Manifold 2024 Election Forecast
Live prediction market odds on the US election
Trump
62%
+4%
Harris
38%
R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta
34%
D President, R Senate, D House
31%
R President, R Senate, D House
17%
It is the last debate between any 2 members of the major party tickets, during the month it takes place in
84%
Walz says "Weird"
Resolved
NO
Anyone says "Couch"
Resolved
NO
Which party will win the US Presidency?
270 to win
AKALARAZCACOCTDEFLGAHIIAIDILINKSKYLAMAMDMEMIMNMOMSMTNCNDNENHNJNMNVNYOHOKORPARISCSDTNTXUTVAVTWAWIWVWYDC
DEM
49%
REP
51%
DEM
49%
REP
51%
DEM
47%
REP
53%
DEM
42%
REP
58%
DEM
37%
REP
63%
DEM
34%
REP
66%
DEM
31%
REP
69%
2024 US Presidential Election
Trump
53%
Donald Trump
Harris
45%
Kamala Harris
Vance
0.4%
JD Vance
Biden
0.2%
Joe Biden
Walz
0.1%
Tim Walz
Kennedy
0.1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Haley
0.1%
Nikki Haley
M. Obama
0%
Michelle Obama
15 more
What will happen if...
Will undocumented immigration at the southern border go down?
67%
80%
Will the president appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?
76%
79%
Will marijuana be federally rescheduled from Schedule 1 drug?
71%
42%
Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
43%
60%
Will there be an executive order or legislation focused on AI before the 2026 midterms?
87%
59%
Will gas prices stay under $4 a gallon before the midterms?
60%
56%
Will the inflation rate in 2025 be below 2.5%? (Current 3.2%)
82%
68%
Will the US enter a recession before 2027? (as measured by Sahm rule)
47%
59%
Gallup satisfaction poll greater than Obama
34%
28%
Will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?
73%
64%
Will Donald Trump serve time in 2025?
44%
4%
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