Each answer resolves YES, if, on or before that date, the FAA issues a launch license that would authorise a third Starship–Super Heavy launch to space, from Boca Chica, Texas. The market close date will be extended as needed, and more dates may be added, based on vibes and rumours.

The existing license that authorised the second flight (itself an amended version of that which authorised the first flight) can be found on the FAA's licenses page:

https://explore.dot.gov/t/FAA/views/CommercialSpaceTransportation/LaunchLicenses?%3Aembed=y&%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y

It is expected that the FAA will further modify the existing license in order to extend its applicability to a third flight.

This market will resolve on statements from the FAA stating that such a license has been issued, or on reliable media reports establishing this, or or on the license document itself appearing on the FAA's website.

In the interests of timely resolution, in the unlikely case that a date has passed without any such evidence appearing of a license being issued, that answer will resolve NO, even if it is later revealed that a license was issued on or before that date.

Edit: relevant timezone is US eastern time.