If @Tumbles is late to pay back a loan, will Canada enter a recession? (2024)
35%
Tumbles is never late, Canada enters a recession.
59%
Tumbles is never late, Canada does not enter a recession.
3%
Tumbles is late, Canada enters a recession.
3%
Tumbles is late, Canada does not enter a recession.

@Tumbles is Canadian.

The recession part resolves YES if the C.D. Howe Institute's Business Cycle Council declares that a recession happened during 2024. They have until 2026 to do so.

The part about Tumbles' financial status resolves based on this market. If that market resolves NO and a similar market replaces it, the replacement will also be considered.

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Tumbles ♠︎boughtṀ50Tumbles is never lat... YES

@Pykess I don't know what to tell you! I don't understand why so many accounts have been betting against me on all my markets. I've tried to be as responsive and transparent in answering questions and communicating with traders 😅 At this point if you bet that I won't pay back my loans, don't blame me when you lose!

@Tumbles oh I'm definitely gonna blame you, considering it will literally by definition be your fault!

But also I suspect it has something to do with

1) You surpassing the M750k debt mark, despite you yourself betting pretty heavily NO on that

2) Your weekly profit being -M100k

tumbles as long as you don't get that report out people will be fooled LOL

@Bayesian uh oh.

@Pykess basically a large part of that isn't real because it was part of a negotiation where he got donated 64k mana. so it appears like -100k but really it's (at most) -36k

@Bayesian I'm making the report, and I think I'm going to look ok! My financials aren't as bad as they look. If Biden is the nomination I'm literally rich, so the fact that my debt markets keep spiking above 20% really makes it seem like these deleted users are not betting rationally

@Bayesian OH I get what you mean lmao. You mean they will continue being fooled by my low profit until the report clues them in.

Possibly true! But I mean I've already explained the whalebait situation in the comments of the Credit Score market before :P I think the deleted accounts are just doing a meme

I think the deleted accounts are run by a bad predictor that got ruined but still wants to make bets, and so creates new accounts and is like "oh this is a great betting opportunity, ill get all my alts to bet YES here and have lots of rich alts". so i think clarifying that you're doing decently would plausibly make them stop immediately. not sure though

@Tumbles "if Biden is the nomination"

welp, I'm boned

@Tumbles I thought this was going to be about you still, but it's literally just about if the US enters a recession 😂

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