AGI Timelines

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Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?23% chance

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Will the ARC-AGI Grand Prize be claimed in 2024?7% chance

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AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]2,030

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Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2025?55% chance

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Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?57% chance

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ARC-AGI Prize 2024 (Dwarkesh Podcast) - Which of these scores will be achieved during the 2024 competition?

8%

≥70%

5%

≥85%

Resolved

YES

≥50%

There's AI, and Then There's AGI: What You Need to Know to Tell the Difference

It's currently the Schrodinger's cat of AI: simultaneously humanlike and not human at all.

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Will a high-volume prediction market expect OpenAI to create AGI before 2030?76% chance

What Is Artificial Superintelligence? | IBM

Artificial superintelligence is a hypothetical software-based AI system with intellect beyond human intelligence.

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Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?37% chance

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Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?70% chance

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Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2100?82% chance

Dear Elon Musk, here are five things you might want to consider about AGI

Should we really expect artificial general intelligence in 2029?

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Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?90% chance

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By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)94% chance

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By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)96% chance

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In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)46% chance

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In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)82% chance

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In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)65% chance

The AI Arms Race Is On. Start Worrying

As ChatGPT and Dall-E take off, tech companies like Google, Meta and Microsoft are moving fast on AI. That could prove catastrophic

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Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?44% chance

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What organization will be the first to create AGI?

33%

Other

23%

DeepMind

18%

OpenAI

11%

Anthropic

See 7 more answers

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