Will SpaceX perform at least 144 successful orbital launches in the year 2024?
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Do Starship launches count if they are close to orbital energy but actually suborbital?

@ChristopherRandles They will count if there is a significant number of them in the year.

@AristotelisKostelenos Interesting. How many is significant? (FWIW I would have thought it would be yes or no or only those that deploy payload so that traders know where they are in betting.)

@AristotelisKostelenos Would also like clarification on this point

@Nat you're both right on wanting clarification. I'm now deciding that if an intentional suborbital starship launch occurs and the delta V difference to an orbital trajectory was trivial it will count if it is successful.

@AristotelisKostelenos >"it will count if it is successful." Just checking whether this is just the launch that has to be successful or the whole flight or something else? (What determines success for a test launch can be tricky if we don't know the objectives)


@ChristopherRandles just the launch. It has to enter that suborbital trajectory.

bought Ṁ10 YES

@AristotelisKostelenos Did IFT3 count for this market?

@Mqrius I would lean towards not including it since it didn't actually reach orbit, only a suborbital trajectory. I know it's nitpicking but that in combination with starship not relighting it's engine and having attitude control issues while in flight just doesn't feel like it can be called a successful orbital launch. I would love to hear opinions on this though.

@AristotelisKostelenos You previously said "you're both right on wanting clarification. I'm now deciding that if an intentional suborbital starship launch occurs and the delta V difference to an orbital trajectory was trivial it will count if it is successful."
and in response to "What determines success for a test launch?"
"just the launch. It has to enter that suborbital trajectory."

The lack of relight made no difference to the plan to bellyflop crash into ocean and that is well after the launch phase so it feels like a change. However. there was a mishap that needed an investigation so perhaps using mishap investigation needed as the criteria to say flight 3 was not successful seems more appropriate to me.

I am not too worried whichever way you want to say for flight 3, just as long as we know before too long passes.

@ChristopherRandles Ok. It counts. TBH I wouldn't expect it to make a difference on the outcome either way but it's best to be consistent on these sorts of things and flight 3 meets my previously set rules.

@AristotelisKostelenos we'll see, 144 is right on the balance of predictions, maybe it will end up mattering :D

Glad to have a clear definition anyway!

predicts NO

Previous goals and their outcomes:
2023: Goal 100, Actual just shy of that
2022: Goal 60, Actual 61

2021: Goal 48, Actual 31