AGI Timelines

2.2k
Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?33% chance
30k
AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]2,029
10k
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize (v1, 2024 dataset) be claimed by end of 2025?31% chance
10k
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?64% chance
CNET
There's AI, and Then There's AGI: What You Need to Know to Tell the Difference
It's currently the Schrodinger's cat of AI: simultaneously humanlike and not human at all.
2.1k
Will a high-volume prediction market expect OpenAI to create AGI before 2030?YES
2.1k
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?61% chance
2.2k
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?75% chance
1.4k
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2100?87% chance
Dear Elon Musk, here are five things you might want to consider about AGI
Should we really expect artificial general intelligence in 2029?
1k
Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?89% chance
1.3k
By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)95% chance
1.7k
By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)96% chance
1.5k
In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)64% chance
1k
In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)84% chance
1.2k
In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)82% chance
TIME
The AI Arms Race Is On. Start Worrying
As ChatGPT and Dall-E take off, tech companies like Google, Meta and Microsoft are moving fast on AI. That could prove catastrophic
2.4k
Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?52% chance
6.2k
What organization will be the first to create AGI?
28%
Other
23%
OpenAI
21%
DeepMind
7%
The US Government (DARPA or Similar Org)
See 8 more answers
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