Will @Tumbles be more than 24 ___ late to pay back a loan?
17
375Ṁ2481
9999
99%
Days
88%
Weeks
83%
Fortnights
70%
Months
66%
Tumbles-related prediction markets (will be N/A'd of no clarification is given by Jun 18, 2025.)
57%
Years
52%
Asses eaten (since market creation. Tumbles calls the shots on how this one is operationalized.)
50%
New loans taken (since this market's creation, only counts loans created while a loan is due)
40%
U.S. Presidents (Trump's 2nd term is 1st)
35%
Decades
34%
U.S. National Elections (2024's is 0th, national midterms count)
34%
Canadian National Elections (2025's is 0th)
24%
OpenAI models released to the public
24%
Manifests (2025's is 1st)
Resolved
YES
Hours

Loans are assumed late after their due date at 11:59:59pm PST has passed.

Refer to this for the loan ledger: /Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba

All market answers are relative to @Tumbles experiences. @Tumbles may choose not to answer any unprovable market answers if he wishes to.

We'll do our best to ensure these get resolved in ways that make the most sense. Expect some potential clerical challenges. Don't expect this market to be taken too seriously.

Add your own! We may N/A them at will. Be ready to accept responsibility of tracking it if you add it. Lack of resolution is not evidence that it hasn't happened yet -- asking for clarifications is encouraged. Markets added that have already achieved their YES state upon entry will resolve (or, if able, be changed to upon discovery) N/A.

  • Update 2025-06-10 (PST) (Creator approved AI summary of creator comment): * Once the loan ledger for @Tumbles shows 0 loans:

    • All market answers that have not already met their conditions to resolve YES will resolve NO.

    • New loans taken by @Tumbles after this point (when the ledger first showed 0 loans) will not count towards this market.

  • Update 2025-06-10 (PST) (Creator approved AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'Tumbles-related prediction markets':

    • This answer will be resolved N/A due to ambiguity if user @KJW_01294 does not clarify its intended meaning in the context of this market (specifically, as a time unit) within 7 days of the creator's linked comment requesting clarification.

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At time of market creation, this is the lineup.

I did have Tumbles's consent to add this when I made the market.

Created Jun 10, 2025, 11:52:51 AM EST

/Simon74fe/tumbles-claims-market

Created Jun 9, 2025, 8:08:38 PM EST

/robert/will-at-least-10k-be-paid-for-tumbl

@Quroe The latter market has already been resolved N/A, is it included in the count?

@jcb I would certainly say it was created, but I think we should also ask if that is what this market is counting in the first place, now that I think about it. What even is a time unit of a "Tumbles-related prediction market"? @KJW_01294, was this the intent? If no response is given in the next 7 days, I will N/A it for ambiguity.

I assume all answers resolve no after @Tumbles has 0 late loans?

@121 Correct. When the ledger reaches 0 loans, the remainder of market answers will resolve NO after they are confirmed to be correct to the best of our abilities.

If Tumbles takes on new loans after a moment in time where no loans remain on the books, those don't count.

@KJW_01294 Does this very page count as the 1st? Does each new added market answer on this market count?

@jcb Feel free to ping me when this event triggers. I don't stay on top of this metric on my own accord.

oh no, what have I gotten myself into 😭

I just edited "model releases" -> "models release to the public" as a slight clarification:

  • release means publicly accessible; can be restricted to paid users

  • multiple models launched at the same time count as separate releases

@jcb I suppose anybody can call it out and say it's ready to resolve. Collective responsibility, and all that. Thanks for the clarification, too.

I think this is at 1 with o3-pro

@jcb Was it released on June 9th or later?

@jcb Alright! The count is at 1 for any loans that are past due as of today, up to the ones due on June 9th. It will not count for loans that are not yet due.

Edit: correction made

At time of market creation, this is the lineup.

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