OpenAI - Event Monday

I/P - Rafah

Trump VP

Drake v Lamar

Trump Trial

Manifest/LessOnline

Twitter

TikTok Ban

NBA Playoffs

Legal Weed

Columbia Protests

Biden-Trump Polls

Presidential Debates

House Speaker

Manifold Sweepstakes

Taylor Swift

Jason Stonks

Key Races

FSK Bridge

One Piece

Music AI Race

Chess

TV Props

WWDC 2024

ACX 2024 

Hard Forkasts

OpenAI Sora

🤖 AI

A gentleman with a cane on a walk, passing behind a very thin birch tree.

'behind':10 'birch':14 'cane':5 'gentleman':2 'pass':9 'thin':13 'tree':15 'walk':8

A gentleman with a cane on a walk, passing behind a large sequoia tree.

'behind':10 'cane':5 'gentleman':2 'larg':12 'pass':9 'sequoia':13 'tree':14 'walk':8

A hot pink six sided dice with blue pips, rotating 360 degrees in outer space.

'360':11 'blue':8 'degre':12 'dice':6 'hot':2 'outer':14 'pink':3 'pip':9 'rotat':10 'side':5 'six':4 'space':15

'astronaut':5 'hors':2 'meadow':8 'ride':3

A horse riding on an astronaut's shoulders in a meadow.

'astronaut':6 'hors':2 'meadow':11 'ride':3 'shoulder':8

An astronaut carrying a horse on his shoulders, walking through a meadow.

'astronaut':2 'carri':3 'hors':5 'meadow':12 'shoulder':8 'walk':9

A 360 degree pan around a Sumerian tablet depicting elephants in a well-lit museum display.

'360':2 'around':5 'degre':3 'depict':9 'display':17 'eleph':10 'lit':15 'museum':16 'pan':4 'sumerian':7 'tablet':8 'well':14 'well-lit':13

A 360 degree pan around a Sumerian tablet in a well-lit museum display. The front depicts bearded dwarves fighting elephants, while the back depicts wedges of Swiss cheese.

'360':2 'around':5 'back':25 'beard':19 'chees':30 'degre':3 'depict':18,26 'display':15 'dwarv':20 'eleph':22 'fight':21 'front':17 'lit':13 'museum':14 'pan':4 'sumerian':7 'swiss':29 'tablet':8 'wedg':27 'well':12 'well-lit':11

A 360 degree pan around an intricately-carved jade elephant in a well-lit museum display.

'360':2 'around':5 'carv':9 'degre':3 'display':18 'eleph':11 'intric':8 'intricately-carv':7 'jade':10 'lit':16 'museum':17 'pan':4 'well':15 'well-lit':14

A six-legged goat running and jumping in an alpine meadow.

'alpin':11 'goat':5 'jump':8 'leg':4 'meadow':12 'run':6 'six':3 'six-leg':2

A goat skull bouncing like a rubber ball in an empty white room.

'ball':8 'bounc':4 'empti':11 'goat':2 'like':5 'room':13 'rubber':7 'skull':3 'white':12

Beautiful video of 15 different moth species flapping their wings, professional photography, 8k, trending on Twitter

'15':4 '8k':13 'beauti':1 'differ':5 'flap':8 'moth':6 'photographi':12 'profession':11 'speci':7 'trend':14 'twitter':16 'video':2 'wing':10

🖥️ Technology

🤖 OpenAI

It can generate videos over 10 minutes long

'10':6 'generat':3 'long':8 'minut':7 'video':4

A second major version of the model has been released

'major':3 'model':7 'releas':10 'second':2 'version':4

A third major version of the model has been released

'major':3 'model':7 'releas':10 'third':2 'version':4

It was accessible to the public before May 2024

Full description of model architecture will be public

'architectur':5 'descript':2 'full':1 'model':4 'public':8

By default, the generated videos will be watermarked

'default':2 'generat':4 'video':5 'watermark':8

It has been referenced in a legal case about deepfakes

'case':8 'deepfak':10 'legal':7 'referenc':4

It has a logo separate from the OpenAI logo

OpenAI will release the number of model parameters

'model':7 'number':5 'openai':1 'paramet':8 'releas':3

It has been integrated as a feature on a major social media platform

'featur':7 'integr':4 'major':10 'media':12 'platform':13 'social':11

It can create a fully coherent short film from a prompt (20-40 minutes)

'-40':13 '20':12 'coher':6 'creat':3 'film':8 'fulli':5 'minut':14 'prompt':11 'short':7

It was trained on data created in a physics/game engine (eg Unreal Engine)

'creat':6 'data':5 'eg':11 'engin':10,13 'physics/game':9 'train':3 'unreal':12

A competing model has challenged Sora's dominance in the text-to-video space

'challeng':5 'compet':2 'domin':8 'model':3 'sora':6 'space':15 'text':12 'text-to-video':11 'video':14

It will be the most popular text to video tool (determined by google search trends)

'determin':11 'googl':13 'popular':6 'search':14 'text':7 'tool':10 'trend':15 'video':9

costs for an average 1 minute HD (or higher quality) video will be lower than $0.50

'0.50':16 '1':5 'averag':4 'cost':1 'hd':7 'higher':9 'lower':14 'minut':6 'qualiti':10 'video':11

it'll be legaly banned in at least one EU country

'ban':5 'countri':11 'eu':10 'least':8 'legali':4 'll':2 'one':9

OpenAI will lose a lawsuit over the model

'lawsuit':5 'lose':3 'model':8 'openai':1

A major studio will use this in a movie or tv show

'major':2 'movi':9 'show':12 'studio':3 'tv':11 'use':5

A post claiming Sora video is real will go viral with > 1 million engagements

'1':12 'claim':3 'engag':14 'go':9 'million':13 'post':2 'real':7 'sora':4 'video':5 'viral':10

