Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan before 2026, and if so, when?
27
250Ṁ7100
Dec 31
17%
Tumbles is not late on a loan before 2026
0.3%
April
51%
May
30%
June
0.5%
July
0.5%
August
0.3%
September
0.3%
October
0.3%
November
0.3%
December

resolves according to, according to the main market, the month of "the final day during which payment is not late" of the first loan Tumbles is late on

for example, if tumbles is late on their loan to TimothyJohnson5c16 due July 31st 2025, this market will resolve to July

Manifold
Manifold Users
Tumbles Financial Complex
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
boughtṀ1 YES

@4fa hope it's clear that this is April 2025, i.e. this month, for which @Tumbles has no debts due, so far. But I guess the month still has halfway to go and nothing would surprise me anymore.

Added to the Tumbles Financial Complex dashboard! 💸

People are also trading

Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?
+4% 1d84% chance
During which month will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?
Conditional on who wins the democratic nomination will tumbles ever be late to pay back a loan
What will be true of Manifold's "loan" to Tumbles?
Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan, and will he be more than one year late to pay back a loan?
If @Tumbles is late to pay back a loan, will Canada enter a recession? (2024)
Will Tumbles succeed in restructuring or bailing out the Tumbles Financial Complex?
19% chance
Will I ever be late to pay back a loan?
8% chance
Will Tether collapse before 2026?
6% chance
Tumbles Financial Complex Interest Rate Forecasting (2024-ish, medium term loans)
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules