Resolves to my judgement. If Tumbles pays off his creditors, or re-negotiates all his loans such that he no longer owes mana, that will count. Only counts peer to peer loans (not manifold).
Resolves NO if Tumbles still owes (uncancelled or un-negotiated) loans. This will be extended if Tumbles has negotiated a late payment. If Tumbles gives up on repaying his creditors, resolves NO
I will not bet in this market.
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Does the restructuring need to happen before the close date for the market? Tumbles is taking loans that last until April 2026, so I think that implies this is a NO.
I don't think I saw this market before now somehow! Adding it to the recently cleaned up Tumbles Financial Complex dashboard
Bailing out Tumbles will cause massive inflation of mana since the money will not be taken away from anyone else, and there will be no real value created in the process. Doing so reduces the accuracy of various predictions on the site.