Trump

1k

Will all living presidents attend Trump’s inauguration?YES

10k

Will Donald Trump NOT be inaugurated?NO

9.9k

What will Trump do on Day 1 of being President?

74%

Criticize Joe Biden by name

1.0%

Nothing particularly noteworthy, according to a Manifold poll

Resolved

YES

Pardon at least 1 J6 participant

Resolved

YES

End birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants through executive action

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4k

Trump impose large tariffs in first year?75% chance

1k

Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?63% chance

24k

What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?

28%

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

95%

New James Bond actor is presented

9%

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

52%

John Bolton indicted

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1.3k

What will Trump's first executive order be about?

32%0.9%

Government/Regulations/Elections

21%43%Other

13%0.3%

Climate Change/The Environment/Energy

13%0.2%

Healthcare/ACA

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1.5k

Will Donald Trump repay Elon Musk's backing in good faith?YES

7k

Will Trump publicly disparage Musk within a year of the election?28% chance

7k

If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?75% chance

6.7k

If Trump is elected, will there be an executive order or legislation focused on AI before the 2026 midterms?YES

10k

Will Donald Trump be impeached during his second term?37% chance

21k

When will Trump serve time?

95%

Never

0%

2023 (NO)

0.1%

2024

0.5%

2025

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