Will Blue Origin’s New Glenn be used for the ESCAPADE mission as planned (ie. be ready to launch by August 2024)
19
1.7k
Sep 2
54%
chance

This question resolves YES if the New Glenn rocket is used to launch the ESCAPADE mission during the 2024 launch window (even if it launches a couple weeks late). If ESCAPADE does not launch for other reasons but New Glenn is very clearly otherwise ready and not the cause of the delay then it will also resolve YES.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

https://spacenews.com/nasa-planning-september-launch-of-mars-smallsat-mission-on-first-new-glenn/
"slated to be launching Sept. 29"

But a first launch slipping would not be at all unusual.

Still could do with agreement on what is sensible for this market to get it changed. I think September launch of Escapade should resolve yes perhaps even December 2024 launch of escapade should resolve yes. Launching something else then Escapade seems unlikely. Do other traders agree or think differently?

@ChristopherRandles Yes, I think the description says that what matters is that New Glenn is ready to launch the spacecraft on a trajectory that generally falls into the 2024 window to Mars, as opposed to the 2026 window or having it launch on a different rocket. Even an early 2025 launch should count because it would still be in this same launch window.

@dp9000 Yes I would be happy with that interpretation, as long as we know what we are betting on.

Does anyone disagree - i.e. think the "2024 launch window" should be interpreted as the formerly planned August launch from earth planning date and not the 2024-early 2025 Earth Mars transfer orbit window?

If no-one disagrees in the next week or so then I think we should get a mod to clarify the claim as DP suggests.

@ChristopherRandles myself and Zaphod are the major 'No' holders. I would hope a mod consults us rather than you a 'yes' holder. You can always open a later date or add the window caveat to a question you open. New Glenn will not be ready by end of august nor in time for ESCAPADE.

@AlexLf7a4 I would hope that a mod would listen to both sides of the argument and impartially decide who has the best case.

The main part of the question says "used for the ESCAPADE mission as planned" the part the no holders are relying on "(ie. be ready to launch by August 2024)" is in brackets.
In the description the launch window is ambiguous, is it the launch window from Earth to Earth orbit or is it the Mars transfer orbit window? The "(even if it launches a couple weeks late)" indicates it does not have to be within original August Earth launch planned window. Again it is in brackets so I don't think we should take the two week period as definitive. The intent is outside brackets while inside brackets seems like it is more aimed at adding extra context which in this case has instead added confusion. With such contradictions, dropping the confusing parts in brackets makes more sense.

You are welcome to put forward arguments why you think your interpretation is more justified.

Just saying 'consult us not them' does not seem impartial way of settling it to me.

"a couple weeks late" seems surprisingly short. I think the Mars transfer window runs approx Oct 2024 to Jan 2025. Currently planning to stay in various Earth orbits until the mars transfer window opens. Perhaps these plans could change as they were asked to be as flexible as possible. So I would guess launch could possibly be as late as Dec 2024 or even into Jan 2025 without significant delay to mission science work starting. ("start their one-year science mission in April 2026" seems quite some time after arrival to Mars orbit.)

So can you confirm whether a Dec 2024 launch with science work not delayed by more than 6 months would resolve yes or no?

If above resolves yes, what about a Jan 2025 launch? (given you said 2024 launch window.)

@ChristopherRandles Apparently the targeted launch window is August 6-15th but that that window is "approximate and provisional". Not sure just how 'approximate' it is but perhaps would still be worth clarifying in the question exactly what's counted as the "2024 launch window".

Source: https://twitter.com/RobLillis/status/1645896072290787328

@YaakovSaxon Maybe inactive: one bet 26 days ago then nothing until 4 months ago.

I wonder if the traders can agree here on a sensible interpretation and have that taken into account by whoever resolves this?

Again pinging @YaakovSaxon

It seems they are still occasionally active, would be nice to have clarification on this

bought Ṁ25 NO

Blue origin has been claiming august launch. If you don't believe you can always sell.

@AlexLf7a4 Rob Lillis, the Principal Investigator for EscaPADE, has stated that different trajectories are still being considered to potentially allow New Glenn to launch later in the same launch window (i.e. after August) - Chris and I's question is whether such a launch would count under the definition given in the title and description of this question, as different elements of the question are arguably contradictory in this case:
Eg "This question resolves YES if the New Glenn rocket is used to launch the ESCAPADE mission during the 2024 launch window" would imply that a launch in say October would resolve YES
However "(i.e. be ready to launch by August 2024)" would imply that an October launch would resolve NO
As a result we're uncertain how to bet because we don't know how @YaakovSaxon would resolve it if this happened, hence why we are asking them for clarification.
As it is currently, we're betting not just on the uncertainty of New Glenn's progress but also on the uncertainty of the market's intention which is not ideal

@Nat New Glenn will not be ready by end of august nor in time for ESCAPADE. The point is moot.

@AlexLf7a4 An August launch seems very unlikely, However a Dec 2024 or even Jan 2025 launch might be in time for Escapade, You are ruling that out? How/Why? You sound confident, but your betting record doesn't inspire much confidence.

Moot as in up for debate or as in not having much relevance / little point debating it or ... ?