Resolves YES if @Tumbles is even slightly late to pay back any mana loan that they intentionally accepted. Any extensions must have been agreed upon in advance.
@Tumbles may choose to resolve this market NO if they don't owe any mana to other users. Once they do so, they will be prohibited from taking on any new loans for three months.
I will use this description as a ledger of what I owe and when I owe it. I will update it as appropriate. All amounts listed include any fees or interest associated with the loan. Dates listed are the final day during which payment is not late (PST -8:00).
July 31st 2025 - Ṁ33,000 @TimothyJohnson5c16
July 31st 2025 - Ṁ56,800 @AndrewG
August 2nd 2025 - Ṁ16,500 @ScipioFabius
August 31st 2025 - Ṁ79,000 @Joshua
August 31st 2025 - Ṁ39,000 @EBurk
October 31st 2025 Ṁ70,000 @UniversalFC
October 31st 2025 - Ṁ56,000 @Vortex
October 31st 2025 - Ṁ70,000 @DrDerek
Jan 7th 2026 - Ṁ269,000 @AmmonLam
Total: Ṁ689,300
Loans paid off or cleared since Biden dropped out: Ṁ981,800 (short term loans not included)
Total loans previously paid off on time before Biden dropped out: 711,679
Check out the Tumbles Financial Complex! 💸
1,000
Okay @Tumbles
-You have 14 (fourteen) markets where you registered a profit or loss of >25k mana (that's a lot! I don't have a SINGLE market that meets that criterion)
-ALL 14 of those are losses. That is to say, your 14 largest profits/losses on manifold markets are ALL losses.
-How?! Like, how is that possible? That seems incredibly unlucky, to the point where you should start just betting the opposite of whatever you would normally bet, perhaps.
@bens to be fair, ~half of them (& the vast majority of the mana losses) are just variants of the same n=1 for biden dropping out. for true "different events that went against tumbles", you could tally something like:
biden dropping out (~6.5 of those markets)
kamala losing election (several more)
biden pardoning fauci
TSLA not reaching $275
women more accurate in self assessment
Manifold Next Word Prediction Model Experiment (looks like there were some partially offsetting profits there, haven't tallied it up)
the URL of manifold politics
conservative party winning next election in canada (paper loss, could flip)
will tumbles pay back a loan (paper loss, direct derivative of the rest)
still the GOATed track record, nothing else on manifold like it
@Ziddletwix Note that TSLA not reaching 275 are fake losses, I predicted that right but explicitly sold off shares to someone at a discounted price to them as a way to settle a debt to them.
MNWPM was also a fake loss, I made mana on that in a settlement agreement in a whalebait showdown, I just lost paper profits resolving the settlement.
@Tumbles I admire that you take more risks than me. I'm heavily limited on this platform because I rarely bet more than a few thousand mana on any individual market.
@Eliza I have an investment opportunity with an high EV that other users don't have access to, but I don't think I should explain it at the moment 🤔
Betting on a Smash tournament is not going very well for me this weekend👀
Top 8 is tomorrow. I don't want to wish ill on one of the most beloved melee players of all time, but it would be ok with me if Mang0 woke up on the wrong side of the bed tomorrow.
Link:
/Tumbles/who-will-win-melee-singles-at-genes-RC5dCUP5lC
