Tumbles Financial Complex

Plus

Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?7% chance

Basic

If @Tumbles is late to pay back a loan, will Canada enter a recession? (2024)

14%

Tumbles is never late, Canada enters a recession.

77%

Tumbles is never late, Canada does not enter a recession.

1.8%

Tumbles is late, Canada enters a recession.

7%

Tumbles is late, Canada does not enter a recession.

Basic

Will Tumbles succeed in restructuring or bailing out the Tumbles Financial Complex?74% chance

Plus

What will be true of Manifold's "loan" to Tumbles?

46%

Tumbles will not pay any of it off before 2026

32%

Tumbles will have to pay it off in some form, and will be late on a payment before 2026

7%

Manifold will "loan" at least Ṁ1,000,000 more to Tumbles before 2026

12%

Tumbles will lose it all before 2026 (profits between now and 12/31/2025 is < Ṁ-1,400,000)

See 5 more answers

Plus

During which month will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?

3%

January

1.2%

February

0.8%

March

0.7%

April

See 9 more answers

Basic

When Tumbles pays his loans off, will his net worth be greater than his poker losses?

5%

Yes, his net worth will be greater 👑

86%

No, his net poker losses will be greater 💀

9%

Tumbles will not successfully pay off all of his loans (on time) 🪦

Plus

Conditional on who wins the democratic nomination will tumbles ever be late to pay back a loan

0.6%

Biden wins the nomination tumbles is never late

0.3%

Biden wins the nomination tumbles is late

90%

Someone besides Biden wins the nomination tumbles is never late

9%

Someone besides Biden wins tumbles is late

Plus

Depending on the POTUS election winner, will @Tumbles be late to pay back a loan (before EOY)?

3%

Donald Trump wins the election, Tumbles is late on a loan this year

96%

Donald Trump wins the election, Tumbles isn't late on a loan this year

0%

Joe Biden wins the election, Tumbles is late on a loan this year

0.8%

Joe Biden wins the election, Tumbles isn't late on a loan this year

See 2 more answers

Plus

How much debt will @Tumbles have at the end of 2024?

0.1%

Ṁ100,000

0.1%

Ṁ200,000

0.2%

Ṁ300,000

0.6%

Ṁ400,000

See 14 more answers

Plus

Tumbles Financial Complex Interest Rate Forecasting (2024-ish, medium term loans)

60%

APR (linear)

70%

>= 50%

46%

>= 60%

16%

>= 70%

See 1 more answer

Basic

@Tumbles Meme Stock ($TMS)Ṁ363

Basic

Will peer to peer mana loans collateralized in real money equivalents be banned before 2025?9% chance

Plus

Will another unofficial mana financial service/product ran by users be shut down by Manifold by EOY 2026?74% chance

Basic

Will Tumbles bask in the presence of Mira's divine intelligence before 2028?74% chance

Basic

Will Tumbles punch someone before Joe Biden dies?24% chance

Plus

Which of Tumbles, Mira, or Strutheo will go to space first?

6%

Tumbles will be the first to space

25%

Mira will be the first to space

5%

Strutheo will be the first to space

64%

No one goes to space

Basic

Will Tumbles reach Platinum in the Melee ranked ladder before Christmas?20% chance

Was it a mistake by Manifold to give/loan Tumbles 1.4M mana?POLL

Yes

No

Not sure

Plus

@Tumbles Credit Score MarketYES

Fion's Micro-Loans!Ṁ0 bounty

Ṁ0