Might be kinda subjective. Will ping traders 48 hours before resolving with a proposed resolution; if uncontroversial, will resolve, if controversial, resolves to poll
if you think there are options that i've missed, please suggest them in the comments. must be mutually exclusive of course
Update 2025-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided the following clarifications:
Regarding the distinction between the answer "Tumbles is gifted massive amounts of mana by other users (not Manifold staff) that he doesn't have to pay back" and a potential answer like "Tumbles reaches agreements with creditors":
The "gifted mana" answer applies if Tumbles is sent mana as a gift, which he then uses to pay his debts.
A scenario where Tumbles and creditors agree to pay off debts at a significant discount (and Tumbles pays this discounted amount, potentially with his own, non-gifted, resources) would correspond to a different type of resolution (e.g., an answer like "Tumbles reaches agreements..."), not the "gifted mana" answer.
Actions performed by Tumbles' cat, Orangey, will count if Orangey is acting on Tumbles' behalf. This includes Orangey receiving gifts for Tumbles, securing discounts for Tumbles, or paying off Tumbles' creditors.
Update 2025-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding specific answer options:
"Still in a P2P loan debt spiral": This refers to Tumbles getting more huge loans to pay off his existing creditors.
"Tumbles reaches agreements with creditors": This applies if renegotiating existing debt is the primary reason Tumbles avoids being late. This clarifies that this option is broader than solely an agreement for Tumbles to pay off debts at a significant discount (as exemplified in the 2025-05-06 update), encompassing other forms of renegotiation with existing creditors.
Update 2025-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer option "Tumbles reaches agreements with the creditors of most of his loans to defer payment, pay with alternative forms of consideration, or otherwise keep them in good standing until 2027":
This outcome includes scenarios where such agreements are successfully negotiated by other individuals or entities acting on Tumbles' behalf. This means Tumbles himself does not need to be the direct negotiator for this condition to be met.
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@Robincvgr I assume this still counts if other people besides Tumbles are successful at negotiating his debt? (For example, the current JUMBLES proposal: https://manifold.markets/cthor/do-you-agree-to-the-jumbles-bailout)
@Robincvgr same question for this, how is it different than "reaches agreements" ? seems to me both could be true?
@deagol i'm thinking "tumbles gets more huge loans to pay off his existing creditors" here
if renegotiating existing debt is most of the reason he's able to avoid being late, that's "reaches agreements"
@Robincvgr got it, i'm thinking it's whether the total 1.85 million debt in the ledger goes up or down.
@Robincvgr can you clarify the distinction(s) between this and the "Tumbles reaches agreements..." answer? Thanks.
Also, his cat @Orangey receiving the gifts/discounts or paying off creditors counts?
@deagol I think something like "Tumbles and creditors agree to pay off debts at a significant discount" counts as the former, and Tumbles being sent a bunch of mana which he in turn uses to pay his debts counts as the latter
Yes Orangey acting on his behalf counts
Tumbles is banned because Peter paid him his ill-gotten gains from the Canada market misresolution
Added to the Tumbles Financial Complex dashboard! 💸
"How will Tumbles avoid being late to repay any loans? (before 2027)" might be a snappier title in order to get more attention
@Robincvgr gargh, yet another Canadian election market for me to arbitrage! 😬😂