AGI Timelines

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Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?29% chance
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Will the ARC-AGI Grand Prize be claimed in 2024?NO
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AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]2,028
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Will the ARC-AGI grand prize (v1, 2024 dataset) be claimed by end of 2025?54% chance
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Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?55% chance
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ARC-AGI Prize 2024 (Dwarkesh Podcast) - Which of these scores will be achieved during the 2024 competition?
Resolved
YES
≥50%
Resolved
NO
≥70%
Resolved
NO
≥85%
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Will a high-volume prediction market expect OpenAI to create AGI before 2030?99% chance
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Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?42% chance
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Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?66% chance
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Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2100?79% chance
Dear Elon Musk, here are five things you might want to consider about AGI
Should we really expect artificial general intelligence in 2029?
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Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?89% chance
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By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)95% chance
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By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)96% chance
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In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)63% chance
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In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)83% chance
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In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)82% chance
TIME
The AI Arms Race Is On. Start Worrying
As ChatGPT and Dall-E take off, tech companies like Google, Meta and Microsoft are moving fast on AI. That could prove catastrophic
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Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?54% chance
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What organization will be the first to create AGI?
30%
OpenAI
28%
Other
23%
DeepMind
8%
Anthropic
See 7 more answers
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