Manifold 2024 Election Forecast

Live prediction market odds on the US election

Who will win the Presidential Election?

Trump

50%

Harris

50%

Trump

50%

Harris

50%

Trending

Sweepcash Market

Will Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Election?

23%

Sweepcash Market

Will the Republicans control the US Senate after the 2024 election?

74%

Sweepcash Market

Will the Republicans control the US House after the 2024 election?

41%

Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2024 US presidential election?

D President, R Senate, D House

29%

R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta

26%

D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta

17%

See 5 more answers

WALZ v. VANCE: 1st Debate Prop Bets (read description)

It is the last debate between any 2 members of the major party tickets, during the month it takes place in

84%

Vance accuses Walz of selling out the US to China (construed broadly)

Walz says "Weird"

Resolved

See 147 more answers

Will Biden finish his term?

94%

Which party will win the US Presidency?

270 to win

Swing States

Democratic

Republican

Michigan

DEM

57%

REP

43%

Wisconsin

DEM

56%

REP

44%

Nevada

DEM

55%

REP

45%

Pennsylvania

DEM

51%

REP

49%

North Carolina

DEM

43%

REP

57%

Georgia

DEM

39%

REP

61%

Arizona

DEM

36%

REP

64%

2024 US Presidential Election

Harris

52%

Trump

47%

Vance

0.3%

Biden

0.2%

Walz

0.2%

Kennedy

0.1%

Haley

0.1%

M. Obama

0.1%

15 more

What will happen if...

Harris wins

Trump wins

Will undocumented immigration at the southern border go down?

Harris wins

65%

Trump wins

78%

Will undocumented immigration at the southern border go down?

65%

78%

Will the president appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?

Harris wins

74%

Trump wins

79%

Will the president appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?

74%

79%

Will marijuana be federally rescheduled from Schedule 1 drug?

Harris wins

77%

Trump wins

42%

Will marijuana be federally rescheduled from Schedule 1 drug?

77%

42%

Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

Harris wins

42%

Trump wins

46%

Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

42%

46%

Will there be an executive order or legislation focused on AI before the 2026 midterms?

Harris wins

88%

Trump wins

54%

Will there be an executive order or legislation focused on AI before the 2026 midterms?

88%

54%

Will gas prices stay under $4 a gallon before the midterms?

Harris wins

70%

Trump wins

54%

Will gas prices stay under $4 a gallon before the midterms?

70%

54%

Will the inflation rate in 2025 be below 2.5%? (Current 3.2%)

Harris wins

71%

Trump wins

78%

Will the inflation rate in 2025 be below 2.5%? (Current 3.2%)

71%

78%

Will the US enter a recession before 2027? (as measured by Sahm rule)

Harris wins

48%

Trump wins

52%

Will the US enter a recession before 2027? (as measured by Sahm rule)

48%

52%

Gallup satisfaction poll greater than Obama

Harris wins

37%

Trump wins

29%

Gallup satisfaction poll greater than Obama

37%

29%

Will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?

Harris wins

74%

Trump wins

64%

Will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?

74%

64%

Will Donald Trump serve time in 2025?

Harris wins

24%

Trump wins

Will Donald Trump serve time in 2025?

24%

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