During which month will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?
27%
January
7%
February
1.3%
March
1.4%
April
1.4%
May
1.2%
June
0.6%
July
0.7%
August
0.6%
September
0.7%
October
0.8%
November
0.5%
December
57%
all loans paid back on time

Resolves to "all loans paid back on time" if Tumbles does not owe anybody any mana. You can see how much mana Tumbles currently owes here:
/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba

If Tumbles is late to pay off a loan he accepted before he is debt free, this market resolves to the month during which it occurred. Note that each monthly option does not specify a particular year.

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bought Ṁ2 December YES

I note that the 1.4 million mana loan recently received from Manifold is not listed on your ledger in the "will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan" market, possibly because it has no due date, or possibly because it was sent to you unprompted rather than intentionally accepted. Does it count for the resolution of this market, or could you potentially use it to pay off all your other debts and then resolve this "all loans paid back on time"?

o7

I am confused why July is so high. There are currently no loans due in July...?

Tumbles has to pay 1k of daily fees

Ah, I misunderstood the "I told my creditors the daily fee loans would count as late at the end of August.", thought the fees were paused.

Myron you are corrected, I don’t pay those daily fees until I pay off the loan. Something weird would have to happen for this to resolve to July

bought Ṁ100 July NO

i'll bet down july a bit but if biden suddenly drops out, my guess was that there's at least ~some small chance that you basically declare bankruptcy early, and you don't actually wait until the first true date when payment is owed? but maybe that wouldn't count for this market

bought Ṁ30 January YES

lol clearly I haven't learned my lesson

bought Ṁ1 April YES

why is june so high? like 1% of the total is due in june

bought Ṁ250 all loans paid back ... YES

@DylanSlagh I think Certainty of Victory bid it up because that's when their loan is due

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