Welcome to The All Memeing Bank!
I am currently in the situation of having more balance than I can find good trading opportunities to bet it in. Therefore, I am in search of users on this site who are in the opposite situation of wanting to take on loans because they find more good trading opportunities than they have balance to invest in.
If you would like a loan, please leave a comment, and I will hopefully respond within a day or two. Initially, I may only offer much smaller loans than others (e.g. 100 mana) to build up lender trust, but I'm usually willing to take a lower interest rate, and the loan size offered may significantly increase as trust improves.
I will use this description as a publicly visible ledger of all past and active loans. At the end of the year I will use this ledger to determine market resolution.
It's possible I'm making a bunch of rookie mistakes given that I've never academically studied finance and I'm pretty much deducing the principles from off the top of my head and from depictions in fictional media, but this is my current train of thought regarding loan interest rates:
Like haggling for a purchase in a street market, as the lender I want the interest rate to be higher and the borrower wants it to be lower. For there to be a possible deal we hopefully have an overlapping range between the worst deals we are each willing to accept (the lowest interest I'll accept vs the highest interest they'll accept). The default situation for purely self-interested agents would be us both trying to convince the other that our limit is stricter than it actually is within that overlap, but if we have a degree of cooperative altruism then we can agree to be transparent and set it at the midpoint of the overlap.
The lowest interest I should be willing to accept is one that leads to expected profit just above what I would otherwise get (currently zero because it's just sitting in my balance, but possibly much more in the future if demand outpaces supply leading to competition from other borrowers), via the interest in cases where it is paid back more than cancelling out losses in cases where it isn't. The probability of payback can be roughly guessed by long term consistency and rate of positive profit growth, as well as explicit track record of paying back loans, good market resolution honesty ratings, and word of mouth from other trusted users. E.g. if I think there's only 25% probability that Tumbles will be able to pay me back by winning their recent big bets or getting bailed out again then the minimum interest rate should probably be about 300%.
Similarly, the highest interest rate it makes sense for the borrower to accept would also give endpoint profit just above what they would otherwise get (if I have a monopoly then zero, but again possibly much more if there's competition from other lenders), via the expected trading profits more than cancelling out the interest. The expected trading profits growth rate per loaned amount might be possible to estimate from their profit and investment graphs.
Train of thought regarding loan sizes and due dates currently in progress.
Active loans:
Date and time: 2025-06-08 00:06 BST (UTC+1)
Recipient: Spin ( @Spin )
Amount lent: 500 mana
Interest rate: 50%
Amount owed: 750 mana
Due date and time: 7d after whenever both the high and low res bean markets have resolved
Loan insurance policy type: π¦RISK C_100
Loan insurance policy rate: 17%
Loan insurance policy fee: 85 manaUnrealised profit: 250 mana
Date and time: 2025-07-09 08:01 BST (UTC+1)
Recipient: Chumchulum ( @Chumchulum )Amount lent: 100 mana
Interest rate: 4%
Amount owed: 104 mana
