A followup to this market.

The recent Starship–Super Heavy full stack flight test was intended to be slightly suborbital.

There are two ways a trajectory can be suborbital: either the vehicle can be going too slow, or it can be pointed in the wrong direction to complete a full orbit.

Which will apply to Starship, on the next flight test of a Starship–Super Heavy full stack that makes it as far as 2nd stage engine cutoff (SECO)?

This market will resolve YES if, at any altitude, Starship has a total energy (kinetic plus potential) greater than that of a 160km altitude circular orbit (close to the lowest possible circular orbit).

That is, this market resolves YES if, for any altitude h, Starship's speed v satisfies:

where G is the gravitational constant, M is the mass of the Earth, and R is the radius of the Earth.

For example:

h = 150 km, v > 7824 m/s

h = 175 km, v > 7794 m/s

h = 200 km, v > 7765 m/s

h = 225 km, v > 7735 m/s

Note that the speed indicator on SpaceX's live stream is in a frame of reference rotating with the Earth, but the above speeds refer to the speed of Starship in the equivalent non-rotating frame.

Thus depending on how close Starship is to the above thresholds, resolution may require estimating Starship's vertical velocity from the altitude indicator, and perhaps its heading from maps of the planned trajectory as well, in order to add Earth's rotation speed only to the eastward component of Starship's velocity in the rotating frame, to convert to the nonrotating frame. If, due to uncertainty, this calculation is too close to give a clear result, and barring clarifying official statements or other data that could help resolve it, the market will resolve N/A.

This question is equivalent to asking whether Starship will at any point be on a trajectory with a semimajor axis greater than 160km (plus Earth's radius). So official numbers on the apogee and perigee would also be sufficient to resolve it (unofficial estimates would have to come from the velocity data anyway).

Market stays open until a Starship–Super Heavy launch reaches SECO, or resolves N/A if the development of Starship/Super Heavy as we know it ceases.