time soon.")

This will likely not occur until many years after Covid is no longer a subject of active political contention, motivations for various actors to distort or hide inconvenient evidence have died down, and a scientific consensus has emerged on the subject. For exactly when it will resolve, see 

I will be conferring with the community extensively before resolving this market, to ensure I haven't missed anything and aren't being overconfident in one direction or another. As some additional assurance, see 

(For comparison, the level of evidence in favor of anthropogenic climate change would be sufficient, despite the existence of a few doubts here and there.)

If we never reach a point where I can safely be that confident either way, it'll remain open indefinitely. (And Manifold lends you your mana back after a few months, so this doesn't negatively impact you.)

"Come from a laboratory" includes both an accidental lab leak and an 

. It also counts if COVID was found in the wild, taken to a lab for study, and then escaped from that lab without any modification. It just needs to have actually been "in the lab" in a meaningful way. A lab worker who was out collecting samples and got contaminated in the wild doesn't count, but it does count if they got contaminated later from a sample that was supposed to be safely contained.

In the event of multiple progenitors, this market resolves YES only if the lab leak was plausibly responsible for the worldwide pandemic. It won't count if the pandemic primarily came from natural sources and then there was also a lab leak that only infected a few people.

Luigi Mangione was reportedly taken in by authorities on 12/9/24. He was at a McDonald's in Altoona, Pennsylvania. 

Trade on politics & more