OpenAI - GPT2

What is “gpt2-chatbot”?

21%

gpt-4.5 or 5 or whatever OpenAI's next model is called https://x.com/phill__1/status/1784964135920235000

12%

new version of gpt-2 from 2019 https://x.com/albfresco/status/1784964830887104999

new open-source model https://x.com/AndrewCurran_/status/1784975542028050739

64%

other (e.g. just an updated version of GPT-4)

#Technology

Is gpt2-chatbot based on the GPT-2 architecture?9% chance

#ChatGPT

Will OpenAI release GPT 4.5 or GPT 5 before June 2024?11% chance

#LLMs

AI Capabilities 2024 [Mega Market]

#ChatGPT

49%

Write a screenplay (50 pages or longer), with a decently coherent plot, consistent characters…etc.

17%

Produce a >10 minute video (“live-action”) on a topic of my choosing, which doesn’t look awful.

19%

Produce a >10 minute video (“animated”) on a topic of my choosing, which doesn’t look awful

33%

Generate a 30 second realistic looking pornographic video.

See 17 more answers

#Generative AI

#Artificial Intelligence

#Technical AI Timelines

OpenAI release GPT-4.5 or GPT-5 by what month?

13%

Before June

38%

Before July

57%

Before August

70%

Before September

Will OpenAI Sora release to the public before the next GPT version, 4.5 / 5?22% chance

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]2,032

#AGI

OpenAI is expected to release a 'materially better' GPT-5 for its chatbot mid-year, sources say

Business Insider

The model that underlies the popular ChatGPT generative AI tool is said to be soon getting an upgrade.

Will OpenAI release GPT-5 this summer (2024) as BusinessInsider claims?38% chance

#GPT-5

What will be true of OpenAI's next major LLM release (GPT-4.5 or GPT-5)?

#Technology

92%

released in 2024

91%

achieve the highest ELO rating on LMSYS (ChatBot Arena)

90%

support more agentic, time-consuming tasks with minimal input

83%

context window >= 500k tokens

When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 50% for one month?

47%

2024 or 2025

19%

2026 or 2027

19%

2028 or 2029

15%

Not before 2030

Microsoft and OpenAI plan to build a $100 billion supercomputer to power artificial intelligence: report

Microsoft and OpenAI are planning an unprecedented supercomputer that would use millions of specialized server chips, The Information reported.

In 2024, will OpenAI/Microsoft confirm plans to build a supercomputer like the rumored $100 billion "Stargate"?78% chance

Sam Altman: OpenAI, GPT-5, Sora, Board Saga, Elon Musk, Ilya, Power & AGI | Lex Fridman Podcast #419

#AI Regulation

Will a high-volume prediction market expect OpenAI to create AGI before 2030?75% chance

Sam Altman is the CEO of OpenAI, the company behind GPT-4, ChatGPT, Sora, and many other state-of-the-art AI technologies. Please support this podcast by che...

What will be true about GPT-5?

27%

It won't release during 2024

It will release in April 2024 or before

47%

It will release between May and October 2024

17%

It will release in November 2024

See 19 more answers

When will OpenAI's Sora be publicly available?

0.1%

February 2024

1.8%

March 2024

April 2024

May 2024

When will OpenAI broadly release GPT 4.5 or GPT 5?

0.5%

March 1-15

0.8%

March 16-31

1.2%

April 1-15

April 16-30

Will it appear that the openai.com GPT-4.5 turbo blogpost that appeared in DuckDuckGo results was real?6% chance

#Technology

Will OpenAI release GPT 4.5 or GPT 5 before June 2024?11% chance

#LLMs

When will OpenAI release a more capable LLM?

#ChatGPT

0.2%

2023

15%

First half of 2024

58%

Second half of 2024

27%

2025+