Manifold 2024 Election Forecast
Live prediction market odds on the US election
2024 US Presidential Election
Trump
63%
Donald Trump
Harris
15%
Kamala Harris
Biden
8%
Joe Biden
Whitmer
3%
Gretchen Whitmer
Newsom
1.3%
Gavin Newsom
Kennedy
1.2%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Clinton
0.9%
Hillary Clinton
M. Obama
0.9%
Michelle Obama
13 more
Presidential Nomination
Democratic
Kamala Harris
Harris
48%
-3% today
Joe Biden
Biden
29%
Gretchen Whitmer
Whitmer
9%
+5% today
See 9 more
Republican
Donald Trump
Trump
99%
Ron DeSantis
DeSantis
0%
Nikki Haley
Haley
0.9%
See 1 more
Which party will win the US Presidency?
270 to win
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Michigan
DEM
51%
REP
49%
Pennsylvania
DEM
45%
REP
55%
Wisconsin
DEM
40%
REP
59%
Arizona
DEM
34%
REP
66%
Nevada
DEM
31%
REP
69%
Georgia
DEM
19%
REP
80%
Which party will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Republican Party
61%
Democratic Party
39%
Who would win if they were the Democratic nominee?
Shapiro
60%
Josh Shapiro
Beshear
60%
Andy Beshear
Whitmer
54%
+3% today
Gretchen Whitmer
Buttigieg
50%
Pete Buttigieg
Newsom
44%
Gavin Newsom
Harris
36%
-3% today
Kamala Harris
2 more
Republican vice presidential nomination
Vance
99%
+59% today
J.D. Vance
Pence
0%
Mike Pence
Lake
0%
Kari Lake
DeSantis
0%
Ron DeSantis
Haley
0%
Nikki Haley
Scott
0.2%
-4% today
Tim Scott
Ramaswamy
0.1%
Vivek Ramaswamy
Stefanik
0.1%
Elise Stefanik
61 more
2024 Democratic presidential nomination
Harris
48%
-3% today
Kamala Harris
Biden
29%
Joe Biden
Whitmer
9%
+5% today
Gretchen Whitmer
Clinton
3%
+3% today
Hillary Clinton
Shapiro
2%
Josh Shapiro
Newsom
2%
Gavin Newsom
Buttigieg
1.7%
Pete Buttigieg
M. Obama
0.8%
Michelle Obama
4 more
2024 Republican presidential nomination
Trump
99%
Donald Trump
DeSantis
0%
Ron DeSantis
Haley
0.9%
Nikki Haley
1 more
What will happen if...
Will undocumented immigration at the southern border go down?
Will the president appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?
Will marijuana be federally rescheduled from Schedule 1 drug?
Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
Will there be an executive order or legislation focused on AI before the 2026 midterms?
Will gas prices stay under $4 a gallon before the midterms?
Will the inflation rate in 2025 be below 2.5%? (Current 3.2%)
Will the US enter a recession before 2027?
Gallup satisfaction poll greater than Obama
Will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?
Will Donald Trump serve time in 2025?