Resolves YES if @Tumbles is even slightly late to pay back any mana loan that they intentionally accepted. Any extensions must have been agreed upon in advance.
@Tumbles may choose to resolve this market NO if they don't owe any mana to other users. Once they do so, they will be prohibited from taking on any new loans for three months.
I will use this description as a ledger of what I owe and when I owe it. I will update it as appropriate. All amounts listed include any fees or interest associated with the loan. Dates listed are the final day during which payment is not late (PST -8:00).
Jan 6th 2025 - Ṁ35,000 @QuantumObserver
Jan 6th 2025 - Ṁ13,500 @EvanDaniel
Jan 6th 2025 - Ṁ32,000 @Tripping
Jan 31st 2025 - Ṁ51,000 @sophiawisdom
Jan 31st 2025 - Ṁ31,000 @CharlesLien
Nuke loans due upon market resolution - Ṁ5,000 @EvanDaniel
Total: Ṁ167,500
Total loans previously paid off on time before Biden dropped out: 711,679 (short term loans not included)
Loans paid off or cleared since Biden dropped out: Ṁ655,500
Check out the Tumbles Financial Complex! 💸
1,000
3.00We're so gonna make it. I can't believe that I thought I was borderline underwater going into the election, lost 200k or something on Kamala losing, and now I feel like after digging into some deeper accounting I'm actually rich? It's like an endless cycle of cope except it's reality itself that is coping and refusing to accept my account should be dead
The only explanation is that I am truly blessed by the grace of Mira
@Tumbles If I'm reading the shareholder report right, you can get all the mana you need to pay off your loans by getting all of the markets that ask "will Tumbles pay off his loans on time?" to resolve YES across the board? Edit: This excludes the 1.4 million Mana loan.
Is this a financial chicken and egg problem?
@Quroe Yup! But I won't be doing that, even if it means everything blows up. I think the assumption I can't do that has been an important part of why people chose to participate in this market. I think it's a fair assumption and won't be punishing it.
It does mean that if I can just manage to pay everything back, then even if it takes all of the mana in my account I will still be left with a lump of mana to continue playing with afterwards!
@Tumbles I find this extremely funny and entertaining. Hats off to you if you make it to the other side.
I added an addendum to the Tumbles Financial Complex report I made a week ago, and fixed the "total loans" number which was incorrect when it was posted (oops)
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1VkqOQrLHqDQuTFgGdFI-B0FjpPXYf7fQpgl5T81H_go/edit?usp=sharing
Just for reference, at the time of posting this comment, this market is sitting at 38%
40% difference for arbitrage: https://manifold.markets/bluefrog/depending-on-the-2024-potus-electio
25% difference for arbitrage: https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/when-tumbles-pays-his-loans-off-wil
20% difference for arbitrage: https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/if-tumbles-is-late-to-pay-back-a-lo
I may have sold for election money, but let it be known I never doubted my goat for a moment.
Tumbles Financial Complex Shareholders Report Nov19
I applaud my brave investors who still hold 62% faith in my ability to raise funds even in these dire times. This is truly a testament to the Tumbles Financial Complex’s status as Too Big to Fail. Diamond hands everyone, we’re all gonna make it (to the moon).
The Tumbles Credit Score market resolved against me. The regulatory bodies are blowing their metaphorical alarms.
I currently hold M862,221 in daily loans from Manifold, plus an additional M1,400,000 in discretionary loans from Manifold
@JamesGrugett @Austin @SG @Manifold
Is this where I can come to claim my +Ṁ1,400,000 loan? Thank you in advance. 🙏