Trump VP

Columbia Protests

OpenAI - GPT2

Legal Weed

NBA Playoffs

Trump Trial

Israel-Arab Conflict

Biden-Trump Polls

House Speaker

Presidential Debates

Twitter

Manifold Sweepstakes

TikTok Ban

Taylor Swift

Jason Stonks

Key Races

FSK Bridge

One Piece

Music AI Race

Chess

Manifest

TV Props

WWDC 2024

ACX 2024 

Hard Forkasts

🤖 AI

Meta-Forecasting

🖥️ Technology

Social Media

Threads overtakes X in daily users and becomes the leading text-based social network.

'base':13 'becom':8 'daili':5 'lead':10 'network':15 'overtak':2 'social':14 'text':12 'text-bas':11 'thread':1 'user':6 'x':3

Bluesky begins to wither as its development team prioritizes building its underlying protocol over growth, community management, and making improvements to the user experience.

'begin':2 'blueski':1 'build':10 'communiti':16 'develop':7 'experi':24 'growth':15 'improv':20 'make':19 'manag':17 'priorit':9 'protocol':13 'team':8 'under':12 'user':23 'wither':4

Google mostly catches up to OpenAI in LLM quality and begins to neutralize GPT's lead.

'begin':11 'catch':3 'googl':1 'gpt':14 'lead':16 'llm':8 'most':2 'neutral':13 'openai':6 'qualiti':9

The quality of search results degrades as Google proves unable to reliably detect AI-generated content.

'ai':15 'ai-gener':14 'content':17 'degrad':6 'detect':13 'generat':16 'googl':8 'prove':9 'qualiti':2 'reliabl':12 'result':5 'search':4 'unabl':10

Scaled-up AI-generated sludge outcompetes many digital media companies for advertising and affiliate-link dollars, sparking further waves of job losses and consolidation.

'advertis':14 'affili':17 'affiliate-link':16 'ai':5 'ai-gener':4 'compani':12 'consolid':27 'digit':10 'dollar':19 'generat':6 'job':24 'link':18 'loss':25 'mani':9 'media':11 'outcompet':8 'scale':2 'scaled-up':1 'sludg':7 'spark':20 'wave':22

The US presidential election is full of synthetic media, and it mostly doesn’t matter.

'doesn':13 'elect':4 'full':6 'matter':15 'media':9 'most':12 'presidenti':3 'synthet':8 'us':2

Fragmentation in social media will make it more difficult to understand which narratives are resonating most with voters.

'difficult':9 'fragment':1 'make':6 'media':4 'narrat':13 'reson':15 'social':3 'understand':11 'voter':18

TikTok skates unscathed through another presidential administration.

'administr':7 'anoth':5 'presidenti':6 'skate':2 'tiktok':1 'unscath':3

Apple's Vision Pro is successful enough to revive interest in mixed reality and the metaverse.

'appl':1 'enough':7 'interest':10 'metavers':16 'mix':12 'pro':4 'realiti':13 'reviv':9 'success':6 'vision':3

The number of people who say they are in romantic relationships with AI companions will increase sharply.

'ai':13 'companion':14 'increas':16 'number':2 'peopl':4 'relationship':11 'romant':10 'say':6 'sharpli':17

Meta kills off its incomprehensible celebrity-based AI characters.

'ai':9 'base':8 'celebr':7 'celebrity-bas':6 'charact':10 'incomprehens':5 'kill':2 'meta':1