Hey @Robincvgr @bagelfan @kbot @evan @4fa I've decided to up my risk tolerance a little, and y'all had excellent track records, would y'all like me to add a couple extra hundred mana to your current loans and push the deadline back a fortnight?

@TheAllMemeingEye Sounds like a plan

@evan it be doed

@4fa hey, just to clarify, is the like an agreement to the deal or just a broad non binding signal of support?

@TheAllMemeingEye The latter with a bit of "I'll get back to you about this", which I do now. 😃 Does that mean you would lend me another 200 mana now and I owe you a total of 312 mana due on May 31st? 🤔 If so, I'm in!

(I was tempted to just like your last post, too, for maximum confusion, but I was able to resist. 😅)

@4fa

Does that mean you would lend me another 200 mana now and I owe you a total of 312 mana due on May 31st? 🤔 If so, I'm in!

Yeah, sounds like we got a deal :)

(I was tempted to just like your last post, too, for maximum confusion, but I was able to resist. 😅)

Vive le resistance 🫡

@4fa ona li pini

@TheAllMemeingEye My toki pona is not as good as my Lang Belta, but I guess I can infer what it means. 😁 Thanks!

@4fa https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belter_Creole

While developing the language, he had modeled it as a creole based on English, with influence from other languages from all around the world, including Romance languages [...], Germanic languages [...], Slavic languages [...]

Bah, sounds easy, just English with simplified spelling/grammar and a few loan words from popular langua-

Article 1 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights in Belter Creole:

Kowl mang fong beref im im ferí unte eka [...]. Imalowda pensa unte sensa we gut unte we mal. Unte im mogut fo manting du wit sif asilik beratna unte sésata.

Wha- what? This is based on English? The Expanse must be millennia in the future lol

@TheAllMemeingEye Hm, let's try.
"Kowl", based on Hebrew "kol", meaning "all".
"Mang", based on "man", now "human".
"Fong", based on German "von", meaning "of".
I've read "beref" before, but I forget what it means…
"Unte", based on German "und", meaning both "and" and sometimes "with", iirc.
"Imalowda", based on "him" and "a lot of", meaning "they".
"Pensa", based on Romance languages, meaning "think".
"Gut", based on German "gut" and possible English "good", meaning "good".
"Mogut", "more good", i. e. "better".
"Fo" = "for".
"Man ting", based on "man" and "thing", meaning "humankind".
du = do, wit = with, sif = self, beratna = brother, sésata = sister…

The last sentence is probably something like: "And it is better for mankind to treat each other like brothers and sisters."

@4fa Oh, duh, just remembered: "fong beref" is probably "from birth"… (I mean, of course it helps that I know the English version of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.)
Next we have "im im", which is (both plural and singular) "they", but here it stands in for the verb "to be".
Next, "ferí" is "free" and "eka" is apparently "equal"…

@4fa Personally, I find it one of the most "fun to speak" constructed languages. Memrise has a phrasebook with some great sentences like "Dude, where's my ship?". https://community-courses.memrise.com/community/course/1476694/lang-belta-belter-creole-phrasebook/

@4fa so would a literal translation of the passage be?:

All men from birth him-him free and equal. Him-a-load-a think and feel we good and we bad. And him more good for mankind do with self as-like brother and sister.

@TheAllMemeingEye I think the equivalent toki pona literal translation would be something like:

Person all be create of container no of group same. They be have to think to feel. They be good context, they be work of person good to they.

@TheAllMemeingEye Pretty much! EN "us/we" would be LB "milowda", so LB "we" has to be something else – I know it as EN "way/manner", but I don't know how that would fit.
And with "im" the question is how literal/etymological you want to be.

@TheAllMemeingEye yes, sounds good!

@Robincvgr cha-ching cha-chungus 🐇 💰

Hi I would like to apply for 150M loan at 3.3...% (155)

@copiumarc hi :) looking at your profit history, it seems you made several large losses throughout 2024, but in 2025 have managed to rapidly claw back to the positives. Could you explain the cause of the improvement, and can I be confident that things won't return to how they were?

@TheAllMemeingEye Hi! Not interested in a loan anymore atm bc I wanted to flip it on Canada elections for like 160, but I will explain later for future reference:

I actually only had 2 big losses in 2024, which were Biden resignation and 2024 US election. I think for the Biden resignation market I was wrong (although even with my wrong assessment of the situation, if I had traded smarter w/ limit orders betting on the market flipping again, I still would've made profit), and on the 2024 election things just didn't go my way. I think this is an important distinction to make, bc if you buy a coinflip market at 25% and lose, you didn't make the wrong decision..

I didn't really change how I assess things that much. Except for betting more pessimistically (e.g. made a lot of mana by betting on no Liberal majority in Canada), but I think I would've done that even if I predicted a Trump 2024 win since Trump is in the whitehouse. Did get smarter at using limit orders and apportioning my bets though. In any case I have a lot of mana locked up in interest markets, so even if I did go massively negative one month I'm confident I could replay you as long as the loan amount is 1k-

@copiumarc would you consider committing to a minimum level of investment diversification by not having more than, say, a fifth of your net worth invested in any one single event outcome at a time? Note that spreading bets across multiple markets that all depend on the same outcome is pretty much equally vulnerable to having it all in one unless you're arbitraging.

@TheAllMemeingEye I don't know if I can commit to a fifth, because recently I exceeded that when it became very clear to me that Liberal Minority (Canadian election) was a fast-resolving interest market basically. I can commit to having at least 4k mana in interest markets that I could easily liquidate, so that there is complete confidence the loan can be repaid.

@copiumarc thanks for explaining 👍 let me know if you decide you might want a loan again

I'd be interested in learning what loans I would qualify for. However, any loan less than Ṁ1,000 isn't worth getting out of bed for (for me).

I will sometimes bet to a near-Ṁ0 balance if I see a surefire bet, but I like to have some reserves in the tank in case I see another opportunity arise. I like to "keep the shotgun loaded," metaphorically speaking, and that's when I would imagine myself seeking a loan.

There is a play I want to make at the end of the month for leagues, and I'm soft-looking for a loan in anticipation of it, but I'm not hungry for it... yet.

@Quroe 🦝RISK is a new manifold company that I work for and we are developing an algorithm to determine credit scores for manifold users, as well as an insurance fee calculator. I'll attach a screenshot. Now mind you, this product is in the Alpha Testing phase, so the numbers may not line up quite right with your expectations. 🦝RISK is loan insurance. So the borrower pays us the fee and if the borrower defaults, we pay the lender for their coverage option (in the screenshot, we see 50% of the loan is covered by 🦝RISK). This product will release late April/early May...so very soon!

P.S. We use current balance as a strong indicator of credit score. So users with lots of money invested while having little in their balance are considered less safe to loan to and therefore their rates are higher.

@crowlsyong This seems vulnerable to manipulation. For example, suppose that A lends 1000 mana to B, and B lends 1000 mana to A. Both buy insurance, and then both deliberately default.

In the real world, there would be real legal consequences. With mana, you're out of luck.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 We have systems in place to track and penalize fraud. This kind of thing is indeed an issue, but there are solutions. Since all 🦝RISK transactions are logged, we can use user history as a variable in the credit score calculation. In the worst case, fraud may result in blacklisted accounts.

Edit: in addition, fees for low credit users can exceed 100%, so even if they attempt to play the system, they will ultimately loose mana and we will stay solvent.

@Quroe you have a pretty good profit record recently, though I can't help but notice that for the first half of 2024 your profits were oscillating in the low negatives. What was the cause of this, and can I be confident you won't return to that strategy?

@TheAllMemeingEye That was when I was new to prediction markets, the time I would yeet arbitrary amounts of mana into markets and not think about the impact my trades made on the odds.

