Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, in calendar year 2024, the New Glenn launch vehicle reaches an altitude of 100 kilometers intact.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
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Can anyone betting on this care to explain their reasoning? Is the New Glenn launch vehicle supposed to be able to do this? Is this the benchmark/goal of the mission? Why is this market hovering at 50%? Uncertainty over whether it will launch at all? Whether they'll try to reach 100 at all? Or whether they'll fail at doing so?
New Glenn is an orbital rocket, so if it successfully launched it would definitely go above 100km (low earth orbit is about 200km). The uncertainty is not about that, but whether a launch will be attempted this year and whether the launch will succeed.