Manifold 2024 Election Forecast

Live prediction market odds on the US election

Which party will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Republican Party

49%

Democratic Party

50%

Democratic Party

50%

Republican Party

49%

65%

Will Republicans take the majority in the US Senate in 2024?

75%

Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2024 US presidential election?

R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta

28%

D President, R Senate, D House

26%

D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta

18%

See 5 more answers

Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 US Presidential Election?

28%

Will Biden finish his term?

91%

Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US presidential election?

50%

Which party will win the US Presidency?

270 to win

Swing States

Democratic

Republican

Michigan

DEM

60%

REP

40%

Wisconsin

DEM

56%

REP

44%

Nevada

DEM

50%

REP

50%

Pennsylvania

DEM

50%

REP

50%

Arizona

DEM

44%

REP

56%

Georgia

DEM

43%

REP

57%

North Carolina

DEM

41%

REP

59%

2024 US Presidential Election

Trump

50%

Harris

49%

Biden

0.3%

Kennedy

0.2%

Walz

0.2%

Vance

0.2%

M. Obama

0.1%

Haley

0.1%

15 more

What will happen if...

Harris wins

Trump wins

Will undocumented immigration at the southern border go down?

Harris wins

63%

Trump wins

78%

Will undocumented immigration at the southern border go down?

63%

78%

Will the president appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?

Harris wins

71%

Trump wins

78%

Will the president appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?

71%

78%

Will marijuana be federally rescheduled from Schedule 1 drug?

Harris wins

76%

Trump wins

44%

Will marijuana be federally rescheduled from Schedule 1 drug?

76%

44%

Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

Harris wins

48%

Trump wins

46%

Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

48%

46%

Will there be an executive order or legislation focused on AI before the 2026 midterms?

Harris wins

78%

Trump wins

52%

Will there be an executive order or legislation focused on AI before the 2026 midterms?

78%

52%

Will gas prices stay under $4 a gallon before the midterms?

Harris wins

47%

Trump wins

51%

Will gas prices stay under $4 a gallon before the midterms?

47%

51%

Will the inflation rate in 2025 be below 2.5%? (Current 3.2%)

Harris wins

64%

Trump wins

62%

Will the inflation rate in 2025 be below 2.5%? (Current 3.2%)

64%

62%

Will the US enter a recession before 2027? (as measured by Sahm rule)

Harris wins

49%

Trump wins

58%

Will the US enter a recession before 2027? (as measured by Sahm rule)

49%

58%

Gallup satisfaction poll greater than Obama

Harris wins

35%

Trump wins

27%

Gallup satisfaction poll greater than Obama

35%

27%

Will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?

Harris wins

65%

Trump wins

48%

Will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?

65%

48%

Will Donald Trump serve time in 2025?

Harris wins

25%

Trump wins

Will Donald Trump serve time in 2025?

25%