I learned how to calibrate my worldview and not overextend on trades since then, and the start of my upward trend in my profit was about the time I learned how to arbitrage too.

I learned the value of a dollar mana. I try to be frugal with my trades. Most all of my positions with greater than 1,000 mana sunk into them are either covered by arbitrage or are surefire in my eyes and backed by research.

———

There is a notable position here that should pay out on the first of next month where I sunk 42k mana against alien contact. About 7k mana is daily-loaned to me across all sub-markets there, so I should get a sizable chunk of mana back in my balance upon resolution, signaling added security in your potential loan to me.

The reason I'm seeking a loan is for my preparation for the monthly league prizes. The linked market might not resolve before the league ends. I need a respectable balance for what I plan. I can send you a quote-unquote "prospectus" of my strategy in a private DM on the good faith promise that you won't steal my strategy if you'd like me to divulge further and make the argument for why your loan is in safe hands.

@Quroe thanks for explaining 👍

In general it seems you are very likely to have the ability to pay back, and you also have a solid history of being a very friendly and helpful user in general, so I think the competition bounded interest rate of 4% would easily apply.

Recently other users have repeatedly encouraged me to have higher risk tolerance, and logically I agree with them even though I have a strong emotional aversion.

I think the absolute most I could bring myself to offer as a first time loan without getting too distressed would be 500 mana, though ideally I would feel more comfortable closer to 250 mana. I know this is less than you indicated you wanted, and it is probably a flaw of mine that I should overcome, but panicky alarm bells start going off in my head when playing around with larger numbers than that without mathematical certainty of safety or diversification across numerous independent investments.

@TheAllMemeingEye Understood. Wanna work with Ṁ500 loaned now, and Ṁ520 paid back in a month?

If you want to do Ṁ500 loaned now, Ṁ515 paid back in a week as an alternative option, I can also work with that.

I only need the mana ultra short term to float me over until league resolution to keep my solvency until markets resolve when the month rolls over.

I explored if a C_50 RISK insurance plan could justify a Ṁ1000 loan, but I am not convinced I can arbitrage the RISK fee profitably against the profit delta the extra funding would enable. I could entertain a RISK insurance plan if I want/need to pull another loan a-la-carte due to a zero'd balance from trades I make before league resolution.

I would again like to highlight my expected payouts at the start of the month to justify that I am a low risk, and perhaps I could justify a lower fee to unlock a larger loan that might not be considered with my raw credit score. ( @crowlsyong would you like to negotiate here or in DMs?) I will link these markets below for ease of exploring my positions. I don't think I have any liabilities that would counter these wins.

My goal of this loan is to defend my league market positions against any last minute attacks that might dethrone me in my league. My goal is that 1st place Platinum League prize payout of Ṁ800.

———

Surefire markets:

/AaronSimansky/what-will-happen-within-donald-trum (Re: my alien market position)

/redcat/will-i-study-for-1-hour-per-day-unt

/redcat/will-i-study-for-2-hours-per-day-un

@Quroe

Wanna work with Ṁ500 loaned now, and Ṁ520 paid back in a month?

Yeah, that works, I'll send it over 👍

@Quroe it is done

@TheAllMemeingEye Victory has been secured.

Your loan fulfilled its purpose of threatening my capability to defend my positions. Nobody seemed to make last minute moves to attack the positions I held.

I have paid the piper. Pleasure doing business. 🤝

@TheAllMemeingEye Also, we're now on the same league division this month.

I'll see you on the battlefield. 😎

@Quroe thank you for the early in-full payment :)

Pleasure doing business

This should be the motto of a sex worker agency haha

Also, we're now on the same league division this month.

I'll see you on the battlefield. 😎

Ah sheet, I'm screwed lol

@TheAllMemeingEye

This should be the motto of a sex worker agency haha

Put a comma after "pleasure," and you're on to something.