Loans are assumed late after their due date at 11:59:59pm PST has passed.
Refer to this for the loan ledger: /Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba
All market answers are relative to @Tumbles experiences. @Tumbles may choose not to answer any unprovable market answers if he wishes to.
We'll do our best to ensure these get resolved in ways that make the most sense. Expect some potential clerical challenges. Don't expect this market to be taken too seriously.
Add your own! We may N/A them at will. Be ready to accept responsibility of tracking it if you add it. Lack of resolution is not evidence that it hasn't happened yet -- asking for clarifications is encouraged. Markets added that have already achieved their YES state upon entry will resolve (or, if able, be changed to upon discovery) N/A.
Update 2025-06-10 (PST) (Creator approved AI summary of creator comment): * Once the loan ledger for @Tumbles shows 0 loans:
All market answers that have not already met their conditions to resolve YES will resolve NO.
New loans taken by @Tumbles after this point (when the ledger first showed 0 loans) will not count towards this market.
Update 2025-06-10 (PST) (Creator approved AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'Tumbles-related prediction markets':
This answer will be resolved N/A due to ambiguity if user @KJW_01294 does not clarify its intended meaning in the context of this market (specifically, as a time unit) within 7 days of the creator's linked comment requesting clarification.
1,000People are also trading
@jcb I would certainly say it was created, but I think we should also ask if that is what this market is counting in the first place, now that I think about it. What even is a time unit of a "Tumbles-related prediction market"? @KJW_01294, was this the intent? If no response is given in the next 7 days, I will N/A it for ambiguity.
@121 Correct. When the ledger reaches 0 loans, the remainder of market answers will resolve NO after they are confirmed to be correct to the best of our abilities.
If Tumbles takes on new loans after a moment in time where no loans remain on the books, those don't count.
@KJW_01294 Does this very page count as the 1st? Does each new added market answer on this market count?
@jcb Feel free to ping me when this event triggers. I don't stay on top of this metric on my own accord.
@jcb I suppose anybody can call it out and say it's ready to resolve. Collective responsibility, and all that. Thanks for the clarification, too.
@jcb Alright! The count is at 1 for any loans that are past due as of today, up to the ones due on June 9th. It will not count for loans that are not yet due.
Edit: correction made