Trump

1k

Will all living presidents attend Trump’s inauguration?YES

10k

Will Donald Trump NOT be inaugurated?NO

9.9k

What will Trump do on Day 1 of being President?

Resolved

YES

Pardon at least 1 J6 participant

Resolved

YES

End birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants through executive action

Resolved

YES

Declare a national emergency

Resolved

YES

Post on Twitter/X

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10k

Trump impose large tariffs in first year?88% chance

10k

Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?20% chance

25k

What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?

22%

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

15%

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

11%

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

88%

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

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1.3k

What will Trump's first executive order be about?

32%0.9%

Government/Regulations/Elections

21%43%Other

13%0.3%

Climate Change/The Environment/Energy

13%0.2%

Healthcare/ACA

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1.5k

Will Donald Trump repay Elon Musk's backing in good faith?YES

7k

Will Trump publicly disparage Musk within a year of the election?31% chance

7k

If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?62% chance

6.7k

If Trump is elected, will there be an executive order or legislation focused on AI before the 2026 midterms?YES

10k

Will Donald Trump be impeached during his second term?50% chance

21k

When will Trump serve time?

91%

Never

0%

2023 (NO)

0.1%

2024

0.6%

2025

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