Will SpaceX perform at least 144 successful orbital launches in the year 2024?
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Do Starship launches count if they are close to orbital energy but actually suborbital?

@ChristopherRandles They will count if there is a significant number of them in the year.

@AristotelisKostelenos Interesting. How many is significant? (FWIW I would have thought it would be yes or no or only those that deploy payload so that traders know where they are in betting.)

@AristotelisKostelenos Would also like clarification on this point

@Nat you're both right on wanting clarification. I'm now deciding that if an intentional suborbital starship launch occurs and the delta V difference to an orbital trajectory was trivial it will count if it is successful.

bought แน€10 of YES

@AristotelisKostelenos >"it will count if it is successful." Just checking whether this is just the launch that has to be successful or the whole flight or something else? (What determines success for a test launch can be tricky if we don't know the objectives)


@ChristopherRandles just the launch. It has to enter that suborbital trajectory.

predicts NO

Previous goals and their outcomes:
2023: Goal 100, Actual just shy of that
2022: Goal 60, Actual 61

2021: Goal 48, Actual 31