Resolves YES if @Tumbles is even slightly late to pay back any mana loan that they intentionally accepted. Any extensions must have been agreed upon in advance.

@Tumbles may choose to resolve this market NO if they don't owe any mana to other users. Once they do so, they will be prohibited from taking on any new loans for three months.

I will use this description as a ledger of what I owe and when I owe it. I will update it as appropriate. All amounts listed include any fees or interest associated with the loan. Dates listed are the final day during which payment is not late (PST -8:00).

Jul 7th 2024 - Ṁ2,000 @EvanDaniel (additional fee based on average APR when due)
Aug 31st 2024 - Ṁ36,300 @TonyPepperoni
Sep 7th 2024 - Ṁ41,000 @AmmonLam
Sep 9th 2024 - Ṁ18,000 @Gabrielle
Oct 30th 2024 - Ṁ3,000 @Rucker
Jan 6th 2025 - Ṁ35,000 @QuantumObserver
Jan 6th 2025 - Ṁ13,500 @EvanDaniel
Jan 6th 2025 - Ṁ32,000 @Tripping
Jan 14th 2025 - Ṁ138,000 @AmmonLam

Jan 31st 2025 - Ṁ51,000 @sophiawisdom

Jan 31st 2025 - Ṁ31,000 @CharlesLien

Nuke loans due upon market resolution - Ṁ5,000 @EvanDaniel
Loan due if and when Trump wins 2024 election - Ṁ24,000 @Conflux

Total: Ṁ405,800 (doesn't include conditional loan)

Total loans previously paid off on time: 709,679 (short term loans not included)

Outstanding debts owed to me:

Check out the Tumbles Financial Complex!

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I made $16 profit on this market; at 1333 shrimps/dollar, tumbles' antics have helped over 20,000 shrimp 😂

The loan program has been extended by fifteen days! I think that should be another 100k-120k in my balance going into the election

Wait I just realized that since mana is being devalued by 10x, and all future mana introduced (daily bonuses, purchased mana, etc) will be 10x as powerful as before, it should be trivial to pay all this off. I basically only owe 40k, and if I paid it all off now I will have only 22k left instead of 220k. Everything before the pivot is just peanuts now

@Tumbles I think this is half correct - you can buy mana with $ for 10x less than before. But other parts of the mana economy probably won't change in value. Existing investments certainly don't. And sources of mana like bonuses, won't change in value (unless they explicitly decide to also 10x them, which could make sense given the devaluation, but doesn't make sense given that they are trying to stop giving away so much free mana.)

I think "I basically owe only 40k" is not correct. It's more like "I used to owe 400k mana = 4k USD, now I owe 400k mana = 400 USD"

@jack That's true, you're right about all of that I think. At the very least it has increased the margin of failure where I would fix it with a real money injection

Fun fact, based on the last shareholders report, if I was able to liquidate all my positions for their current value and use it to pay everyone back early, I would have 220k left over. That's without the 9 months of profits I was planning to use those loans to generate! I think that's pretty good considering I had less than 100 mana when I started taking out loans! We've come a long way

@Tumbles Feel free to pay me back early if you want!

@Tripping Still figuring out what my participation on Manifold will be moving forward. No matter what I do paying people back will be a priority. I won't leave the website completely without paying people back, if I want to leave I'll pay people back early first

It was just announced that among many other drastic changes, you will no longer be able to send people mana, user to user. In any way, with workarounds being a bannable offense. I believe the admins will work with me manually to pay off my existing debts, but I naturally won't be taking on any more.

bought Ṁ1 YES at 17%
bought Ṁ200 YES

@Tumbles there's no way you can liquidate your holdings that quickly

Paying off his loans just got 10x cheaper though.

@Eliza with real money though. unlikely tumbles will actually do that

@nikki I can't liquidate that quickly, that's why James says the admins would work something out so that prexisting loans can still be paid off

@Tumbles How would this market resolve if they are not able to work something out and you can't legally pay back your loans?

@Simon74fe If there's literally no way to transfer mana, and I try my hardest to negotiate with the admins to find a way but they are adamant that the mana must stay in my account, and they will be watching me and if I transfer the via a sneaky way they will ban me....

In that case, I dunno. It's really not fair to say I'm late, it's more like manifold is stealing the mana from my creditors. I would be leaving Manifold immediately in that case so I guess I could just leave it to the mods to figure out

@Tumbles Or you pay your creditors with real money, off platform.

@Eliza I don't intend to do that except for the loans where an agreement was specifically made to that effect. I don't think my creditors expected me to do that, at the very least I hope not, I don't think I've ever said anything to give that impression


Behold, another Tumbles Financial Complex shareholders report (April edition)

I was going to include some measures of how liquid I am and how liquid I'm expecting to be, but I don't think there's really a good metric for that. We're steering by vibes baby, just my style 🕶

lol, would you call this a 'stock buyback'?

@Tumbles @SirCryptomind Why is this trading at such a large discount? Default risk is only up like 15%

@Tumbles this is actually massive; borrow money, put on clown makeup and taunt your creditors about what a default risk you are, then buy your own debt back at pennies on the dollar!

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