Trump approval
VoteHub average
36.4%
Past 7 days
Elections
Live prediction market odds on US elections
2026 Midterms
Senate controlchart →
ⓘ
Republicans need 51 seats, or 50 with VP Vance breaking ties, so a 50–50 Senate counts as Republican. The Democratic side is every other outcome, including independents who don’t caucus with Republicans.
House controlchart →
ⓘ
Republicans need 218 seats to keep the House. The Democratic side is any result with fewer than 218 Republicans.
52 DemocraticDD needs 51 · R needs 50 (VP breaks ties)RepublicanR 48
35 of 35 seats with party odds · 65 seats not on the ballot
Loading election map…
Arrow keys move between races. Enter opens details.Republican50 / 50Democratic
Other leadsNo party odds yetNot on ballot · current party
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Polling averages
VoteHub's live polling averages. Bet on whether they go higher or lower.
Generic ballot (D share)
VoteHub average
49.4%
Past 7 days
Vance favorability
VoteHub average
39.8%
Past 7 days
Manifold Midterm Contest
Only on Manifold: the community's contest questions about the campaign trail, from candidate visits to winning margins.
57%chance17 traders
Leading: Voters that were not born in Texas?87%14 traders
23%chance14 traders
18%chance14 traders
34%chance13 traders
17%chance12 traders
28%chance9 traders
Leading: Abdul El-Sayed (Michigan)97%9 traders
What control of Congress would change
The same questions, asked under each outcome of the Senate race. Click a chance to bet on it.
Senate
House
Chance of…
If Democrats win the Senate · 64%
If Republicans keep the Senate · 36%
Gap
A justice leaves the Supreme Court (by Jan 2029)
38-pt gap
Senate confirms a new Supreme Court justice
45-pt gap
40+ federal judges confirmed in 2027–28
59-pt gap
A Cabinet nomination is rejected or withdrawn
44-pt gap
Government shutdown in 2027
16-pt gap
Legislative filibuster ended (by Jan 2029)
4-pt gap
Each market resolves N/A if its condition doesn't happen, so bets only count in that world.
If Democrats win… or Republicans do
Bets on what happens next, depending on who wins. Each is refunded (resolves N/A) if its condition isn't met.
Trending
The hottest midterm markets right now
What the 2028 winner would change
The same questions, asked under a Democratic and a Republican president. Click a chance to bet on it.
Chance of…
If the Democrat wins · 64%
If the Republican wins · 34%
Gap
S&P 500 up by end of 2029 (vs Election Day)
2-pt gap
GDP shrinks in a quarter, 2029–30
No gap
Supreme Court grows beyond nine (by 2033)
20-pt gap
Marijuana federally descheduled (by 2033)
23-pt gap
Legislative filibuster ended (by 2031)
18-pt gap
Federal abortion-rights law (by 2033)
19-pt gap
Bitcoin above $250k at end of 2030
4-pt gap
Each market resolves N/A if its condition doesn't happen, so bets only count in that world.
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