Israel-Arab Conflict

Netanyahu vows to invade Rafah 'with or without a deal' as cease-fire talks with Hamas continue

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pledged to launch an incursion into the southern Gaza city of Rafah, where hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are sheltering.

What will happen first: A Ceasefire Deal, Rafah Ground Invasion, or June 1st?

25%

Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Deal

46%

Israel invades Rafah

28%

June 1st arrives with neither having happened

0.2%

Other

#Israel-Hamas Conflict

Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?59% chance

Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of May 24?28% chance

#Israel-Hamas Conflict

Will Gaza be de facto controled by Israel at the end of 2024?34% chance

#Israel-Hamas Conflict 2023

#Arab-Israeli Conflict

#Israeli Politics

[Metaculus] Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?59% chance

Israel fears ICC will issue arrest warrants for Netanyahu and other top officials

Israel fears that the International Criminal Court (ICC) may issue arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and senior military officials as early as this week, an Israeli official told NBC News.

Will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu by the end of 2024?23% chance

Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza?16% chance

#Israel-Hamas Conflict 2023

What we know about Israel's missile attack on Iran

There are competing claims about the scale of Friday's attack on the Isfahan region.

Will Iran attack Israel with another drone, missile or airstrike before the end of 2024?18% chance

#Israel-Iran Conflict

Will Israel hit Iran's nuclear sites in 2024?19% chance

If Iran launches more missiles towards Israel in response to the recent attack will 2 or more people die61% chance

#Arab-Israeli Conflict

Will there by any further direct attacks between Iran and Israel in April or May 2024?5% chance

Will a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?12% chance

#Arab-Israeli Conflict

#Israeli Politics

Will Israel carry out a deadly attack responsible for at least 5 deaths within Iran before May 1, 2024? [Metaculus] NO

#Israel-Iran Conflict

Will Iran carry out an attack which leads to the death of at least 5 people within Israel before May 1st? [Metaculus] NO

What will happen during or as a result of the Iranian drone attack on Israel? [ADD ANSWERS]

49%

A cyberattack targeting Iran will occur

41%

A cyberattack targeting the state of Israel will occur

33%

Irondome catches 5 drones

13%

At least one person dies

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#Israel-Hamas Conflict

When will there be an Israel-Hamas temporary ceasefire? [Ṁ3K SUBSIDY]

2%

May 1st or earlier

24%

June 1st or earlier

34%

July 1st or earlier

41%

August 1st or earlier

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#Arab-Israeli Conflict

#Israel-Hamas Conflict

Will Israel attack Iran within one week of being attacked by them?YES

Live updates: Iran launches barrage of strikes toward Israel

Iran has launched a wave of strikes toward Israel in retaliation for last week's deadly Israeli strike on an Iranian embassy complex in Syria. Follow here for the latest live news updates.

Will a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 10,000 deaths before 2025?10% chance

#Israeli Politics

#Arab-Israeli Conflict

Will another nation declare war in the Israel-Hamas conflict by July 15th 2024?16% chance

#Arab-Israeli Conflict

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