It can be used during conversations with ChatGPT on the OpenAI website

'chatgpt':8 'convers':6 'openai':11 'use':4 'websit':12

At least 2 Manifold questions will contain a Sora-generated video in their header

'2':3 'contain':7 'generat':11 'header':15 'least':2 'manifold':4 'question':5 'sora':10 'sora-gener':9 'video':12

It prompts the Hard Fork Podcast to rant about AI model names

'ai':10 'fork':5 'hard':4 'model':11 'name':12 'podcast':6 'prompt':2 'rant':8

It is discussed during a segment of "HatGPT"

It will be pay-per-use (or credit based) as opposed to as part of a monthly subscription

'base':10 'credit':9 'month':18 'oppos':12 'part':15 'pay':5 'pay-per-us':4 'per':6 'subscript':19 'use':7

A youtube video made only with Sora will get > 100M views

'100m':10 'get':9 'made':4 'sora':7 'video':3 'view':11 'youtub':2

A poll of Manifold users will say that 30% or more have created a Sora video in the last month

'30':9 'creat':13 'last':19 'manifold':4 'month':20 'poll':2 'say':7 'sora':15 'user':5 'video':16

A youtube movie >2h will be made with only Sora and splicing videos together will get > 10M views

'10m':17 '2h':4 'get':16 'made':7 'movi':3 'sora':10 'splice':12 'togeth':14 'video':13 'view':18 'youtub':2

A video produced by the model has been used for widely spread misinformation, as reported by a major news outlet

'major':18 'misinform':13 'model':6 'news':19 'outlet':20 'produc':3 'report':15 'spread':12 'use':9 'video':2 'wide':11

It will be jailbroken to make a porn video

'jailbroken':4 'make':6 'porn':8 'video':9

Public access was revoked after release, even if it is later restored

'access':2 'even':7 'later':11 'public':1 'releas':6 'restor':12 'revok':4

For at least one day, the model was generally available to anyone in the United States willing to pay enough without waiting lists or "beta" programs

'anyon':12 'avail':10 'beta':25 'day':5 'enough':20 'general':9 'least':3 'list':23 'model':7 'one':4 'pay':19 'program':26 'state':16 'unit':15 'wait':22 'will':17 'without':21

A poll of Manifold users will say that 20% or less have made a Sora video in the last month

'20':9 'last':19 'less':11 'made':13 'manifold':4 'month':20 'poll':2 'say':7 'sora':15 'user':5 'video':16

The model has had a non-trivial effect on the everday life of the average American, as judged by @Bayesian

'american':17 'averag':16 'bayesian':21 'effect':9 'everday':12 'judg':19 'life':13 'model':2 'non':7 'non-trivi':6 'trivial':8

Eliezer Yudkowsky has stated or implied that the current version or an obsolete version of the model poses or had posed an existential threat to civilization

'civil':26 'current':9 'eliez':1 'existenti':23 'impli':6 'model':17 'obsolet':13 'pose':18,21 'state':4 'threat':24 'version':10,14 'yudkowski':2

A version of the model was the cause of the YES resolution of the "Weak AGI" Metaculus market

'agi':16 'caus':8 'market':18 'metaculus':17 'model':5 'resolut':12 'version':2 'weak':15 'yes':11

Eliezer Yudkowsky states or implies that future versions of the Sora line of models - specifically, by name - are an existential threat to civilization

'civil':23 'eliez':1 'existenti':20 'futur':7 'impli':5 'line':12 'model':14 'name':17 'sora':11 'specif':15 'state':3 'threat':21 'version':8 'yudkowski':2

A nyt bestselling author will release their own bestseller movie/tv adaptation using sora

'adapt':11 'author':4 'bestsel':3,9 'movie/tv':10 'nyt':2 'releas':6 'sora':13 'use':12

There will be a new monthly subscription that includes sora and dalle for creatives

'creativ':14 'dall':12 'includ':9 'month':6 'new':5 'sora':10 'subscript':7

The Sora line of models are being used as simulators for legal investigations - including but not limited to predicting events leading to accidents and crimes

'accid':23 'crime':25 'event':20 'includ':14 'investig':13 'lead':21 'legal':12 'limit':17 'line':3 'model':5 'predict':19 'simul':10 'sora':2 'use':8

The Sora line of models proves to be useful for purposes where the video is secondary, such as research into physics, medicine, and weather

'line':3 'medicin':22 'model':5 'physic':21 'prove':6 'purpos':11 'research':19 'secondari':16 'sora':2 'use':9 'video':14 'weather':24

It will be noticeably worse at or largely unable to generate fast-paced animation

'anim':15 'fast':13 'fast-pac':12 'generat':11 'larg':8 'notic':4 'pace':14 'unabl':9 'wors':5

Technical AI Timelines

Tiktoks / shorts / stories / vertical videos

'short':2 'stori':3 'tiktok':1 'vertic':4 'video':5

SORA

🏦 Economics

'2024':4 'august':3 'june':2 'june-august':1

'2024':4 'decemb':3 'septemb':2 'september-decemb':1

AI Video Generation

pornography

OpenAI Crisis

GPT-5 Speculation

GPT-4 speculation

Sora Text-To-Video

'sora':1 'text':3 'text-to-video':2 'video':5

Introducing Sora, our text-to-video model.Sora can create videos of up to 60 seconds featuring highly detailed scenes, complex camera motion, and multiple ch...