Manifold 2024 Election Forecast
Live prediction market odds on the US election
Trump
50%
Harris
50%
D President, R Senate, D House
29%
R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta
26%
D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta
17%
It is the last debate between any 2 members of the major party tickets, during the month it takes place in
84%
Vance accuses Walz of selling out the US to China (construed broadly)
6%
Walz says "Weird"
Resolved
NO
Which party will win the US Presidency?
270 to win
AKALARAZCACOCTDEFLGAHIIAIDILINKSKYLAMAMDMEMIMNMOMSMTNCNDNENHNJNMNVNYOHOKORPARISCSDTNTXUTVAVTWAWIWVWYDC
DEM
57%
REP
43%
DEM
56%
REP
44%
DEM
55%
REP
45%
DEM
51%
REP
49%
DEM
43%
REP
57%
DEM
39%
REP
61%
DEM
36%
REP
64%
2024 US Presidential Election
Harris
52%
Kamala Harris
Trump
47%
Donald Trump
Vance
0.3%
JD Vance
Biden
0.2%
Joe Biden
Walz
0.2%
Tim Walz
Kennedy
0.1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Haley
0.1%
Nikki Haley
M. Obama
0.1%
Michelle Obama
15 more
What will happen if...
Will undocumented immigration at the southern border go down?
65%
78%
Will the president appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?
74%
79%
Will marijuana be federally rescheduled from Schedule 1 drug?
77%
42%
Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
42%
46%
Will there be an executive order or legislation focused on AI before the 2026 midterms?
88%
54%
Will gas prices stay under $4 a gallon before the midterms?
70%
54%
Will the inflation rate in 2025 be below 2.5%? (Current 3.2%)
71%
78%
Will the US enter a recession before 2027? (as measured by Sahm rule)
48%
52%
Gallup satisfaction poll greater than Obama
37%
29%
Will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?
74%
64%
Will Donald Trump serve time in 2025?
24%
2%