Will @Tumbles be more than 24 ___ late to pay back a loan?
7
350Ṁ618
9999
99%
Days
99%
Hours
90%
Weeks
76%
Fortnights
55%
Months
52%
Asses eaten (since market creation)
50%
Decades
50%
U.S. Presidents (Trump's 2nd term is 1st)
50%
New loans taken (since this market's creation)
34%
Years
34%
Manifests (2025's is 1st)
34%
U.S. Elections (2024's is 0th, national midterms count)
34%
Canadian Elections (2025's is 0th)
24%
OpenAI models released to the public

All loans are assumed late after their due date at 11:59:59pm PST.

Refer to this for the loan ledger: /Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba

All market answers are relative to @Tumbles experiences. @Tumbles may choose not to answer any unprovable market answers if he wishes to.

We'll do our best to ensure these get resolved in ways that make the most sense. Expect some potential clerical challenges. Don't expect this market to be taken too seriously.

Add your own! We may N/A them at will. Be ready to accept responsibility of tracking it if you add it.

Tumbles Financial Complex
Loans
Debtors Guild
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Sort by:

At time of market creation, this is the lineup.

View original context

@jcb Feel free to ping me when this event triggers. I don't stay on top of this metric on my own accord.

oh no, what have I gotten myself into 😭

I just edited "model releases" -> "models release to the public" as a slight clarification:

  • release means publicly accessible; can be restricted to paid users

  • multiple models launched at the same time count as separate releases

@jcb I suppose anybody can call it out and say it's ready to resolve. Collective responsibility, and all that. Thanks for the clarification, too.

At time of market creation, this is the lineup.

People are also trading

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy