I’m having trouble finding information about what SpaceX is planning for their superheavy. Is it going to do a similar hover maneuver in the ocean to demonstrate that it could land on a barge?

Resolves to YES if the booster for ift-3 successfully does some sort of hover maneuver (achieving very low velocity) above something around sea level (could be ocean, barge, sand dune, whatever), and is within 15 degrees of vertical. Basically, if the chopsticks /could/ have caught it if they were magically transported at exactly the right moment (and also magically worked perfectly), then this would resolve YES.

Resolves to NO if the booster has to be terminated, explodes on its own, crashes into the ocean, or attempts to hover, but can’t stay upright or doesn’t generate enough thrust or doesn’t stay hovering for more than 2s.

If the booster is traded out for a different booster, say, B11 or B12, this market will still be relevant. If ift-3 doesn’t happen until march, this market will still be relevant.