Israel/Gaza

Plus

Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of July?6% chance

Plus

Mohammed Deif (Hamas military commander) killed or captured by Israeli forces by end of 2024?81% chance

When will there be an Israel-Hamas temporary ceasefire? [3K SUBSIDY]

5%

August 1st or earlier

28%

September 1st or earlier

36%

October 1st or earlier

38%

November 1st or earlier

See 6 more answers

Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the IsraelHamas war ends?44% chance

Netanyahu rival Benny Gantz quits war Cabinet

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's key rival, Benny Gantz, announced Sunday that he is quitting the war Cabinet after a postwar plan for the Palestinian enclave failed to materialize.

When will the hostilities in Gaza end?

1%

Jul 2024 or earlier

9%

Aug 2024 or earlier

16%

Sep 2024 or earlier

22%

Oct 2024 or earlier

See 14 more answers

Will Israel win the 2023 IsraelHamas war?37% chance

May 11, 2024 - Israel-Hamas war | CNN

Israel’s military has ordered the evacuation of more neighborhoods in Rafah ahead of a potential major ground operation in the southern Gaza city, where over 1 million Palestinians are estimated to be displaced.

[ACX 2024] Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?87% chance

[Metaculus] Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?27% chance

Yahya Sinwar killed or captured by Israeli forces by end of 2024?56% chance

Israel-Hamas war | Breaking News & Live Updates

Get the latest developments as the war between Israel and Hamas unfolds.

Will Israel control Rafah by the end of July?11% chance

Will Gaza be de facto controled by Israel at the end of 2024?20% chance

Israel fears ICC will issue arrest warrants for Netanyahu and other top officials

Israel fears that the International Criminal Court (ICC) may issue arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and senior military officials as early as this week, an Israeli official told NBC News.

Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza?30% chance

How long will it take the Israeli army to conquer all of Gaza?

52%

N/A

0.7%

1 month

0.4%

2 months

0.5%

4 months

See 5 more answers

What we know about Israel's missile attack on Iran

There are competing claims about the scale of Friday's attack on the Isfahan region.

Will Iran attack Israel with another drone, missile or airstrike before the end of 2024?24% chance

Will Israel hit Iran's nuclear sites in 2024?14% chance

If Iran launches more missiles towards Israel in response to the recent attack will 2 or more people die61% chance

Iran launches barrage of strikes toward Israel: Live updates | CNN

Iran has launched a wave of strikes toward Israel in retaliation for last week’s deadly Israeli strike on an Iranian embassy complex in Syria. Follow here for the latest live news updates.

Will a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 10,000 deaths before 2025?12% chance

Will a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?10% chance

Will another nation declare war in the Israel-Hamas conflict by July 15th 2024?NO

See more questions: