Israel Ceasefire

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Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire deal before Trump’s inauguration?97% chance
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When will the hostilities in Gaza end?
81%
Jan 2025 or earlier
94%
Feb 2025 or earlier
95%
Mar 2025 or earlier
97%
April 2025 or earlier
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When will Gaza have a ceasefire? (before end of which month?) [Israel Hamas Conflict]
98%
Before the end of Jun 2025
98%
Before the end of Dec 2025
98%
Before the end of Jun 2026
99%
Before the end of Dec 2026
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Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?9% chance
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Will Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war?30% chance
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[Metaculus] Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?10% chance
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Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza?18% chance
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