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AGI Timelines

Ṁ2.2k
Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?
NO
Ṁ2.2k
Ṁ30k
AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]
2,034
Ṁ30k
Ṁ10k
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize (v1, 2024 dataset) be claimed by end of 2025?
NO
Ṁ10k
Ṁ10k
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
54% chance
Ṁ10k
CNET
There's AI, and Then There's AGI: What You Need to Know to Tell the Difference - CNET
It's currently the Schrodinger's cat of AI: simultaneously humanlike and not human at all.
Ṁ2.1k
Will a high-volume prediction market expect OpenAI to create AGI before 2030?
YES
Ṁ2.1k
Ṁ2.1k
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?
39% chance
Ṁ2.1k
Ṁ2.2k
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?
69% chance
Ṁ2.2k
Ṁ1.4k
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2100?
86% chance
Ṁ1.4k
Dear Elon Musk, here are five things you might want to consider about AGI
Should we really expect artificial general intelligence in 2029?
Ṁ1k
Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?
93% chance
Ṁ1k
Ṁ1.3k
By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)
87% chance
Ṁ1.3k
Ṁ1.7k
By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)
84% chance
Ṁ1.7k
Ṁ1.5k
In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)
56% chance
Ṁ1.5k
Ṁ1k
In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)
91% chance
Ṁ1k
Ṁ1.2k
In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)
77% chance
Ṁ1.2k
Ṁ2.4k
Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?
31% chance
Ṁ2.4k
Ṁ6.2k
What organization will be the first to create AGI?
30%
Anthropic
23%
OpenAI
18%
DeepMind
14%
Other
See 8 more answers
Ṁ6.2k