Each answer resolves YES, if, on or before that date, the FAA issues a launch license that would authorise a third Starship–Super Heavy launch to space, from Boca Chica, Texas. The market close date will be extended as needed, and more dates may be added, based on vibes and rumours.
The existing license that authorised the second flight (itself an amended version of that which authorised the first flight) can be found on the FAA's licenses page:
It is expected that the FAA will further modify the existing license in order to extend its applicability to a third flight.
This market will resolve on statements from the FAA stating that such a license has been issued, or on reliable media reports establishing this, or or on the license document itself appearing on the FAA's website.
In the interests of timely resolution, in the unlikely case that a date has passed without any such evidence appearing of a license being issued, that answer will resolve NO, even if it is later revealed that a license was issued on or before that date.
Edit: relevant timezone is US eastern time.
1,000
1.00Speculation / rumour / probably made up?:
FAA and SpaceX working closely and neither want licence to be issued long before flight in case of legal action against launch licence being issued. So SpaceX decide when they want to launch (mainly depending on weather now) and tell FAA when to actually issue licence probably last thing on day before launch.
@Nat Environmentalist groups like
https://spacenews.com/environmental-groups-sue-faa-over-starship-launch-license/
I think that is ongoing and has extra bits added with each launch
If there was lots of time between licence issue and the launch it authorises, there might be time to build legal argument to suspend the licence until case goes to trial?
Perhaps while this case is ongoing perhaps both FAA and SpaceX prefer the launch licence to authorise just one launch at a time and only ever just before the launch?
fake tweet (please ignore)
@Nat US eastern time.
Sorry, I like to think I'm pretty good at remembering to include timezones, but managed to miss it!
FAA HQ is in DC, and the dates they write on their license documents would normally be in US eastern time I believe. So that's the reasoning.