Will Tumbles DOUBLE YOUR MANA?

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Tumbles is currently offering to DOUBLE YOUR MANA:
Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan? | Manifold

This market resolves YES if Tumbles successfully pays back all of the creditors for this scheme on time, by any means.

Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the resolution criteria:
- The market will resolve YES if Tumbles pays double the listed principal amount to every creditor. Payment of any reduced amount (less than double) to any creditor will result in a NO resolution.
- There will be some flexibility on the deadline for payback, modifying the original "on time" requirement.

Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified an exception to the previously stated rule that 'any reduced amount (less than double) paid to any creditor will result in a NO resolution':
- If Tumbles was able and willing to pay a creditor the full double amount as per the market terms,
- but that creditor does not receive the full double amount solely because they refused to accept it (e.g., by forgiving a portion of the debt or insisting on a lesser sum),
- AND this refusal by the creditor was an attempt by them to manipulate a different prediction market (i.e., not this specific "Will Tumbles DOUBLE YOUR MANA?" market),
- then, this market ("Will Tumbles DOUBLE YOUR MANA?") will still resolve to YES, provided Tumbles was otherwise demonstrably able and willing to pay that specific creditor the full double amount.

Tumbles Financial Complex

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bought Ṁ50 YES

@TimothyJohnson5c16 So if Tumbles pays off at a lower rate and doesn't double this resolves no?

@HillaryClinton Hmmm, good question. I was originally planning to match the main market for whether Tumbles pays back all of his loans, but I hadn't considered the possibility of the terms being renegotiated.

To me it makes the most sense to stick with the literal meaning of doubling. So I'll be a bit flexible on the deadline for payback, but not on the amount. This will resolve NO if any of the amounts are reduced.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 So if just one creditor voluntarily reduces the amount Tumbles owes them this resolves NO? Even if everybody else that sticks to the offer gets to double their mana?

@Simon74fe Yes, I think that's the most literal interpretation of this question.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 But then this market would have probably also resolved NO even if Tumbles was very liquid. Because somebody could have just forgiven Tumbles a very small amount of their debt, bought NO shares here, and make a good profit

@Simon74fe it's not a voluntary reduction I'm pretty sure everyone wants to be paid in full.

@Simon74fe Ah, I missed the word "voluntary" in your question, sorry. If Tumbles were able and willing to pay everyone back, but someone refused to try to manipulate another market, I would still resolve this as YES.

That isn't relevant to our current situation though.

I can confidently say I have not hady mana doubled yet.

@BlackCrusade Technically Tumbles has another month to dig himself out of the hole.

Added to the Tumbles Financial Complex dashboard! 💸

bought Ṁ150 NO

people it all went into a bet with a 25% chance of winning

@brod Some people believe Tumbles will get bailed out again if he loses.

/market Is the Tumbles Financial Complex TOO BIG TO FAIL?

Also, people should bet this up to at least 50% before sending more mana to Tumbles.

@brod Also, I think Tumbles was very, very close to just completely quitting the site after one of the previous huge losses. He might just give up instead of trying for another bailout.