Due date and time: 1 month, 2025-08-09 08:01 BST (UTC+1)Unrealised profit: 4 mana
Date and time: 2025-07-22 12:39 BST (UTC+1)
Recipient: For Fold's Sake ( @4fa )
Amount lent: 1000 mana
Interest rate: 4%
Amount owed: 1040 mana
Due date and time: 1 month, 2025-08-22 12:39 BST (UTC+1)
Unrealised profit: 40 mana
Past loans:
Date and time: 2025-04-19 13:06 BST (UTC+1)
Recipient: crowlsyong ( @crowlsyong )
Amount lent: 200 mana
Interest rate: 5%
Amount owed: 210 mana
Due date and time: 1 month, 2025-05-19 13:06 BST (UTC+1)Payback date and time: 2025-04-23 21:43 BST (UTC+1)
Profit: 10 mana
Date and time: 2025-04-30 08:08 BST (UTC+1)
Recipient: Anonymous ( @100Anonymous )
Amount lent: 250 mana
Interest rate: 20%
Amount owed: 300 mana
Due date and time: 1 month, 2025-05-30 08:08 BST (UTC+1)Loan cancellation partial payback date and time: 2025-04-30 08:16 BST (UTC+1)
Loan cancellation partial payback amount: 275 mana
Profit: 25 mana
Date and time: 2025-04-30 06:00 BST (UTC+1)
Recipient: Quroe ( @Quroe )
Amount lent: 500 mana
Interest rate: 4%
Amount owed: 520 mana
Due date and time: 1 month, 2025-05-30 06:00 BST (UTC+1)Payback date and time: 2025-05-01 17:01 BST (UTC+1)
Profit: 20 mana
Date and time: 2025-04-28 22:12 BST (UTC+1)
Recipient: musuko384 ( @musuko384 )
Amount lent: 250 mana
Interest rate: 10%
Amount owed: 275 mana
Due date and time: 1 month, 2025-05-28 22:12 BST (UTC+1)
Payback date and time: 2025-05-01 21:52 BST (UTC+1)Profit: 25 mana
Date and time: 2025-04-15 17:10 BST (UTC+1)
Recipient: kbot ( @kbot )
Amount lent: 100 mana
Interest rate: 4%
Amount owed: 104 mana
Due date and time: 1 month, 2025-05-15 17:10 BST (UTC+1)Payback date and time: 2025-05-15 00:20 BST (UTC+1)
Profit: 4 mana
Date and time: 2025-04-15 15:43 BST (UTC+1)
Recipient: bagelfan ( @bagelfan )
Amount lent: 150 mana
Interest rate: 3%
Amount owed: 154.5 β 155 mana
Due date and time: 1 month, 2025-05-15 15:43 BST (UTC+1)Payback date and time: 2025-05-15 20:11 BST (UTC+1)
Lateness: 4h 28mProfit: 5 mana
Initial date and time: 2025-04-16 14:08 BST (UTC+1)
Recipient: Evan ( @evan )
Initial amount lent: 100 mana
Interest rate: 4%
Initial amount owed: 104 mana
Initial due date and time: 1 month, 2025-05-16 14:08 BST (UTC+1)Revision date and time: 2025-04-30 06:37 BST (UTC+1)
Revised amount lent: 300 mana
Revised amount owed: 312 mana
Revised due date and time: 1 month 2 weeks, 2025-05-30 14:08 BST (UTC+1)
Payback date and time: 2025-05-19 09:08 BST (UTC+1)
Volunteer payee: Anonymous ( @100Anonymous )
Profit: 12 mana
Initial date and time: 2025-04-14 17:00 BST (UTC+1)
Recipient: Robin ( @Robincvgr )
Initial amount lent: 100 mana
Interest rate: 3%
Initial amount owed: 103 mana
Initial due date and time: 1 month, 2025-05-14 17:00 BST (UTC+1)
Revision date and time: 2025-05-01 00:34 BST (UTC+1)Revised amount lent: 300 mana
Revised amount owed: 309 mana
Revised due date and time: 1 month 2 weeks, 2025-05-28 17:00 BST (UTC+1)
Payback date and time: 2025-05-29 02:00 BST (UTC+1)
Lateness: 9hProfit: 9 mana
Initial date and time: 2025-04-17 13:35 BST (UTC+1)
Recipient: For Fold's Sake ( @4fa )
Initial amount lent: 100 mana
Interest rate: 4%
Initial amount owed: 104 mana
Initial due date and time: 1 month, 2025-05-17 13:35 BST (UTC+1)
Revision date and time: 2025-04-30 09:28 BST (UTC+1)Revised amount lent: 300 mana
Revised amount owed: 312 mana
Revised due date and time: 1 month 2 weeks, 2025-05-31 13:35 BST (UTC+1)
Payback date and time: 2025-05-29 10:52 BST (UTC+1)Profit: 12 mana
Date and time: 2025-05-29 20:58 BST (UTC+1)
Recipient: Quroe ( @Quroe )
Amount lent: 800 mana
Interest rate: 4%
Amount owed: 832 mana
Due date and time: 1 month, 2025-06-29 20:58 BST (UTC+1)Payback date and time: 2025-06-11 17:40 BST (UTC+1)
