Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan before 2027, and if not, what's the main reason he was able to afford them?
11
1kṀ26282027
80%
Tumbles is late to pay back a loan before 2027
11%
Favorable outcome from April 2025 Canadian election betting
0.7%
Favorable outcomes from future betting
2%
Still in a P2P loan debt spiral
0.9%
Tumbles buys enough mana with real money to pay off a large amount of his loans
1.3%
Tumbles reaches agreements with the creditors of most of his loans to defer payment, pay with alternative forms of consideration, or otherwise keep them in good standing until 2027
1.5%
Extraordinary event at the hands of Manifold staff (e.g. something like the 1.4 million "loan")
3%
Might be kinda subjective. Will ping traders 48 hours before resolving with a proposed resolution; if uncontroversial, will resolve, if controversial, resolves to poll
if you think there are options that i've missed, please suggest them in the comments
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