AGI Timelines

Plus

Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?27% chance

Premium

Will the ARC-AGI Grand Prize be claimed in 2024?NO

Premium

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]2,030

Premium

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2025?48% chance

Premium

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?51% chance

Premium

ARC-AGI Prize 2024 (Dwarkesh Podcast) - Which of these scores will be achieved during the 2024 competition?

Resolved

YES

≥50%

Resolved

NO

≥70%

Resolved

NO

≥85%

There's AI, and Then There's AGI: What You Need to Know to Tell the Difference

It's currently the Schrodinger's cat of AI: simultaneously humanlike and not human at all.

Plus

Will a high-volume prediction market expect OpenAI to create AGI before 2030?77% chance

Plus

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?38% chance

Plus

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?71% chance

Plus

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2100?75% chance

Dear Elon Musk, here are five things you might want to consider about AGI

Should we really expect artificial general intelligence in 2029?

Plus

Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?87% chance

Plus

By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)94% chance

Plus

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)96% chance

Plus

In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)53% chance

Plus

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)83% chance

Plus

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)71% chance

The AI Arms Race Is On. Start Worrying

As ChatGPT and Dall-E take off, tech companies like Google, Meta and Microsoft are moving fast on AI. That could prove catastrophic

Plus

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?44% chance

Plus

What organization will be the first to create AGI?

34%

Other

21%

DeepMind

18%

OpenAI

15%

Anthropic

See 7 more answers

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules