Will Blue Origin's New Glenn launch before 2025?
➕
Plus
84
Ṁ36k
Dec 31
9%
chance
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

The launch is now listed on https://www.cadenaois.org/vpublic_anspdetail.jsp?view=15 ("Primary Launch Day 31 Dec 0430Z-0745Z Backup Launch Day (1) 01 Jan 0430Z-0745Z"), but it doesn't seem likely unless the static fire happens very soon.

bought Ṁ100 NO from 21% to 20%
opened a Ṁ100 NO at 50% order

@dp9000 especially since the backup launch window straddles midnight on New Years Eve, I see this as a top-down estimate. Someone really wants it launched by a particular date/time, rather than the target being driven by readyness.

Sometimes that works out. Usually it doesn't.

bought Ṁ50 YES

Dave Limp tweeted today:

We are all clear to complete a wet dress rehearsal this week ahead of hotfire for #NewGlenn

Marcia Smith tweeted:

At SFA Spacepower conf this am, Blue Origin's Lars Hoffman said they'll launch New Glenn "within the next few weeks." Vehicle's ready but "there's a process we have to follow to ensure that we're on a path to success." But it'll be "this year," "maybe for Christmas."

Dave Limp tweeted today:

"While we wait for regulatory approvals for hotfire and launch, here’s a photo (and a bonus video) of our “chilling” GS1. This marks the first time we’re tanking our first stage with liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquid oxygen (LOX)."

Sounds like they're getting close to launch, but I still think it'll go in early 2025 rather than this year. They've yet to do a wet dress rehearsal, and the LH2 that the upper stage uses is by all accounts a real devil to work with.

Plus, the last week of the month will get clipped by the holidays, unless they're really close and choose to rally around the launch being a "present". Given Blue Origin's pace so far, that doesn't seem likely.

@DanHomerick When they replaced the Blue Origin CEO, I was shocked they chose someone with a name like "Limp". It's a very weak sounding name and is bad for morale. If they had someone named "Shotwell" things would be more promising.

@AlQuinn yeah, he's got a name that's easy to make fun of. Moving on...

@AlQuinn Should of put Manley in charge.

bought Ṁ250 NO

Guess they should have spent more on engineers and less on lawyers

bought Ṁ40 YES

https://www.blueorigin.com/news/blue-origin-debuts-new-glenn-on-our-launch-pad

New Glenn is stacked and on the pad!

(Without engines)

(And not flight hardware)

He declined to “put a percentage out there” on the odds the launch will happen on schedule.

Booooooo

predictedNO

Putting payloads on a first flight again, smh. Hope they build spares.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules