Manifold 2024 Election Forecast
Live prediction market odds on the US election
Which party will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Democratic Party
50%
Republican Party
49%
Which party will win the US Presidency?
270 to win
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DEM
60%
REP
40%
DEM
56%
REP
44%
DEM
50%
REP
50%
DEM
50%
REP
50%
DEM
44%
REP
56%
DEM
43%
REP
57%
DEM
41%
REP
59%
2024 US Presidential Election
Trump
50%
Donald Trump
Harris
49%
Kamala Harris
Biden
0.3%
Joe Biden
Kennedy
0.2%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Walz
0.2%
Tim Walz
Vance
0.2%
JD Vance
M. Obama
0.1%
Michelle Obama
Haley
0.1%
Nikki Haley
15 more
What will happen if...
Will undocumented immigration at the southern border go down?
63%
78%
Will the president appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?
71%
78%
Will marijuana be federally rescheduled from Schedule 1 drug?
76%
44%
Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
48%
46%
Will there be an executive order or legislation focused on AI before the 2026 midterms?
78%
52%
Will gas prices stay under $4 a gallon before the midterms?
47%
51%
Will the inflation rate in 2025 be below 2.5%? (Current 3.2%)
64%
62%
Will the US enter a recession before 2027? (as measured by Sahm rule)
49%
58%
Gallup satisfaction poll greater than Obama
35%
27%
Will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?
65%
48%
Will Donald Trump serve time in 2025?
25%
2%