Each date resolves YES if a 3rd Starship launch, intended to reach space, takes place before that date (local time at the launch site). Otherwise NO.

A "launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines.

"Starship" is defined as any vehicle designs descended from the existing designs of Starship - i.e. if they make substantial changes or rename the vehicle, it still counts. But a vehicle based on e.g. the Falcon 9 would not count, even if SpaceX called it a Starship.

Only missions with a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude) count. So a 10km altitude flight test does not count.

See https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/by-which-dates-in-2023-will-the-sec for the 2nd test.