1) Drama surrounding Nathan Young's "fraud markets".

Context: After the FTX implosion, many felt betrayed by SBF and many EAs were quite self-critical at how no one saw it coming. In response to this, Nathan created a group of markets about influential people and if any would be exposed as fraudsters in an honest attempt to reduce the possibility of the SBF shock being repeated.

https://manifold.markets/group/scandal-markets

(may have to filter by resolved to see those which were cancelled).

Scott Alexander semi-jokingly mentioned them

 which led to people taking them far too seriously leading to criticism on Twitter and 

Nathan, although sincere with his original intent of using them as a creative way to hold powerful people accountable, quickly cancelled these markets in case they reflected poorly on EA.

2) Destiny community crashes Manifold Markets.

A slight over-exageration, but some of the intense live-trading on "permanent stocks" done in the 

https://www.reddit.com/r/Destiny/comments/yudv3x/dan_stocks_are_crashing_the_market/

We have since made improvements to improve the processing of high volume trading on a market, but Destiny viewers can hold a badge of pride that they temporarily broke a market.

3) Destiny community creates a real-time market tracker.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Destiny/comments/ywseun/i_updated_a_chart_that_tracks_destinygg_orbiters/

Check out this awesome creation by u/IDoStuff132. It takes permanent stocks from the Destiny group and lets you choose which ones you want to see plotted on a real-time tracker!

4) Analysis of Manifold's performance forecasting the midterms

A writeup comparing Manifold to other forecasting site's performance: 

https://mikesaintantoine.substack.com/p/scoring-midterm-election-forecasts?sd=pf

Hope you enjoyed! I'm planning to write these more regularly than our newsletter and they will likely contain a mix of fun stuff/memes I see created about Manifold too. If you enjoyed this you should definitely make sure you are 

 (will have a decent amount of content cross-posted but often with more in-depth discussion than what I anticipate these posts to look like).

Summary of Manifold Markets being discussed on the web.

Manifold in the Wild 17/11/22

Backlink to Welcome explanation for newcomers from Destinygg!

Manifold Markets is designed to be as intuitive for new users as possible. We believe that we do a good job at achieving this from a trader’s pov. However, it is perhaps less intuitive for new market creators, particularly those who are trying to use our markets to achieve a unique use-case (in this case to make “permanent” stocks). It is important that these markets are set up correctly as they can dictate how the entire community interacts with the site.

It should be noted that markets made in the form of a normal prediction have worked great so far and have been very popular:

This write-up is looking specifically at the use-case of turning our prediction markets into stocks that reflect the community’s sentiment towards an orbiter. We were initially taking a very hands-off approach and just letting the Destiny community experiment with different types of markets and seeing how they decided to use them. But now that we are in the process of partnering with Destiny, let’s really dive deep into their flaws and find solutions.

FYI, an orbiter is a term used to describe a person of significance who interacts with the Destiny community.

The aim of Orbiter Stocks is to mimic real stocks that have an absolute value tied to them (even if just play-money). However, instead of the value of a stock reflecting a real-life asset, it reflects the sentiment of the community towards an orbiter.

Therefore, for these markets to be successful the following should be true:

A few variations of orbiter markets that try to mimic stocks have already been experimented with. All of these have had problems. Our markets are simply not optimised to act as permanent stocks as they are tied to a probability. Because of this, there is a misalignment between trading on the sentiment of an orbiter vs trading for profit. This makes them less interesting to trade on and not at all actionable for any possible integrations with Destiny's stream.

Let’s quickly run through the different variations of orbiter stock markets that users have experimented with and created on our site thus far.

The first iteration was by far the worst. The market closed at a set time and then would simply resolve to Yes if the probability was >50%. This meant it could be manipulated by one last minute big bet. In the above market you can see how the sentiment towards Dan was very positive but it was pushed down by manipulators during the final hours.

Short-term resolve to majority at random time

The next iteration attempts to circumvent manipulation by setting a random resolution time. Theoretically, this is should decrease market manipulation as it becomes extremely risky as traders will correct the probability to the true sentiment and manipulators could lose a lot of mana if they don’t time it correctly.

In practice, as seen in the graph above, a group of users (or whales) can just place huge limit orders that keep the probability where they want it even if the majority of traders are trying to push it down.

Permanent stocks - main type of orbiter stock currently being created

The final iteration - permanent stocks. If markets that resolve can be manipulated, then just never resolve them!! These markets are more robust to manipulation than the previous iterations and tend to do a slightly better job at reflecting the average sentiment towards an orbiter.

However, there are still some problems. If a market never resolves, then there is less incentive to make a trade based on what you think the community sentiment/your own sentiment is. At some point the market will probably fluctuate in a way that is profitable for you due to being constrained between 0-100%.

Additionally, your potential earnings are greatly limited due to share pricing being based off of betting odds and limited to the range of 0 to 100 unlike traditional stocks. There is almost no incentive to lock up your funds and trade if the probability of the market is already very high or low >90% or <10% unless we massively increase their liquidity.

It is much cheaper to move the probability towards 50%. This can lead to the market not being as efficient for truly reflecting the sentiment towards a guest. It makes it so the market is slightly weighted towards the “losing” side. With other markets on our site this isn’t an issue as the probability is tied to a tangible source of truth and will eventually resolve.

For now, these markets are still a lot of fun and still work great with the memes. Users can make profit by being smart traders and the markets will naturally calibrate over time to give a general sense of sentiment. I think the problems I discussed will only become an actual issue if Destiny tries to actually do something with the probabilities being output. They are more easily manipulated if there is an incentive to when not tied to something tangible.

Possible solutions for official orbiter stocks

Here is my proposal for official orbiter stocks. These would require help from Destiny (or at least his mods):

Possible improvements for user-created stocks

A critical overview of orbiter stock markets and how they are currently being created

How to make orbiter stocks better

Here is the Destiny group if you can’t find it: 

. Make sure to follow it and markets will appear on your homepage.

I’m part of the core team working at Manifold Markets. I wanted to create this post to provide a little more context on what the hell is going on for people who feel out of the loop and want to play. I’ve written it in a way so people who aren’t existing members of the Destiny community can also understand what I’m referring to.

: Introduction to our site and some basics

How you can claim a free subscription to Destiny.gg using mana.

: Thoughts on using Manifold for Orbiter stocks and how to optimise them.

We are a prediction markets website that allows users to ask questions about anything they want and run a market. Instead of trading on an asset like you would with a traditional stock, you are trading on the probability of an event occurring.

Everything is play money (you may see this written as mana or Ṁ) and cannot be converted to real money. The partial exception is you may redeem your mana to donate to charity.

Every group has a leaderboard and you may also view each user’s portfolio by clicking their username in the bets/comments tabs.

How did the Destiny community start using it?

It all comes back to the sole user yaboi69. He shared the market in the Destiny subreddit prompting a couple of other users to try it including memestiny. From there it organically took off and after 1-2 weeks we had around 200-300 people from the Destiny community sign up to try trading.

The reason viewers engaged with it so readily was due to the existing memes about hypothetical “orbiter stocks”. Traders took our markets designed for making predictions and used them to make pseudo stocks which aim to reflect the community’s sentiment towards guests on Destiny’s stream, also known as orbiters.

Right now it is all memes and just a fun game to play on the side. It’s possible we make the markets actionable in the future and Destiny actually does something with the probabilities they generate, but no real plans regarding that yet. I have speaking with Destiny so you’ll hopefully see some cool integrations and experiments in the future.

FYI our code base is open source, here’s an example of something that has already been made by the Dgg community: 

https://www.reddit.com/r/Destiny/comments/yth1dq/i_created_a_real_time_orbiter_stock_chart/

Trading is quite intuitive after some practice. I would recommend betting small amounts (Ṁ10) on a couple of things to get the feel for how it works. You should receive an email after 1 week with some more mana and you can earn up to Ṁ25 from your daily trading streak. There are a few other ways to earn mana see: 

https://help.manifold.markets/manifold-101/how-can-i-earn-mana

Check out the help center for general advice on how things work on the site: 

Your first 5 markets are free to create. There are an infinite number of complex things you can do with our markets, but I recommend when creating your first markets to:

Many of our users never bother creating a market and enjoy only trading so just see what is fun for you.

There are a few different types of markets, you can read the full guide on how they work here: 

Here is an example of a YES / NO market which aligns with what the site and mechanism behind the markets is optimised for. You may buy shares of either YES or NO which vary in price based on the current probability.

Here is an example of a free-response market. Anyone can submit a new answer type which users can buy shares of.

There are also numeric markets and multi-choice markets. Although available to be created, it should be noted that the mechanism behind how these functions is still somewhat a work in progress.

You can claim your free Destiny sub using Ṁ1000 on this page: 

Subs can be claimed until the 9th of January or until the cap of 1000 subs runs out. Each Manifold account may claim only 1 sub. You may gift a sub to any destiny.gg account, simply enter the username.

As a new user, you should be able to expect to reach a balance of Ṁ1000 within a week of casual use thanks to our bonuses. We will be looking out for fraudulent activity that breaches our 

Within the Destiny community, a new type of market is being experimented with - Orbiter Stocks. These are YES/NO markets, that instead of having the intent to be resolved as our markets are designed for, attempt to emulate real stock markets by having no resolution. There are some flaws with using our markets in this way as they are limited to a range of 0 -100% and aren’t tied to anything tangible.

I have written a detailed post describing the orbiter stock markets that have already been experimented with and why some failed. The most recent iteration of permanent stocks which never resolve works much better and everyone has been enjoying them. However, I think they could still be improved and have some new ideas of what is the best way to make orbiter stocks moving forward: 

https://manifold.markets/post/how-to-make-orbiter-stocks-better

Hope that was helpful! If you have any questions (or bugs to report) be sure to ask in our 

. I would greatly appreciate any feedback on your experience as a new user: 

How Destiny viewers started using Manifold, how our site works, and a critical discussion of using Manifold for orbiter stocks.

Welcome explanation for newcomers from Destinygg!

Welcome to the Storybook Brawl predictions trading game!

prediction markets, no real money is involved here, it's just predicting for fun. 

We are not officially affiliated with Storybook Brawl.

 Go here to register your account and bet via Twitch Chat.

Predicting in any of the markets in this group will make you eligible to win the Peterpants bundle raffle and the 

There will be live trading markets that will be created and featured across all participants streams (will be the same for everyone) each game. These can be bet on via Twitch chat or the site.

In addition to this, the markets below will run for the duration of the event and can only be bet on through the site.

Accounts tagged as bots and myself (SirSalty) are not eligible to win. Anyone else can!

These are longterm Storybook Brawl markets that 

 part of the trading competition. Profit from these markets will not count towards the 

Feel free to create your own questions and add them to the SBB group.