For it to count as a launch the rocket needs to complete the countdown sequence and the holdown clamps need to release. A scrub won't count as a launch. Achieve orbit means pushing the payload to orbital velocity.
1,000
3.00@Sailfish Which of these scenarios would resolve yes?
Upper stage reaches an orbital velocity but undergoes RUD before reaching the target orbit or payload deploy.
As #1 but instead of RUD, it just fails to reach target orbit or deploy payload.
As #2 but it successfully deploys the payload in the unexpected orbit anyhow.
Reaches target orbit but undergoes RUD before deployment (e.g. at or shortly after SECO).
As #4 but instead of RUD, payload deployment just fails.
Thanks!
First Orbital Attempt Success Rate for new US Rockets since 2000
Vulcan Centaur ✅
Relativity Terran 1 ❌
ABL RS1 ❌
SLS ✅
Firefly Alpha ❌
Virgin Orbit LauncherOne ❌
Astra Rocket 3.1 ❌
Falcon Heavy ✅
Electron ❌
Minotaur V ✅
Antares ✅
Falcon 9 ✅
Minotaur IV ✅
Falcon 1 ❌
Delta IV ✅
Atlas V ✅
Atlas III ✅
Minotaur I ✅
Just looking at history, it's exactly what you'd expect. Being old-space helps a lot. Lineage from an existing system also helps a fair deal. The BE-4 launches on Vulcan Centaur are a good sign, sure, but the BE-3Us don't really seem that similar to anything that's flown. I can't see any reason why this market is up at 75%.
@spider Every single failure listed is a budget constrained Small lift vehicle from a startup. Blue Origin shares significantly more in business philosophy, budget and rocket design with the successful launches than the unsuccessful ones. They also have no rush or incentive to risk their first launch when they are applying for DOD contracts. While they themselves are not old space they operate most like them. I personally think 75% is about what you'd expect considering the diminishing returns of buying yes now and assuming my previous statements are true.
PS Thanks for compiling that list that is pretty interesting and a good source of debate.