Manifold lets you bet on upcoming events using play money. As other users bet against you, it creates a probability of how likely the event will happen—this is known as a prediction market.
Bet on current events, politics, tech, and AI, or create your own market about an event you care about for others to trade on!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I bet?
Betting contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions.
Bet to win prizepoints! Redeem them and we will donate to a charity of your choice. Our users have raised over $300,000 for charity so far!
Get started for free! No credit card required.

Our mission

  • Provide the most accurate, real-time predictions on any event.
  • Combat misleading news by incentivising traders to be fast and correct.
  • Help people make more informed decisions by improving their model of the future.
  • Intro video

    Everything you need to know in 7 minutes presented by an animated corgi: