All markets that close at the turn of the new year

2022 year end countdown

The Prince - a podcast from The Economist 

CCP 20th Party Congress

Few leaders of any state have achieved the heights of power and prestige reserved for 

. President is actually only his third most important political title, the 

General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)

Supreme Commander of the People’s Liberation Army

It is at the National People’s Congress, essentially the CCP’s convention held every five years where the ceremonial announcement and formal introduction of the leaders chosen to form the next Chinese government takes place.

Western political systems have long operated based on a combination of norms detailed written documents that lay out the processes and procedures for maintaining the continuity of government and implementing the will of the people. In China things operate very differently, with the norms established by Deng Xiaoping shaping the actions of his successors in much the same way US Presidents prior to Franklin Roosevelt retired after two terms because of the guiding norm and precedent established by George Washington. 

The most speculated on news that will come from the 20th People’s Congress will be the selection of the 25 member Politburo and its seven member Politburo Standing Committee, which is where the real power and policy emanates from in the Chinese system. 

News from Washington on the eve of Xi’s big party is ominous and getting worse by the day. Just this past week Biden’s Commerce Department basically 

eliminated China’s access to the American high-end semiconductor industry

 by instituting the most sweeping and strategically targeted export controls in more than a decade. 

Many are anticipating the strongest retaliation in economic/trade policy from China to date, but nobody is yet guessing how bold Xi will be. The People’s Congress provides Xi with the perfect stage to voice his grievances and show his people he won’t be intimidated, he won’t back down in the face of US pressure, he will fight alongside his Wolf Warrior diplomatic corps for 

Unfortunately for the Secretary General a little old lady from the US turned up the heat on the issue of Taiwan from simmering to a slow boil over the last few months. US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi did what she does better than any woman to ever live, 

. Despite literal hysteria across China, and critically not offering Xi any way to save face on the issue, Pelosi visited followed by 

This tournament is intended to see if prediction markets can bring any insight to forecasting the words and actions of the most mysterious man alive. 

Xi spent his first 60 years hiding in plain sight under the large shadows cast by his much more famous father and wife. Now it is his shadow that casts down on the entire world, and yet we barely know him.

Who does Xi think he is?

Tesla AI Day

Markets attempting to identify the owners of the most active anonymous accounts.

About post for the group

Unmask Manifold

Sure, there is still King Charles, the only retiree whose first full time job of his life isn't at McDonald's or Walmart or whatever but Commander in Chief of the Royal Armed Forces. I bet the brits woke up to nightmares of buzzbombs for the few weeks the empire was in the trusty hands of Elizabeth Truss and King Charles, neither of whom earned their office so much as they inherited it upon the death of its previous holder (figuratively speaking in the case of Truss who was the beneficiary of Boris Johnson's slow motion political harikiri).

But now we have at least one leader who is the first to represent the future of the British empire, 42 year old Rishi Sunak, the first Millennial leader of any G8 nation. As far as I am concerned, it comes not a moment too soon, as the world sits at the precipice of 'who fucking knows what' there should be at least one person at the table representing those of us who plan/hope to be alive for the next 50 years. 

The question that hangs over Sunak going into the G20 is whether or not his counterparts will treat him like he will be back next year. 

 has been hanging quotes like this on the walls of Zhongnanhai for his new PSC colleagues like 

. I think Prime Millennial Sunak will do better than carry his own weight; I believe he can provide heavy intellectual firepower to his octogenarian counterpart from America when the GOP Congress tries to destroy him and his family come next January while he is fighting Putin in Europe and Xi in Asia. 

The West desperately needs more young, vibrant and confident leaders like Rishi Sunak if we are to survive the great geopolitical and ideological struggle that may have already begun. 

Prime Millennial

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The gerontocracy that has ruled the United Kingdom for decades is finally (half) over

Prime Millennial: Rishi Sunak is here to bring the UK into the 21st Century (finally)

These markets are curated predictions made by Scott Galloway, Professor at NYU Stern School, in various media such as the 

, or while appearing as a shiny talking head on all the TV shows. 

Galloway is track to be remembered as the Gore Vidal of his era, famously adhering to Vidal's maxim of never passing up the opportunity to have sex or appear on television. True living legend. 