Will Tumbles DOUBLE YOUR MANA?

__________________________________________________________________
Tumbles is currently offering to DOUBLE YOUR MANA:
Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan? | Manifold

This market resolves YES if Tumbles successfully pays back all of the creditors for this scheme on time, by any means.

Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the resolution criteria:
- The market will resolve YES if Tumbles pays double the listed principal amount to every creditor. Payment of any reduced amount (less than double) to any creditor will result in a NO resolution.
- There will be some flexibility on the deadline for payback, modifying the original "on time" requirement.

Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified an exception to the previously stated rule that 'any reduced amount (less than double) paid to any creditor will result in a NO resolution':
- If Tumbles was able and willing to pay a creditor the full double amount as per the market terms,
- but that creditor does not receive the full double amount solely because they refused to accept it (e.g., by forgiving a portion of the debt or insisting on a lesser sum),
- AND this refusal by the creditor was an attempt by them to manipulate a different prediction market (i.e., not this specific "Will Tumbles DOUBLE YOUR MANA?" market),
- then, this market ("Will Tumbles DOUBLE YOUR MANA?") will still resolve to YES, provided Tumbles was otherwise demonstrably able and willing to pay that specific creditor the full double amount.

Update 2025-05-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): It has been clarified how the 'Tumbles successfully pays back' condition, as stated in the original description, can be met:
- The payment to creditors does not need to be executed by Tumbles personally, from his main account, or his alt accounts.
- The creator has confirmed that 'Anyone can pay off the total amount' due. This means if any third party pays the debt on behalf of Tumbles, or even independently, it will count towards satisfying this condition for a YES resolution, assuming all other criteria (e.g., correct amount, all creditors paid) are met.

Update 2025-06-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they will resolve the market to NO and explained their reasoning. See the linked comment for details.

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ2,533
2		Ṁ2,522
3		Ṁ1,069
4		Ṁ193
5		Ṁ145

🏅 Top traders

People are also trading

Related questions