Might be kinda subjective. Will ping traders 48 hours before resolving with a proposed resolution; if uncontroversial, will resolve, if controversial, resolves to poll

if you think there are options that i've missed, please suggest them in the comments. must be mutually exclusive of course

• Update 2025-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided the following clarifications:

  • Regarding the distinction between the answer "Tumbles is gifted massive amounts of mana by other users (not Manifold staff) that he doesn't have to pay back" and a potential answer like "Tumbles reaches agreements with creditors":

  • The "gifted mana" answer applies if Tumbles is sent mana as a gift, which he then uses to pay his debts.

  • A scenario where Tumbles and creditors agree to pay off debts at a significant discount (and Tumbles pays this discounted amount, potentially with his own, non-gifted, resources) would correspond to a different type of resolution (e.g., an answer like "Tumbles reaches agreements..."), not the "gifted mana" answer.

  • Actions performed by Tumbles' cat, Orangey, will count if Orangey is acting on Tumbles' behalf. This includes Orangey receiving gifts for Tumbles, securing discounts for Tumbles, or paying off Tumbles' creditors.

• Update 2025-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding specific answer options:

  • "Still in a P2P loan debt spiral": This refers to Tumbles getting more huge loans to pay off his existing creditors.

  • "Tumbles reaches agreements with creditors": This applies if renegotiating existing debt is the primary reason Tumbles avoids being late. This clarifies that this option is broader than solely an agreement for Tumbles to pay off debts at a significant discount (as exemplified in the 2025-05-06 update), encompassing other forms of renegotiation with existing creditors.

• Update 2025-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer option "Tumbles reaches agreements with the creditors of most of his loans to defer payment, pay with alternative forms of consideration, or otherwise keep them in good standing until 2027":

  • This outcome includes scenarios where such agreements are successfully negotiated by other individuals or entities acting on Tumbles' behalf. This means Tumbles himself does not need to be the direct negotiator for this condition to be met.