This market will resolve based on the outcome of the 2026 United States midterm elections.

 if it secures a majority of voting seats.

A candidate’s party affiliation is determined by how they are listed on the ballot or their clearly identifiable public affiliation at the time the 2026 midterm results are called. Candidates not formally affiliated with the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered aligned with one based on their publicly declared intent to caucus.

 is unclear under the above rules, control will be determined by the party affiliation of the first 

 is unclear, it will be determined by the party affiliation of the first 

 have all conclusively called the outcomes of both chambers. If these sources do not reach consensus, the market will resolve based on the results 

Presidential Debate

JD Vance

Trump Trials

US Congress

Swing States

Polling

TikTok Ban

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, following the 2026 United States House of Representatives elections, the Republican Party holds at least 218 seats, thereby securing a majority in the House. Conversely, it will resolve to "No" if the Republicans hold fewer than 218 seats. The official election results, as reported by the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, will serve as the primary source for resolution. (

The 2026 midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026, will determine the composition of the 120th United States Congress. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be contested. As of June 2025, the Republican Party holds a narrow majority with 220 seats, while the Democratic Party holds 213 seats. (

⚠️⚠️☣️ AI SLOP ZONE⚠️⚠️☣️ 

Each option provisionally resolves once both the New York Times and Decision Desk HQ (or, if those become defunct, other reliable sources) call the race and do not retract the call for 24 hours. Final resolution will be according to certified results.

Whether a candidate is "a Democrat" is determined by the party affiliation displayed on the ballot (being a Dem as one party on a fusion ticket counts.)

OpenAI

Deepseek

Israel Ceasefire

LA Fire

Oscars 2025

H5N1

Trump

Cabinet

Nintendo Switch 2

Trudeau Resigns

Hard Forkcasts 2025

Korea

Biden

House Speaker

Sora 

Bitcoin

2028 Election

AGI Timelines

Taylor Swift

Elon/Tesla

Sama Drama

AI Math

Twitter

ACX 2024 

One Piece

Music AI Race

Hard Forkasts 2024

AI 2025

Both of them mention 'AI' or 'Artificial intelligence' at least once

'ai':5 'artifici':7 'intellig':8 'least':10 'mention':4

OpenAI is mentioned by name by either candidate

'candid':8 'either':7 'mention':3 'name':5 'openai':1

Trump says 'the best' at least once, exact quote, can be in the middle of another sentence

'anoth':16 'best':4 'exact':8 'least':6 'middl':14 'quot':9 'say':2 'sentenc':17 'trump':1

Biden uses a two word nickname for trump (like Sleepy Joe etc)

'biden':1 'etc':12 'joe':11 'like':9 'nicknam':6 'sleepi':10 'trump':8 'two':4 'use':2 'word':5

'ask':2 'biden':1 'return':7 'tax':6 'trump':3

Trump refuses to yield the microphone when told to by the moderators

'microphon':6 'moder':12 'refus':2 'told':8 'trump':1 'yield':4

Either candidate mentions or alludes to any of Trump's trials.

'allud':5 'candid':2 'either':1 'mention':3 'trial':11 'trump':9

Question about legalizing weed / keeping weed legalized 

'keep':5 'legal':3,7 'question':1 'weed':4,6

Trump makes a claim that the election was stolen/rigged/fraudulent

'claim':4 'elect':7 'make':2 'stolen/rigged/fraudulent':9 'trump':1

Either candidate or the moderator says the word “porn”.

'candid':2 'either':1 'moder':5 'porn':9 'say':6 'word':8

A moderator mentions either candidate's age

'age':7 'candid':5 'either':4 'mention':3 'moder':2

The moderator has to appeal for calm (due to audience interuptions about Palestine or false election theories)

'appeal':5 'audienc':10 'calm':7 'due':8 'elect':16 'fals':15 'interupt':11 'moder':2 'palestin':13 'theori':17

Trump wins debate, as judged by chris (@strutheo)

'chris':7 'debat':3 'judg':5 'strutheo':8 'trump':1 'win':2

Trump wins debate, as indicated by the consensus average of opinion writers on CNN.com, of all articles published before noon the day after the debate

'articl':17 'averag':9 'cnn.com':14 'consensus':8 'day':22 'debat':3,25 'indic':5 'noon':20 'opinion':11 'publish':18 'trump':1 'win':2 'writer':12

Trump makes a major gaffe that is referred to as such on the front page of the New York Times

'front':14 'gaff':5 'major':4 'make':2 'new':18 'page':15 'refer':8 'time':20 'trump':1 'york':19

Biden makes a major gaffe that is referred to as such on the front page of the New York Times

'biden':1 'front':14 'gaff':5 'major':4 'make':2 'new':18 'page':15 'refer':8 'time':20 'york':19

There's a physical barrier between the candidates, or they're in separate rooms.

