This market will resolve based on the outcome of the 2026 United States midterm elections.

 if it secures a majority of voting seats.

A candidate’s party affiliation is determined by how they are listed on the ballot or their clearly identifiable public affiliation at the time the 2026 midterm results are called. Candidates not formally affiliated with the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered aligned with one based on their publicly declared intent to caucus.

 is unclear under the above rules, control will be determined by the party affiliation of the first 

 is unclear, it will be determined by the party affiliation of the first 

 have all conclusively called the outcomes of both chambers. If these sources do not reach consensus, the market will resolve based on the results 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, following the 2026 United States House of Representatives elections, the Republican Party holds at least 218 seats, thereby securing a majority in the House. Conversely, it will resolve to "No" if the Republicans hold fewer than 218 seats. The official election results, as reported by the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, will serve as the primary source for resolution. (

The 2026 midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026, will determine the composition of the 120th United States Congress. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be contested. As of June 2025, the Republican Party holds a narrow majority with 220 seats, while the Democratic Party holds 213 seats. (

⚠️⚠️☣️ AI SLOP ZONE⚠️⚠️☣️ 

No final decision has been made yet; the creator is seeking trader input.

Arizona 2 · Jonathan Nez (D) v. Eli Crane (R)

Colorado 3 · Dwayne Romero (D) v. Jeff Hurd (R)

Maine 2 · Matt Dunlap (D) v. Paul LePage (R)

Michigan 4 · Sean McCann (D) v. Bill Huizenga (R)

Michigan 7 · William Lawrence (D) v. Tom Barrett (R)

Michigan 10 · Christina Hines (D) v. Michael Bouchard (R)

Montana 1 · Sam Forstag (D) v. Aaron Flint (R)

New York 17 · Cait Conley (D) v. Mike Lawler (R)

North Carolina 1 · Don Davis (D) v. Laurie Buckhout (R)

Ohio 9 · Marcy Kaptur (D) v. Derek Merrin (R)

Pennsylvania 1 · Bob Harvie (D) v. Brian Fitzpatrick (R)

Pennsylvania 8 · Paige Cognetti (D) v. Rob Bresnahan Jr. (R)

Texas 15 · Bobby Pulido (D) v. Monica De La Cruz (R)

Virginia 1 · Shannon Taylor (D) v. Rob Wittman (R)

Wisconsin 1 · Mitchell Berman (D) v. Bryan Steil (R)

Wisconsin 3 · Rebecca Cooke (D) v. Derrick Van Orden (R)

Each option provisionally resolves once both the New York Times and Decision Desk HQ (or, if those become defunct, other reliable sources) call the race and do not retract the call for 24 hours. Final resolution will be according to certified results.

Whether a candidate is "a Democrat" is determined by the party affiliation displayed on the ballot (being a Dem as one party on a fusion ticket counts.)

Tracks VoteHub's published time-weighted average of Donald Trump's approval rating (

). The index updates whenever VoteHub's number changes, checked every 5 minutes.

Tracks the Democratic percentage in VoteHub’s published time-weighted 2026 generic-ballot polling average. This is the percentage choosing Democratic—not the Democratic-minus-Republican margin, a two-party-normalized share, a forecast, or the election result. 

Manifold checks VoteHub every 5 minutes and updates the oracle whenever VoteHub’s value changes. Historical chart points come from VoteHub’s published daily series. 

If no sufficiently fresh and valid value can be published for 30 hours, trading pauses. 

After November 3, 2026, this market will be manually settled at the latest accepted VoteHub Democratic-share value. 

It does not settle based on the election result. 

https://votehub.com/polls/?poll=generic_ballot_2026

Tracks the Favorable percentage in VoteHub’s published time-weighted JD Vance favorability polling average. 

This is the percentage viewing JD Vance favorably—not net favorability, approval, or a probability. 

Because polling may be relatively sparse, the value can remain flat for extended periods and then move in larger steps. If no sufficiently fresh and valid value can be published for 30 hours, trading pauses. 

https://votehub.com/polls/?poll=vance_favorability

Can close when the winner is called by AP, Economist, and other major media outlets.

Resolves to the winner. Resolves on media reporting and official results.

