Manifold 2024 Election Forecast
Live prediction market odds on the US election
Trump
99.6%
Harris
0.4%
Which party will win the US Presidency?
270 to win
AKALARAZCACOCTDEFLGAHIIAIDILINKSKYLAMAMDMEMIMNMOMSMTNCNDNENHNJNMNVNYOHOKORPARISCSDTNTXUTVAVTWAWIWVWYDC
DEM
5%
REP
95%
DEM
4%
REP
96%
DEM
4%
REP
96%
DEM
3%
REP
97%
DEM
1.0%
REP
99.0%
DEM
1.0%
REP
99.0%
DEM
1.0%
REP
99.0%
What will happen if...
Will undocumented immigration at the southern border go down?
N/A
85%
Will the president appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?
N/A
81%
Will marijuana be federally rescheduled from Schedule 1 drug?
N/A
44%
Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
N/A
62%
Will there be an executive order or legislation focused on AI before the 2026 midterms?
N/A
84%
Will gas prices stay under $4 a gallon before the midterms?
N/A
51%
Will the inflation rate in 2025 be below 2.5%? (Current 3.2%)
N/A
45%
Will the US enter a recession before 2027? (as measured by Sahm rule)
N/A
61%
Gallup satisfaction poll greater than Obama
N/A
31%
Will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?
N/A
30%
Will Donald Trump serve time in 2025?
N/A
3%
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