Manifold 2024 Election Forecast

Live prediction market odds on the US election

2024 US Presidential Election

Trump

59%

Biden

15%

Harris

15%

Newsom

Whitmer

M. Obama

1.4%

Kennedy

Haley

0.2%

13 more

Presidential Nomination

Democratic

Biden

47%

Harris

37%

Whitmer

See 5 more

Republican

Trump

98%

Haley

1.8%

DeSantis

0.5%

See 1 more

Democratic

Biden

47%

Harris

37%

Whitmer

See 5 more

Republican

Trump

98%

Haley

1.8%

DeSantis

0.5%

See 1 more

36%

Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?

47%

Will Trump's VP pick be one of the current top 3? (Burgum, Rubio, Vance)

71%

Will Republicans take the majority in the US Senate in 2024?

80%

Biden vs Trump Polling Average - When will Biden retake the lead? (RCP Currently Trump +2.4%)

Not before Election Day

91%

October 1st - Election Day, November 5th

August

See 8 more answers

What will Trump's sentence for his hush money felony convictions include?

Fine of at least $10,000,000

Fine of at least $1,000,000

Prison time

13%

See 6 more answers

Netanyahu Address to Joint Session of Congress Prop Bets [ADD RESPONSES]

Netanyahu wears a pin with an Israeli flag

97%

More than ten members of Congress wear yellow ribbons

95%

"Hamas" said by Netanyahu more than 5 times

94%

See 15 more answers

June 27th Presidential Debate Prop Bets

Polymarket/UMA officially rule that Biden showed "clear signs of senility" during the debate

32%

Biden calls Trump a "Felon" or a "Convicted criminal"

Resolved

YES

Trump and Biden shake hands

Resolved

See 105 more answers

Can Democrats keep the Senate if Joe Biden loses?

If Biden beats Trump, Jon Tester wins the Montana Senate race

57%

If Biden loses to Trump, Jon Tester wins the Montana Senate race

20%

If Biden beats Trump, Sherrod Brown wins the Ohio Senate Race

66%

See 1 more answer

Will weed / marijuana be rescheduled / legalized before election day?

33%

Which party will win the US Presidency in Arizona?

Democratic Party

35%

Republican Party

65%

Other

Which party will win the US Presidency?

270 to win

Swing States

Democratic

Republican

Michigan

DEM

44%

REP

56%

Pennsylvania

DEM

43%

REP

57%

Wisconsin

DEM

42%

REP

58%

Arizona

DEM

35%

REP

65%

Nevada

DEM

33%

REP

66%

Georgia

DEM

25%

REP

75%

Which party will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Republican Party

59%

Democratic Party

41%

Who would win if they were the Democratic nominee?

Whitmer

66%

Buttigieg

54%

+3% today

Harris

51%

+6% today

Newsom

51%

+6% today

2 more

Whitmer

66%

Buttigieg

54%

+3% today

Harris

51%

+6% today

Newsom

51%

+6% today

2 more

Republican vice presidential nomination

Burgum

32%

-3% today

Vance

24%

+5% today

Rubio

14%

+5% today

Carson

Scott

-3% today

Ramaswamy

Youngkin

-2% today

Byron Donalds (Florida Congressman)

61 more

2024 Democratic presidential nomination

Biden

47%

Harris

37%

Whitmer

Newsom

M. Obama

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

Phillips

0.1%

1 more

2024 Republican presidential nomination

Trump

98%

Haley

1.8%

DeSantis

0.5%

1 more

Trump

98%

Haley

1.8%

DeSantis

0.5%

1 more

What will happen if...

Biden wins

Trump wins

Will undocumented immigration at the southern border go down?

Biden wins

44%

Trump wins

80%

Will undocumented immigration at the southern border go down?

44%

80%

Will the president appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?

Biden wins

48%

Trump wins

65%

Will the president appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?

48%

65%

Will marijuana be federally rescheduled from Schedule 1 drug?

Biden wins

67%

Trump wins

45%

Will marijuana be federally rescheduled from Schedule 1 drug?

67%

45%

Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

Biden wins

30%

Trump wins

43%

Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

30%

43%

Will there be an executive order or legislation focused on AI before the 2026 midterms?

Biden wins

73%

Trump wins

65%

Will there be an executive order or legislation focused on AI before the 2026 midterms?

73%

65%

Will gas prices stay under $4 a gallon before the midterms?

Biden wins

54%

Trump wins

53%

Will gas prices stay under $4 a gallon before the midterms?

54%

53%

Will the inflation rate in 2025 be below 2.5%? (Current 3.2%)

Biden wins

63%

Trump wins

66%

Will the inflation rate in 2025 be below 2.5%? (Current 3.2%)

63%

66%

Will the US enter a recession before 2027?

Biden wins

49%

Trump wins

47%

Will the US enter a recession before 2027?

49%

47%

Gallup satisfaction poll greater than Obama

Biden wins

14%

Trump wins

30%

Gallup satisfaction poll greater than Obama

14%

30%

Will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?

Biden wins

63%

Trump wins

55%

Will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?

63%

55%

Will Donald Trump serve time in 2025?

Biden wins

25%

Trump wins

Will Donald Trump serve time in 2025?

25%