MANIFOLD
US Politics
AI
News
Browse
About
App
Sign in
Dark
Light
(auto)
Columbia Protests
OpenAI - GPT2
Legal Weed
NBA Playoffs
Israel-Arab Conflict
House Speaker
Trump Trial
Trump VP
Biden-Trump Polls
Presidential Debates
Twitter
Manifold Sweepstakes
TikTok Ban
Taylor Swift
Jason Stonks
Key Races
FSK Bridge
One Piece
Music AI Race
Chess
Manifest
TV Props
WWDC 2024
ACX 2024
Hard Forkasts
ACX 2024
The ACX 2024 prediction contest.
Manifold
Leaderboards
Manifold's leaderboards show the top traders, question creators, and referrers.
Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? [ACX 2024]
72%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
2024 US Presidential Election
#
Trump
#
Metaculus
378
Ṁ2.5K
Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? [ACX 2024]
54%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Metaculus
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
#
Cannabis
488
Ṁ3.1K
Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? [ACX 2024]
74%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
2024 US Presidential Election
#
Joe Biden
#
Trump
405
Ṁ2.7K
[ACX 2024] Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?
6%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Twitter
#
Metaculus
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
164
Ṁ1.5K
[ACX 2024] Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?
58%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
#
Metaculus
#
Israel
288
Ṁ2.2K
[ACX 2024] Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?
63%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
#
Metaculus
#
US Politics
154
Ṁ1.5K
Which party will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
51%
Democratic Party
Yes
No
49%
Republican Party
Yes
No
0.1%
Other
Yes
No
#
US Politics
#
2024 US Presidential Election
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
1049
Ṁ8.7K
[ACX 2024] Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?
75%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Metaculus
#
Stocks
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
170
Ṁ1.6K
[ACX 2024] Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?
9%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
#
Metaculus
#
Ukraine
73
Ṁ1.1K
[ACX 2024] Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?
10%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
#
Metaculus
#
Iran
95
Ṁ1.2K
[ACX 2024] Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?
59%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
#
Metaculus
#
Electric Vehicles
65
Ṁ1.1K
[ACX 2024] Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?
6%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Metaculus
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
#
Ukraine-Russia war
111
Ṁ1.3K
[ACX 2024] Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?
6%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
#
Metaculus
#
Ukraine-Russia war
82
Ṁ1.1K
[ACX 2024] Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?
47%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
#
Metaculus
#
2024 US Presidential Election
129
Ṁ1.4K
[ACX 2024] Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?
3%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Metaculus
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
#
Nuclear Risk
72
Ṁ1.1K
[ACX 2024] Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?
6%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
#
Metaculus
#
Wars
79
Ṁ1.1K
[ACX 2024] Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?
21%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
#
Metaculus
#
Public Health
74
Ṁ1.1K
[ACX 2024] Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?
16%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
#
Metaculus
#
US Politics
104
Ṁ1.2K
[ACX 2024] Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?
41%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
#
Metaculus
#
Refugees
69
Ṁ1.1K
[ACX 2024] In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?
22%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Metaculus
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
#
SCOTUS
78
Ṁ1.1K
See more questions:
Politics
News
Browse
About
Sign in