I’ll sell my 29k YES shares at 78% for any buyers

All of us are putting in the work every day with predicting the MANA-MALA and this BIDEN-BOY is wanting the loan forgiveness? Forget it!!! Be the SPICE-MAN and let's be paying it off one Jimmy Carter market at the time!

Are you saying you are NOT in favor of raising funds for Tumbles to pay off his loan from you, and you would rather have him default?

Yes, this is very much the true American way. He can pull up by the suspender straps!!!

This were very high risk, high reward loans. Why should these creditors be bailed out? Tumbles should just declare bankruptcy and start afresh

It's not even like they were on the pareto frontier of risk vs reward, they were just negative ev and stupid

From the high interest rates they got I don't think it was negative ev

it seems to have, just descriptively, been a ponzi scheme on top of negative ev gambling? i don't see how loans to that can be +ev

I guess you could argue everyone could tell tumbles could leave manifold holding the bag?

@Simon74fe I don't care about the creditors being made whole very much, looking at the names I see people who are sophisticated enough to know what they were getting themselves into.

The main reason I think it's interesting to attempt to resolve this market No is because it sounds fun. Even though it is not likely to work, it will be enjoyable.

@jacksonpolack Yes, I think it was +ev for everyone involved, and -ev for Manifold because they were giving out free loans for highly leveraged positions

I only gave Tumbles loans because I thought it would be funny, I was not expecting positive EV. And indeed, I am having a lot of fun! $18 well spent.

/strutheo/do-you-want-to-help-us-think-of-way

I've started a Financial Support Group for Tumbles and so far he has raised almost 20,000 mana within 30 minutes. Gabrielle paid off an 18,000 mana loan and Tumbles is raising money via managram to Orangey:

https://manifold.markets/Orangey?tab=payments&a=10

Get in quick, I'm matching all donations up to 5000 mana within the next ~hour.

What is the priority of claims? Is manifold first or last?

Manifold immediately takes claim on mana paid out from markets (since it just counts against the negative account balance), but I’m pretty sure they’re last in line for getting donation money.

I think unless Manifold fines Orangey, it's the closest unsecured loan

@AlexbGoode He "promised" me that any mana I sent to "Orangey" would be used to pay off debts in order of due date, and not bet on markets. Keep an eye out on that front to see how trustworthy you think he is. (So far he has not bet with the mana.)

Will manifold allow tumbles to create a new financial complex with their alt account and leave the main account with 600k in the red?

well they let mira do that

I think it'd be reasonable for manifold to do that, if it's done with the attitue that "loans were stupid and our fault, and we apologize to our users and are eating the resulting loss"

Alright, time is up on the matching offer for now, but I might offer it again in the future.

@Eliza When will you pay your matched donations?

@AlexbGoode Only 739 mana was sent in during the matching hour and I already paid in 1010 so it wasn't enough to trigger additional donations. But since you seem to be still interested, I'll retroactively extend yesterday's matching period from 1 hour to 24 hours. The total is already 1347 and I'll match up to 5000 through 24h from my first donation.