'barrier':5 'candid':8 'physic':4 're':11 'room':14 'separ':13

Eliezer Yudkowsky makes a post on X that references the debate within 24 hours after the debate ends

'24':13 'debat':11,17 'eliez':1 'end':18 'hour':14 'make':3 'post':5 'refer':9 'within':12 'x':7 'yudkowski':2

hunter biden is mentioned BY NAME not just by reference of 'his son' etc

'biden':2 'etc':14 'hunter':1 'mention':4 'name':6 'refer':10 'son':13

Trump announces selection for Vice President

'announc':2 'presid':6 'select':3 'trump':1 'vice':5

They will not debate each other before the Presidential election

'debat':2 'presidenti':1

After skipping GOP primary debates, Trump challenged Biden to step onto a stage with him before the November election.

Trump says he will debate Biden 'anytime'

Anyone refers to Trump as a "Convicted felon"

Anyone refers to the events of January 6th 2021 at the Capitol as an "insurrection" or "attempted insurrection"

Anyone says "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence"

Walz wins the debate (Subjective: see description)

Walz mentions any part of Trump's history of sexual abuse.

This will be more entertaining than the first Presidential Debate, trump v biden (Subjective: see description)

Walz mentions his time as a football “coach”

Walz calls Vance racist or implies he is (Subjective: see description)

Vance compares Kamala's nomination to a "coup" or says it was "unlawful" or was "unconstitutional" or she was "not-elected" or any other equivalent to implying a kamalacoup (Slightly subjective: see description).

Vance says "BLM" or "Black Lives Matter" at least twice (total combined)

Walz calls Vance an “elitist” (not just his ideas or policy)

Anyone says "Obama", including "ObamaCare"

Anyone says the name of a planet, intentionally or not

Walz mentions his "free school lunch(es)" or "free lunch(es)" program

Vance mentions Walz's "DWI" or "DUI" or "Driving/Drove Drunk" or "Driving/Drove While Intoxicated" or "Driving/Drove Under the Influence"

Vance will be positioned to the right of Walz on stage (audience POV)

Either candidate directly and intentionally quotes lyrics from a song

Tim Walz destroys a rare Magic: The Gathering card in front of Vance to assert dominance

Walz running a “gay-straight alliance” as a high school teacher is mentioned

JD Vance is asked about the "dolphin" tweet

Vance claims to be better at drunk driving than Walz because nobody has caught him yet

Either candidate wears a tie in a color other than red or blue

"Elon Musk" is mentioned ("Elon" or "Musk" count as YES)

JD Vance implies or states that the "22nd Amendment" should be repealed (remove "term limits" or trump should "stay in office" next term)

JD Vance is asked about "texting-" with, or "texts-" with, or that he "texted-" a known "-Holocaust denier" or "-Charles Johnson"

Vance is asked about Trump's age or Trump's health

Either candidate says "my wife" but in a way where they are clearly doing an impression of Borat

(Excluding this one, and any N/As) >50% of answers in this market resolve YES

Both candidates wear a blue suit of any shade

Walz mentions Vance's past comparison of "Trump" to "Hitler"

Vance claims that Walz "lied" about his "service" record, or says "stolen valor"

Anyone mispronounces a name, intentionally or not (Subjective: see description)

Walz notes that “Pence” did not “endorse Trump”

Walz mentions “Pence” by name more than once

Either candidate says "my daughter" or "my son(s)"

“Haiti” or “Haitians” mentioned by either candidate

Vance is fact checked MORE than Walz (called out by moderators for lie)

"Aliens" are mentioned by either candidate

Either candidate says "joy" and then starts humming Symphony No. 9

Anyone says "based", clearly in the adjectival "praiseworthy" sense of the word (e.g. "Trump is based", not "American based companies")

Either candidate is at least 5 minutes late

Anyone says "transgender" OR "trans" specifically meaning transgender

"Execution" of child after birth is mentioned 

Anybody mentions Hillary Clinton (ibnlt "Hillary", "Clinton", "the 2016 Democratic nominee", "Obama's Secretary of State)

Someone talks about Trump refusing to do another presidential debate

Trump posts on Truth Social or X during debate

Vance is the first to say the word “Ohio.”

Vance says "Kamala" or "Harris" before Walz does

Vance claims that the rumors about “migrants eating cats” are true

Anyone says "Al" (the name "Al" with an "L", not "AI" meaning artificial intelligence)

Anyone says "Donald" referring to someone other than either Trump

Either candidate announces a new policy they (or their president) would support (subjective: see description)

Anyone mentions Walz's advisorship of the Mankato HS “gay-straight alliance”

'jd':1 'vanc':2

'trial':2 'trump':1

Donald Trump has been held in contempt of court and fined $9,000 for repeatedly violating a gag order that barred him from making public statements about witnesses, jurors and some others connected to his New York hush money case.

Hush money trial judge raises threat of jail as he finds Trump violated gag order, fines him $9K

Jurors will receive instructions from the judge on the law and the factors they may consider as they strive to reach a verdict in the first criminal case against a former American president.

Jurors in Trump hush money trial end 1st day of deliberations after asking to rehear testimony

Judge Juan Merchan has found former President Donald Trump in contempt for violating the gag order in his hush money trial for the 10th time and said he’ll consider jail time going forward.

Judge finds Donald Trump in contempt for 10th time over gag order and threatens jail time | CNN Politics

A Manhattan jury found Donald Trump guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records he faced in his New York hush money criminal trial.

Donald Trump found guilty of all 34 charges in hush money trial | CNN Politics

Just a moment...

MI-07	OPEN (Slotkin) (D) - Won by 5.42% - Full Toss-up

NC-01	Don Davis (D) - Won by 4.74% - Full Toss-up

WA-03	Marie Perez (D) - Won by 0.82% - Full Toss-up

AZ-01	David Schweikert (R) - Won by 0.88%

CA-13	John Duarte (R) - Won by 0.42% - Full Toss-up

CA-27	Mike Garcia (R) - Won by 6.48% - Full Toss-up

NY-04	Anthony D'Esposito (R) - Won by 3.59%

NY-17	Mike Lawler (R) - Won by 0.64% - Full Toss-up

OR-05	Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R) - Won by 2.08% - Full Toss-up

If the Dem Nom beats Trump, Jon Tester wins the Montana Senate race

If the Dem Nom loses to Trump, Jon Tester wins the Montana Senate race

If the Dem Nom beats Trump, Sherrod Brown wins the Ohio Senate Race

If Dem Nom loses to Trump, Sherrod Brown wins the Ohio Senate Race

     D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta

       R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta

'congress':2 'us':1

Tester has survived three close elections and a changed national political landscape to emerge as the lone Democrat still holding high office in Montana.

A Montana farmer with a flattop and ample lobbyist cash stands between the GOP and Senate control

Brown and Moreno are attempting to run on their own brands of populism while casting the other as out of touch in one of the year’s top Senate battles. 

Sherrod Brown and Bernie Moreno rush to define each other as Ohio's Senate race shifts to the general election

The GOP majority is quite small, but a Democratic takeover pre-election still seems extremely unlikely.

Could Republican resignations flip the House to Democrats?

North Carolina (Presidency and Governorship)

New Hampshire (Presidency and Governorship)

'state':2 'swing':1

For methodology, please see our writeup here. This page will be updated once every day with the newest numbers. It was last updated on November 5th, 2024. Please note that this is a polling aggregator, not a forecast. You can find our current ratings here.

2024 Presidential Polling

realclearpolling.com

'poll':1

Recent surveys and polling aggregation websites indicate Joe Biden's chances of winning the national vote in November have improved significantly.

Joe Biden's astonishing polling comeback

Preserving democracy is top of mind for Democrats and independents, while Republicans are most concerned about immigration. And there are big splits on how to handle immigration in particular.

Here's what matters to voters — and what could change their minds if it's Biden-Trump

TikTok will be sold to a non-Chinese company

TikTok will become unavailable in Apple/Google app stores in the US for at least 30 days

The TikTok "ban" will be rendered unenforceable by courts (with little chance of appeal/overturn)

[option already ruled out] The TikTok "ban" will be vetoed by a president (with little chance of override)

[option already ruled out, as the ban is already law] The TikTok "ban" will go at least a year without movement toward becoming law

Usable by the public and owned by ByteDance

Usable by the public and not owned by ByteDance

Restricted in the US and owned by ByteDance

Kanye West or organisations / investors affiliated with Kanye West

[RESOLVES NO: https://manifold.markets/CalebW/which-company-will-buy-tiktok-resol#tahulw9u8j] - A new US publicly trade entity created to aquire it

'ban':2 'tiktok':1

The bill would require the Chinese firm ByteDance to divest TikTok and other applications it owns within six months of the bill’s enactment.

House passes a bill that could lead to a TikTok ban if Chinese owner refuses to sell

The bill, now advancing to the Senate, represents the most serious threat yet to the video app used by half of Americans.