Resolves to the winner of the 2026 us senate election in Maine. Resolves according to official results and major media reporting.

Incumbent Democratic Senator from Minnesota Tina Smith, whose seat is up for re-election in 2026, has surprisingly decided not to seek reelection. Who will replace her as Minnesota Senator? Feel free to add answers, especially since the candidate field has yet to be determined at time of market creation. Question will be resolved upon the results of the general election becoming known. I may bet in this market.

Resolves when both AP and DDHQ have called the race, and the calls are not retracted for at least 24 hours. If the race is never called by one of these organizations, resolves when election results are certified.

The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas will be held on November 3, 2026. The winner will be determined by the candidate who receives the most votes in the general election. Primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026. The market resolves to whichever candidate wins the general election. Results can be verified at 

Texas Secretary of State Elections Division

 or major news outlets covering the election results.

If Marco Rubio leaves the Senate, there will be a special election in 2026 to decide who will fill the position for the remaining 2 years of that term. 

If a GOP candidate wins this election, this market resolves yes.

If a non-GOP candidate wins, the election isn't held, or some other outcome occurs, this market resolves NO. 

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate wins the 2026 election to the U.S. Senate from Georgia.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party if such individual is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed affiliation, of that party.

PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.

PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.

Although Republicans are largely expected to win the seat, a recent poll from Public Policy Polling has shown Republicans between 1 and 14 points ahead, a potentially competitive range.

As identified on the ballot, regardless of how they eventually caucus. For the caucus question, see 

Note that the Democratic party is not expected to field a candidate; they've endorsed Osborn.

In the event that Osborn declares for a major party and appears on the ballot as a D or R candidate, this market will resolve to the D or R option.

Texas, but neither California nor New York

Only redistricting that take effect before the midterms counts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by November 3, 2026, the Texas Legislature enacts new congressional district maps AND gains seats in Congress.

The market will resolve “No” if the Texas Legislature enacts new congressional maps, but loses seats or maintains the same number.

The market will resolve to "NA" if no such redistricting occurs by that date. 

In July 2025, President Donald Trump urged Texas Republicans to redraw the state's congressional maps to create five additional GOP-favored districts, aiming to bolster the party's majority in the U.S. House ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Governor Greg Abbott responded by adding redistricting to a special legislative session agenda. Democrats are vulnerable because unlike Texas, Democratic strongholds typically have independent redistricting commissions to ensure nonpartisan districts. (

Texas Republicans currently hold 25 of the state's 38 congressional seats. The proposed redistricting targets districts like that of Democrat Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in the Rio Grande Valley. The current districts are already being challenged under the Voting Rights act for diluting minority rule. Mid-decade redistricting is unprecedented, as is such extreme and blatant partisanship in creating voting districts. Ordinarily districts are redrawn once every ten years to reflect changes in the state population as recorded in the Census. 

Some are speculating that further aggressive gerrymandering in Texas amounts to “dummymandering” that could backfire by galvanizing people into turning out and toppling GOP incumbents in redrawn districts that didn’t elect them. 

A federal district court recently ruled that Texas could not use its 2025 map for the 2026 midterms:

https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/18/politics/texas-redistricting-trump-court-ruling

This question resolves YES if and only if the 2025 map, as enacted by the legislature in August, is actually used for the 2026 midterms (e.g. if the district court's decision is overturned on appeal).

This market resolves yes if Virginia uses a different congressional map for the 2026 elections then the 2024 elections.

There is a current attempt in Virginia to do mid-decade redistricting, similar to several other states. This is particularly complicated in Virginia, because they currently have a bipartisan redistricting commission and passing a constitutional amendment is more difficult than in California. The steps needed (to my understanding:

This market will resolve Yes if Florida uses a different congressional map for the 2026 elections then the 2024 elections.

Governor Ron DeSantis has announced a new map, and there is a special session of the (Republican controlled) legislature to try to pass it. From a legal perspective redistricting in Florida is complicated by the fact that the Florida constitution prohibits partisan gerrymandering (in contrast to other states where the easiest way to avoid legal challenges to to be explicit that you are gerrymandering based on partisanship).

