Manifold is the world's largest prediction market platform. Bet on politics, tech, sports, and more. Or create your own play-money betting market on any topic you care about!

What is this?

Are our forecasts accurate?
Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability.
By using play money and the combined wisdom of thousands of users, we outperform real-money platforms. For example, in the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all real-money prediction markets and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance.
What are the odds?
The odds are the chance that the event happens.
The odds are set by traders who have insight into the question weighted proportional to their confidence (bet size) and how correct they've been in the past (balance).
Why should I bet?
Betting on questions provides decision-makers with accurate predictions of the future.
It’s like combining the accuracy of sports betting and the stock market to answer important, real-world questions.
Why use play money?
Our play money, () is free to get started with and produces better forecasts.
It's just one click to sign up and start forecasting. Plus, you can cash out your winnings to charity!