OpenAI

By when will OpenAI broadly release the model expected to be called GPT-5?

Before August 2024

Before September 2024

18%

Before October 2024

30%

Before November 2024

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Mini

When will the new 4o voice mode finish alpha testing and be available for a significant amount of ChatGPT plus users?

Jul-01 to Jul-07

Jul-08 to Jul-14

Jul-15 to Jul-21

Jul-22 to Jul-28

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Plus

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?52% chance

Plus

Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025?65% chance

Business Insider

OpenAI starts training its 'next frontier model' and takes action on safety concerns

CEO Sam Altman is one of four directors on a new committee that plans to make "critical safety and security decisions" at OpenAI.

Will anyone manage to get OpenAI Sora to generate explicitly pornographic videos in the three months after release?55% chance

In what month will OpenAI broadly release the model expected to be called GPT-5?

60%

January 2025 or later

13%

December 2024

November 2024

October 2024

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Plus

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]2,029

CNN

OpenAI unveils newest AI model, GPT-4o | CNN Business

OpenAI on Monday announced its latest artificial intelligence large language model that it says will be easier and more intuitive to use.

AI Capabilities 2024 [Mega Market]

28%

Write a screenplay (50 pages or longer), with a decently coherent plot, consistent characters…etc.

13%

Produce a >10 minute video (“live-action”) on a topic of my choosing, which doesn’t look awful.

15%

Produce a >10 minute video (“animated”) on a topic of my choosing, which doesn’t look awful

18%

Generate a 30 second realistic looking pornographic video.

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Business Insider

OpenAI is expected to release a 'materially better' GPT-5 for its chatbot mid-year, sources say

The model that underlies the popular ChatGPT generative AI tool is said to be soon getting an upgrade.

Will OpenAI release GPT-5 this summer (2024) as BusinessInsider claims?8% chance

When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 50% for one month?

34%

2024 or 2025

18%

2026 or 2027

18%

2028 or 2029

30%

Not before 2030

Business Insider

Microsoft and OpenAI plan to build a $100 billion supercomputer to power artificial intelligence: report

Microsoft and OpenAI are planning an unprecedented supercomputer that would use millions of specialized server chips, The Information reported.

In 2024, will OpenAI/Microsoft confirm plans to build a supercomputer like the rumored $100 billion "Stargate"?34% chance

Will a high-volume prediction market expect OpenAI to create AGI before 2030?76% chance

YouTube

Sam Altman: OpenAI, GPT-5, Sora, Board Saga, Elon Musk, Ilya, Power & AGI | Lex Fridman Podcast #419

Sam Altman is the CEO of OpenAI, the company behind GPT-4, ChatGPT, Sora, and many other state-of-the-art AI technologies. Please support this podcast by che...

What will be true about GPT-5?

57%

It won't release during 2024

13%

It will release between May and October 2024

12%

It will release in November 2024

19%

It will release in December 2024

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When will OpenAI's Sora be publicly available?

0.1%

February 2024

March 2024

1.7%

April 2024

May 2024

See 10 more answers

Will it appear that the openai.com GPT-4.5 turbo blogpost that appeared in DuckDuckGo results was real?2% chance

TechCrunch

Diffusion transformers are the key behind OpenAI's Sora -- and they're set to upend GenAI | TechCrunch

At the heart of Sora and Stable Diffusion 3.0 is a type of AI model architecture called the diffusion transformer.

What will be true of OpenAI's Sora* model, at the end of 2025? [*see description]

60%

It will be the SOTA for text to video

54%

It can generate videos over 10 minutes long

62%

A second major version of the model has been released

13%

A third major version of the model has been released

See 43 more answers

Plus

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?31% chance

Will 2024 see a major, viral, malicious AI-generated disinformation case, either in the US or globally?23% chance

Will the full report of the investigation of Sam Altman be released to the public in 2024?11% chance

Who will be on OpenAI's board of directors one year after Sam Altman's ouster?

Ilya Sutskever

89%

Adam D’Angelo

Tasha McCauley

Helen Toner

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Elon Musk sues OpenAI and Sam Altman, claiming "stark betrayal" of the AI company's mission

Lawsuit accuses OpenAI of abandoning its mission to benefit humanity in favor of pursuing its commercial interests.

TechCrunch

Andrej Karpathy is leaving OpenAI again — but he says there was no drama | TechCrunch

Andrej Karpathy, a widely respected research scientist, has quit OpenAI for the second time to focus on personal projects.

Sama says "build for GPT-5 and AGI Now; GPT-5 in 2024, AGI in 2025" | Hacker News

Ars Technica

Mysterious “gpt2-chatbot” AI model appears suddenly, confuses experts

Mystery LLM highlights transparency issues in AI testing.

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