Resolves YES if after the 2026 United States elections members of the Republican party have won at least 51 seats in the Senate, or 50 seats with a Republican Vice President for tie-breaking purposes. Resolves NO otherwise.

If a politically independent/third-party senator is elected, they would count as a Republican for the purposes of this market if they are widely expected to caucus with the Republican party.

"win the House" == when counting all voting representatives who caucus with the Democrats, the Democratic caucus has a majority

"win the Senate" == when counting all voting senators who caucus with the Democrats, the Democratic caucus has a full majority (51+)

 if, as a result of the 2026 United States House of Representatives elections (scheduled for November 3, 2026), the Democratic Party wins back control of the House of Representatives for the 120th Congress.

 if the Republican Party (or any other non-Democratic coalition) retains or wins a majority of seats or successfully organizes the chamber.

 This market will resolve based on the official, certified results compiled by the 

 or respective state election authorities. In the event of pending recounts, runoffs, or legal challenges, the market may remain open until a clear majority of seats are officially decided or organizational control is established at the start of the 120th Congress. Consensus projections from major, reputable news outlets (such as the Associated Press) will be used to determine the result if official certification is delayed past January 2027.

The 2026 midterm elections will take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, midway through President Donald Trump's second term. All 435 voting seats in the House of Representatives are up for election.

Historically, the party of the sitting president tends to lose seats during midterm elections. Following the 2024 elections, Republicans secured a narrow 220-215 majority in the chamber. Because of this slim margin, the Democratic Party only needs a net gain of a few seats to win back control of the House.

This is one of 25 props in the 11th annual Narcissist Forecasting Contest, as described here:

https://braff.co/advice/f/announcing-the-2026-narcissist-forecasting-contest

The prop and any ambiguities will be resolved by a panel of human judges, as described in the fine print of the entry form:

This means that the prop may resolve differently from how other, similar-looking Manifold props resolve. Do not bet on this market if that is going to bother you.

Because "stolen" is a highly subjective and politically charged term, this market will resolve based on a community poll of Manifold users.

The poll will be created by the market creator or a site moderator after the November 3, 2026 midterm elections (no earlier than November 10, 2026, and no later than January 31, 2027).

The creator may also resolve the market to 

 prior to the poll if there is an official, legally binding ruling from a U.S. federal court or state supreme court declaring that the certified outcome of a U.S. Senate race or the overall control of the U.S. House of Representatives was altered due to fraudulent, illegal, or unconstitutional actions coordinated by Donald Trump or the Republican National Committee (RNC).

The 2026 U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2026. They will determine control of the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives during the presidency of Donald Trump. In the lead-up to the election, both major parties are engaged in active legal battles over voting laws, mail-in voting procedures, and voter registration rolls. Because accusations of an election being "stolen" can range from legislative changes to illegal manipulation, this market utilizes a community poll to evaluate the consensus of the term's applicability.

Resolves yes if democrats or an independent,  win any 2026 senate seat election in:

Independents like Dan Osborn and Seth Bodnar and Brian bengs and more count as dems for this market.

Washington Post reports that Trump is expected to bring the USPS under executive control. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/02/20/trump-usps-takeover-dejoy/

Assuming he issues the expected order, and further assuming the order is not overturned before the 2026 midterms, will Trump issue another executive order preventing the delivery or counting of vote-by-mail ballots for the federal elections for the 120th Congress?

This market will also resolve Yes if Congress passes legislation that prevents either the delivery or the counting of vote-by-mail ballots in the same elections.

In the case that such an executive order is issued or such a law is passed, and in practice the order or law only applies to some portion of eligible voters, this market will also resolve Yes.

This market will resolve when the 120th Congress sits for their first session.

2026 United States House of Representatives elections in Wisconsin - Wikipedia

Will turnout in the 2026 midterm exceed that of the 2022 midterm?

Turnout calculated as total voter turnout as percent of citizen voting age population (CVAP). The official source will be the 2026 Election Administration and Voting Survey from the 

, turnout was 46.8% (112,054,124 voters out of 239,035,960 CVAP).

The report is not expected until late June; if a consensus of credible reporting is available sooner, and this market is priced stably, it may resolve early. If things are close or unclear, we may have to wait for the report. If the report is no longer published, a successor report or other comparable official data will be used.