🦝RISK | 📖RIPE | ⛑️POOR | ⚖️LAWS

Quick links: Credit Score app | Insurance Calculator | Payment Portal | IMF

Table of contents

#️⃣What is 🦝RISK?
#️⃣Investors
#️⃣Blog
#️⃣Roadmap
#️⃣Rick the 🦝RISK Raccoon
#️⃣The Fine Print

#️⃣What is 🦝RISK?

We provide insurance plans for P2P loans. Peer-to-peer (P2P) lending has opened up new opportunities for investors, but with every investment comes a degree of risk.
That’s where 🦝RISK comes in.

🦝RISK is Your Partner in P2P Loan Protection. Our company creates financial products designed to safeguard your investments and give lenders the confidence they need to thrive in the P2P lending space. Now, with RISK, you can insure your loans and minimize the impact of borrower defaults.

At 🦝RISK, we’ve developed a solution to provide coverage for P2P loans, ensuring that lenders can protect their investments even in the event of borrower default. Our service gives you the option to select from a range of coverage levels, letting you choose how much of the loan is insured.

We plan to open our services to the greater community in early/mid May of 2025! Early adopters and beta testers are already using our services.

By using 🦝RISK products and services, you agree to The Fine Print at the very bottom of this page.

Insurance Plans

How Does 🦝RISK Work?

Here's An Example: A lender is giving a M1,000 Loan (L=1000) to a Borrower. The lender tells the borrower they have a deal so long as the borrower purchases a 🦝RISK C₅₀ (50% coverage) Loan. The borrower agrees and the Insurance Fee is sent to the 🦝RISK Payment Portal- a bounty market- which stores the mana while the loan is active. If the borrower defaults, our insurance activates and 🦝RISK will pay the lender 50% of the loaned amount (M500).

The next section has some more details on how things are calculated for our example.

How we determine fees

To access this valuable protection, borrowers pay an insurance fee, which is calculated using the formula:

Insurance Fee Calculation

I=(L×P)+(L×C)

where:

• I is the insurance amount

• L is the loan amount

• P is the risk fee (based on the borrower's credit score)

• C is the coverage fee (depending on the selected coverage percentage)

Coverage fee

C₂₅ – 25% of the loan amount covered with a 2% coverage fee
C₅₀ – 50% of the loan amount covered with a 5% coverage fee
C₇₅ – 75% of the loan amount covered with a 11% coverage fee
C₁₀₀ – 100% of the loan amount covered with a 21% coverage fee

In addition to coverage, we factor in the Probability of Risk (P), which is based on the borrower's creditworthiness¹:

Risk fee (approximate)

900–1000    Extremely Safe              ~5%  
800–899     Super Safe                  ~7%  
700–799     Very Safe                   ~11%  
600–699     Safe                        ~15%  
500–599     Moderately Safe             ~25%  
400–499     A Bit Risky                 ~45%  
300–399     Risky                       ~75%  
200–299     Highly Risky                ~110%  
100–199     Extremely Risky             ~150%  
0–99        Outrageously Dangerous      ~200%

In the future we hope to provide this additional service: If the loan is paid back on time and in full, then 🦝RISK provides the Fee Refund accordingly (up to 60% refund)

I_final = 0.6 × I  (if loan repaid on time and in full)

Let's break it down

1. Risk Fee (P):
   The risk fee is determined by the borrower's credit score. For example, a credit score of 699 results in a ~5% risk fee.

2. Coverage Fee (C):
   The coverage fee varies depending on the selected coverage percentage. Here are the coverage fees:

   • C₂₅ (25% coverage): 2% coverage fee

   • C₅₀ (50% coverage): 5% coverage fee

   • C₇₅ (75% coverage): 11% coverage fee

   • C₁₀₀ (100% coverage): 21% coverage fee

3. Insurance Fee (with example numbers):

   • Loan Amount (L): M1000

   • Risk Fee (P): 15% (due to borrower's credit score)

   • Coverage Fee (C₅₀): 5% (for 50% coverage)

Putting it all together

Step 1:
The risk fee is calculated as:
M1000 × 15% = M150 (this is the risk fee).

Step 2:
The total loan amount after applying the risk fee is:
M1000 + M150 = M1150.

Step 3:
The coverage fee for 50% coverage is calculated as:
M1000 × 5% = M50.

Step 4:
The total insurance fee is the sum of the risk fee and coverage fee:
M150 + M50 = M200

Total Fee for Insurance:
In this case, the total insurance fee is M200 for 50% coverage on a M1000 loan.

*Note: the fees may change before launch.

How we calculate 🦝RISK Credit Score

The 🦝RISK credit score mostly looks at three things: how much you have, how well you've done, and how long you've been around. It mixes those together in a careful way. If you're doing better, been around longer, and have more, you get a higher score. there's a tiny extra boost if you're one of the top users in your league. This is core to our business model, which is why we have not to opensource it the algorithm.

What happens if the borrower doesn't pay on time and in full?

If borrower does not pay back the loan on time and in full, then no Fee Refund is given and the insurance plan kicks into action. In our example above, insurance would cover the of the losses up to 50% (C₅₀). If borrower pays 80% on time, insurance will cover the remaining 20% and no fees will be returned. The borrower's 🦝RISK Credit Score¹ will also decline according to the severity of the issue. Lender's scores may also be affected if they consistently give out loans to high risk borrowers. While this does not affect Insurance Fees now, it may in the future.

Why Choose 🦝RISK?

Here’s why 🦝RISK should be your go-to insurance partner for P2P loans:

- Minimize Your Risk: With customizable coverage, you can reduce the financial impact of borrower defaults.
- More Confidence: Borrowers with varying risk levels can access loans, knowing there’s a safety net in place.
- Flexible Protection: Choose the level of coverage that best fits your risk tolerance.
- Easy Access: Our Recovery Insurance Service Kiosk streamlines the process of insuring your loans, making it simple to apply and manage.

Get Started with 🦝RISK Today

Our Early Adopter program is starting soon! We are starting with Coverage Plans for Loans up to 10,000 mana.

Ready to lend smarter? Contact crowlsyong on manifold today or visit our partner, Insured Mana Fund (IMF) for great deals on loans that are insured by 🦝RISK.

Limited Early Adopter spots available, act fast!

#️⃣Investors

Last Updated: 27/04/2025
Risk Representative: @crowlsyong

📊 Overview

We sell stock. You can buy this stock. As a reminder,🦝RISK is a private venture offering products such as the Risk Credit Score app and other digital insurance instruments on Manifold. The investment opportunities we offer are private equity tied directly to business revenue. We may do a stock split in the future- private investors will be notified well in advance.

📦 Valuation & Ownership

Overview
======================
M200,000 - Company Valuation
100,000 - Total Shares
= M2 per Share
======================

Shares ownership
55% - @crowlsyong | 55,000 Shares
20% - Private Shares (held by private investors) | 20,000 Shares
10% - The Board | 10,000 Shares
10% - 📖 RIPE (Research In Prediction Markets- nonprofit) | 10,000 Shares
5% - ⛑️POOR (Philanthropic Organization Offering Relief) | 5,000 Shares

💰 Dividends

• Up to 30% of total fee income is distributed to private investors who own 1% or more of the company.

• Dividends are proportional to ownership.

• Payments are made quarterly, and distribution methods will be announced each quarter.

• Passive revenue, ideal for inflation hedging.

📈 Quarterly Reports

Quarterly earnings reports are published in:

• January

• April

• July

• October

📥 How to Invest

Step 1: Reserve Shares

Confirm your investment intentions with @crowlsyong by sending a direct message.

Step 2: Send Mana

Send funds to the 🦝RISK Payment Portal or @crowlsyong after deal is confirmed.

Step 3: Get Receipt & Record

• You’ll receive a receipt.

• A screenshot will be posted to the /crowlsyong/risk-payment-portal for transparency, eventually.

• Once payment is received, your shares are locked in.
  

🤝 Partnerships & Offers

We’re open to:

• Strategic partnerships

• Bulk investors

• Counter-offers

📨 Contact

Want to be a 🦝 RISK Angel Investor?
Reach out to @crowlsyong to discuss opportunities.
Large investments may result in a board position.
Your input helps shape our direction.

⚠️ Important Notes

• Shares represent private equity and revenue-linked ownership.

• By investing, you agree to the terms in The Fine Print at the very bottom of this page.

#️⃣Blog

Post #4 New Domain!

2/5/2025

We now own https://risk.markets! Yay! You can still visit https://risk.deno.dev.

Have a nice day!

Post #3: Bot Fail

29/4/2025

Lessons from v1

In an experimental attempt to piggyback off the smartest money on Manifold, I built a bot designed to follow the top 20 traders (by profit) as well as Kbot. The core idea was simple: whenever one of these “whales” placed a meaningful bet, the bot would echo that bet—at a scaled-down level, using the square root of the amount placed. The aim was to benefit from their superior signal without copying them so aggressively as to become predictable or distort the market. It didn't work very well.

How It Worked

The architecture centered around a persistent WebSocket connection to Manifold’s global firehose of bets. The bot filtered this stream for large bets from high-performing users and responded with proportional bets of its own. It had logic to detect sells vs buys, ignored micro-bets, and even attempted to mimic the whale’s side (YES or NO) and answerId (for multi-choice).

