About

MANIFOLD
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.

Intro video

Everything you need to know in 7 minutes presented by an animated corgi:

Our mission

  • Provide the most accurate, real-time predictions on any event.
  • Combat misleading news by incentivising traders to be fast and correct.
  • Help people make more informed decisions by improving their model of the future.

    • Socials

    DiscordNewsletterTwitterEmailMobile App

    Still have questions?

    FAQ

    Answers to common questions

    Community guidelines

    Rules, norms, and expectations

    Sitemap

    I can't find something

    If you need help with a specific market please tag @mods in a comment for help!
    © Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules