A year too long how about 6.5 months on number

https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/resolve-increases-20-for-each-stars?r=Q2hyaXN0b3BoZXJSYW5kbGVz

@ChristopherRandles Is this different than a yes /no? I am understanding if 3 launches then yes if 2 then no but that doesn’t seem right…

@ZacharyAustin No 3 resolves at 60% 4 resolves at 80%

So it is a how many rather than a yes/no.

It is nicer to have a probability distribution but this is cheaper to create and simpler to see the expected number.

There could be a lot of launches, anyone seen a market for starship reuse?

I think they could easily build a rocket every month possibly ramping to two/mo by end of next year

I suppose these were meant to be mutually exclusive options?

@AnttiTarvainen Alternatively they could be cumulative? If there have been 5 launches that means there certainly has been 4 launches, etc. @DAL59 could you clarify that?

@TheBayesian Right, current market looks like that’s how people at mostly interpreting it. Works for me but would be good to clarify.

@AnttiTarvainen it looks very clearly like people aren't interpreting it as cumulative to me, otherwise you wouldn't have this rise and fall. Changing the interpretation to cumulative would be bad practice imo (but also I'm marginally invested in the current strategy 😁 )

@spider The norm is that when they are mutually exclusive the market is made to sum to 1, and currently it clearly doesn’t and peop’e clearly haven’t enforced the ‘sums to 1’ rule, so im not sure if the fact that the price is incoherent under one interpretation makes it more likely that the other one is correct, since they both are not coherent to the current prices?

@spider If they are not cumulative then obviously you should by NO on all of them and make about 4x profit.

Oh wait, I’m now realizing the msrket creator hasn’t had any activity on the site for 2 months, so probably will never clarify this. I suppose we can either ask a mod to settle this in the spirit of the usual manifold norms, or have the market be resolved NA, or something else

I'm still not understanding how you guys could possibly read it as cumulative, based on the title "How many Starship launches will there be between now and the end of 2024?". This feels pretty cut and dry to me, most options are overvalued since it's a low volume market and it started at 50%.

good point on the wording, hmmm

@AnttiTarvainen Yes, because numerical markets were removed for some reason so I had to do it this way

@DAL59 I think traders find it odd that it's unlinked if theyre mutually exclusive, but it's an interesting experiment this way. thanks for the clarification!

@DAL59 Can you please update the description to clarify that exactly one answer will resolve Yes and every other one will resolve No.

@Eliza Oh, you just did, thanks.