AGI Timelines

Ṁ2.2k

Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?

NO

Ṁ30k

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

2,035

Ṁ10k

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize (v1, 2024 dataset) be claimed by end of 2025?

NO

Ṁ10k

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

54% chance

Ṁ2.1k

Will a high-volume prediction market expect OpenAI to create AGI before 2030?

YES

Ṁ2.1k

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?

38% chance

Ṁ2.2k

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?

68% chance

Ṁ1.4k

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2100?

86% chance

Dear Elon Musk, here are five things you might want to consider about AGI

Should we really expect artificial general intelligence in 2029?

Ṁ1k

Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?

93% chance

Ṁ1.3k

By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)

87% chance

Ṁ1.7k

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

82% chance

Ṁ1.5k

In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)

56% chance

Ṁ1k

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

91% chance

Ṁ1.2k

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

77% chance

Ṁ2.4k

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

31% chance

Ṁ6.2k

What organization will be the first to create AGI?

29%

Anthropic

23%

OpenAI

19%

DeepMind

14%

Other

See 8 more answers