I’m having trouble finding information about what SpaceX is planning for their superheavy. Is it going to do a similar hover maneuver in the ocean to demonstrate that it could land on a barge?
Resolves to YES if the booster for ift-3 successfully does some sort of hover maneuver (achieving very low velocity) above something around sea level (could be ocean, barge, sand dune, whatever), and is within 15 degrees of vertical. Basically, if the chopsticks /could/ have caught it if they were magically transported at exactly the right moment (and also magically worked perfectly), then this would resolve YES.
Resolves to NO if the booster has to be terminated, explodes on its own, crashes into the ocean, or attempts to hover, but can’t stay upright or doesn’t generate enough thrust or doesn’t stay hovering for more than 2s.
If the booster is traded out for a different booster, say, B11 or B12, this market will still be relevant. If ift-3 doesn’t happen until march, this market will still be relevant.
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@ChuckLauerVose I can understand the impulse to leave, many users say they are addicted to Manifold: https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/are-you-addicted-to-manifold
Could you unresolve this question and your other one though? They can be resolved by a mod later. Good luck, and thanks for the good questions while you were here!
I'm not sure whether they will attempt to hover, though they will at least try to approach near zero velocity just above the ocean surface. Falcon 9 is incapable of hovering on its way down because even one engine throttled down has a >1 thrust-to-weight. I expect Superheavy can reach <1 TWR, but since you can land without hovering like the falcon 9 does, they may or may not actually continue to hover if Superheavy manages to stop just above the ocean surface. If Superheavy manages to hit a very low velocity just above the ocean but turns off the engines less than 2 seconds after it does, will this question resolve yes or no?
@TimDuffy I would say that’s a YES. The intention was to ask whether superheavy will make a controlled return to earth all the way to the end without exploding or falling into the ocean sideways. Basically, if there /were/ chopsticks, could they have caught it?
@ChuckLauerVose Perhaps that should be clarified in the description? The way it is worded currently would suggest that a controlled return to earth all the way to the end but without >2s of hover would resolve NO; whereas from your reply I'm gathering it would actually resolve YES?