Profit: 32 mana
Date and time: 2025-05-30 18:49 BST (UTC+1)
Recipient: For Fold's Sake ( @4fa )
Amount lent: 800 mana
Interest rate: 3%
Amount owed: 824 mana
Due date and time: 1 month, 2025-06-30 18:49 BST (UTC+1)
Payback date and time: 2025-06-27 18:52 BST (UTC+1)
Profit: 24 mana
Total amount loaned so far
= (300 [Robin] + 150 [bagelfan] + 100 [kbot] + 300 [Evan] + 300 [For Fold's Sake] + 200 [crowlsyong] + 250 [musuko384] + 500 [Quroe] + 250 [Anonymous] + 800 [Quroe] + 800 [For Fold's Sake] + 500 [Spin]) mana
= 4450 mana
Total realised profit so far
= (9 [Robin] + 5 [bagelfan] + 4 [kbot] + 12 [Evan] + 12 [For Fold's Sake] + 10 [crowlsyong] + 25 [musuko384] + 20 [Quroe] + 25 [Anonymous] + 32 [Quroe] + 24 [For Fold's Sake]) mana
= 178 mana
Total profit so far including unrealised profit
= (178 + 250 [Spin] + 4 [Chumchulum] + 40 [For Fold's Sake]) mana
= 472 mana
1,000People are also trading
@TheAllMemeingEye RISK says I'm super safe again, so I'm looking for an 800 mana loan to be due September 1 at 5% interest.
@evan Wow, I guess this is a case where my personal estimate of payback differs so highly from the credit score that I could probably make a lot if I get an insurance plan, will ask crowlsyong and get back to you
My long-term profit record is admittedly not great, but I've recently overhauled how I approach betting, and my performance over the last couple of months reflects that (#2 silver for May, #1 gold for June, #4 platinum currently) . Even before that, my record is more due to a few really awful mistakes (that I'm getting to be much more cautious about), rather than consistently bad bets (though I did have a bad habit of putting too much mana on the less-likely option to chase a big payday).
I'd really like to work my way up to more substantial loans, but I'm happy to start out with a small loan with a big interest rate. Would you accept 100M now, returned with 7% interest after just two weeks?
I'd prefer to start with short terms to build trust more quickly.
@SimonWestlake Hi, apologies for huge delay
Can you promise you'll not bet more than 10% of your net worth on any single event outcome?
@Chumchulum Apologies for the late response.
Although I did add several of the options, I unfortunately can't take credit for creating the conspiracy market lol (assuming you're referring to /JamesF/what-conspiracy-theories-will-be-pr ).
You've only been around a short while, but have decent growth, so 4% interest on 100M for a month sounds good :)
@Quroe you have a very impressive profit growth, net worth, and all-round reputation for being a great guy, not to mention you trusting me with that 20k dummy loan the other day :)
Though you've bet a lot on the beans market, you would still have plenty to pay me back even if you lose.
Really the main limiting factor on loan size here is my general phobia of investing too much in any one place no matter how trustworthy.
Would 500 mana at 4% interest due in a month be ok?
@TheAllMemeingEye To confirm, this is αΉ500 to me today, 1.04x back (αΉ540 back) a month from now?
@Quroe I'm an idiot, just realised you already took out AND paid back pretty much this exact loan already about a month ago π€¦
Arguably you therefore qualify for even more, maybe 800?
1.04 * 800 = 832
If it helps ease your fears, I am using a bean counting method endorsed by a former NASA engineer, and my trades reflect it.
Date and time: 2025-05-29 20:58 BST (UTC+1)
Recipient: Quroe ( @Quroe )
Amount lent: 800 mana
Interest rate: 4%
Amount owed: 832 mana
Due date and time: 1 month, 2025-06-29 20:58 BST (UTC+1)
This loan is no longer active. It is repaid!