But as expected, first drafts are rarely right. Here's what went wrong:

v1 Pitfalls and Pain Points

1. Limit Order Blindness

The bot could only see filled bets, not limit orders. This made it fundamentally reactive. Often, whales would place limit YES at 55%, only for it to be filled seconds or minutes later when sentiment changed. By the time the bot reacted, the probability had shifted, and the bot would follow into a worse trade—sometimes the exact one the whale was exiting. This lack of foresight made the bot prone to entering traps instead of mimicking conviction.

2. Firehose Disconnects

Despite handling WebSocket events gracefully, the bot would occasionally lose connection to the bet stream. Worse, in v1, it didn’t always reconnect. This meant periods of silence where the bot missed major movements entirely. Fixing this involved re-architecting the socket connection to auto-retry with exponential backoff.

3. Head-Fake Exploits

Sharp traders quickly noticed the bot’s behavior. Since it blindly followed whale-sized bets, some users would place and cancel or reverse large trades to bait it. Without deeper logic to detect intent or volume spoofing, the bot bought into more than a few head-fakes, losing small but cumulatively costly amounts.

4. Incorrect Sell Logic

The bot was designed to mirror sells by whales—but if a whale bought 100 mana of YES, the bot would buy √100 = 10 mana. Later, when the whale sold their 100 mana, the bot would attempt to sell 100 mana too, which it didn’t own. Most of these sell attempts failed silently. This mismatch wasn't patched until later, when sell volume was tracked relative to the bot’s own prior positions.

5. Naïve Selling Criteria

Finally, the bot had no ability to check its own position or cost basis. It wouldn’t ask, “Is this a good time to exit?” Instead, it would only sell when a whale sold. This follower logic sometimes caused it to exit at a loss—even when it had a chance to take profit earlier. Without memory of its own trades or cost averages, it lacked true strategy.

What’s Next?

The early prototype taught us a lot. Going forward, upgrades will include:

• Watching for new markets to seed limit bets at the edges (e.g., 53% YES, 47% NO). Inspired by @kbot and the amazing blog post.

• Smarter sell triggers (e.g., sell if probability hits 90% or 10%). Also inspired by @kbot.

• Tracking the bot’s own trade history to make better exit decisions.

• Watching for market creation events and seeding early liquidity. Once again, inspired by @kbot.

So, what's it all mean?

Following whales can be profitable—but it’s also a delicate balance between mimicry and understanding why the whale moved. A good follower bot needs timing, memory, and context—not just reflexes.

More improvements are coming. For now, the lesson is clear: in markets, imitation without insight is often punished.

Post #2: New bot

29/04/2025

Introducing the 🦝RISK Recovery Insurance Service Kiosk Bot: A Bold New Strategy for Diversification and Profit Sharing

In the evolving world of prediction markets, where data and intuition converge, it's critical for innovative companies to stay ahead of the curve. Enter 🦝RISK Recovery Insurance Service Kiosk (🦝RISK), our insurance arm that now proudly integrates cutting-edge technology through its nonprofit research division 📖RIPE Research In Prediction Markets (📖RIPE).

Our latest development is a bot, built and fine-tuned by 📖RIPE, designed to track and place strategic bets alongside the top 20 users on the Manifold Markets platform. It’s not just about riding the coattails of the brightest minds in the game—it’s about systematically diversifying risk and ensuring a strong, sustainable profit flow for 🦝RISK, with direct benefits flowing back to our investors.

How It Works

The bot taps into Manifold’s vibrant ecosystem, where users make predictions and place bets on a variety of outcomes. By targeting the 20 most successful and influential users (the “top users”) on the platform, our bot automatically mirrors their betting strategies. Not stopping there, it also follows other bots that operate within this space—tracking, learning, and betting alongside them.

But we don’t just follow the pack. The bot’s strategy is programmed to assess each bet, adjust amounts, and optimize for risk while maintaining a competitive edge. If a bet seems too risky, the bot adjusts, applying strategies based on sophisticated predictions—essentially ensuring that 🦝RISK gets in on the action, no matter what.

Why This Matters

By automating our participation in the prediction market, 📖RIPE is not only generating value but also diversifying the capital strategy for 🦝RISK Recovery Insurance Service Kiosk. This diversification helps safeguard against volatility in other investment sectors, spreading the financial risk and securing long-term growth.

Here’s where the real value lies: Earnings generated by the bot are funneled back into our company, and most importantly, they contribute to our dividend pool for investors. Here's the breakdown:

• 40% of the bot's earnings will go directly into the dividend fund.

• Let’s say our bot generates 10,000 mana in profit. That means 4,000 mana will be allocated to dividends.

• If you’re an investor with a 10% stake in 🦝RISK, you’ll receive 400 mana as part of your dividend payout for the quarter.

But it doesn’t stop there. Investors will also receive dividends from the company’s core insurance operations, allowing them to maximize their return. So, if you're holding onto that 400 mana from the bot, you might also see additional mana from the fees collected through 🦝RISK’s insurance services.

That’s a pretty sweet deal, right? You could make that 400 mana plus some more, creating a diversified income stream—and have a stake in an innovative company. It’s a win-win.

Long-Term Vision

The overarching goal of this strategy is to provide stability and growth for 🦝RISK and our investors. The bot's continued operation ensures that 🦝RISK isn’t reliant on any single market or asset class. Instead, we’re spreading our bets across the prediction markets and evolving as an adaptive, intelligent player.

Think of it this way: we’re not just playing the game; we’re rewriting the rules.

By using this technology and strategy, we’re laying the groundwork for a future in which 🦝RISK becomes synonymous with innovative, AI-driven financial strategies that benefit everyone involved—from our investors to our users.

Post #1: Tumblingnomics

25/04/2025

This has got to be one of the best comments I've come across in my time here. Our first customer, @CryptoNeoLiberalist posted the comment on Tumbles market: /Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba

Bless you, Gigacuking. Bless you.

#️⃣Roadmap - 2025

April 2025

🦝RISK is born!

• April 27–28:

  • ✅ Launch Canada elections insurance discounts for loans to Tumbles, while supplies last.

May 2025

• May 1–15:

  • ✅ Begin work on design structure for company governance (board, nonprofit, investors, etc.).

  • ❌ [Stocks don't work, read more] Launch 10,000 mana stock match program (users contribute 250 mana, and we match it up to 10,000 mana).

  • ✅ Start development of Credit Score Chrome Extension (injects into manifold HTML).

• May 16–31:

  • ✅ Begin work on 📖RIPE Dashboard (Research In Prediction Markets).

June 2025

• June 1–15:

  • Secret project reveal ;)

• June 16–30:

  • ✅ Launch 📖RIPE Dashboard on Manifold.

July 2025

• July 1–15:

  • Begin work on Loan Restructuring and create initial case studies.

  • Begin preparations for Mana-Subscription model for Chrome extension

• July 16–31:

  • Pay dividends to investors

  • Release Q2 earnings reports.

  • Create and launch Discord server.

August 2025

• August 1–15:

  • Finalize 📖RIPE open-source tech on GitHub.

  • Finalize and release Chrome extension

• August 16–31:

  • Finalize Loan Restructuring model and offer the service to users.

  • Hire the first employee to assist with scaling operations, paid with mana.

September 2025

• September 1–15:

  • Start researching feasibility of manifold being Turing completeness and test if it’s possible to run DOOM on it.

• September 16–30:

  • Focus on completing and releasing any final elements of loan restructuring.

October 2025

• October 1–15:

  • ✅ Buy domain: https://risk.markets

  • Continue work on mana Turing completeness project.

• October 16–31:

  • Release Q3 earnings reports.

  • Pay dividends to investors

  • Develop new features and capabilities for Discord server.

November 2025

• November 1–15:

  • Finalize Loan Restructuring model for official release.

• November 16–30:

  • Begin development of Collections agency refinancing and debt restructuring model, where we pay lenders a discount to buy their debt.

December 2025

• December 1–15:

  • Relax

• December 16–31:

  • Prepare quarterly financial reports (Q4) and year-end review.

  • Conduct project review and scaling strategy meeting for Q1 2026.

Meet

#️⃣Rick the RISK Raccoon

and see other memes and fun stuff

Pictured above: Rick protecting his family during a walk at the beach

Our mascot is the just & righteous racoon. Here's his a little bit about the proud procyonidae:

Name: Rick the RISK Raccoon

Concept:

• Raccoons are clever, cautious, and resourceful — just like someone protecting their investments.

• Rick will eventually wear a small insurance agent's vest with a little kiosk badge.

• He’s friendly but serious, always double-checking contracts and holding a tiny clipboard, when we get around to animating that.

Why it works:

• The raccoon represents vigilance- they're known for being careful scavengers.

• "Rick" echoes "RISK," making the mascot instantly tied to the brand name.

• It gives the brand a memorable, slightly playful face without undermining the importance of financial protection.

Here's what people are saying about the raccoon

Pictured above: Rick watching his investment portfolio

Pictured above: Rick giving food to the poor on a snowy winter day

Pictured above: Rick be is a qt pie in diss pictooor

Pictured above: Rick discussing with his pal Kit that I = (C₂₅ × L) + (P × L) can be be packaged into a collateralized debt obligation and then repacked into credit default swap which can be sold as AAA to the highest bidders, but at a very dire cost

Pictured above: Rick brokering a GREAT deal with Tumbles and Joshua

#️⃣The Fine Print

While we aim to secure your funds to the best of our ability, we make no guarantees about anything. Any mana given to 🦝RISK and its affiliates could be lost forever. By using our services, you agree that you have read and understand this.

You must also adhere to Manifold's: Terms • Mana-only Terms • Privacy • Rules