Resolves YES if @Tumbles is even slightly late to pay back any mana loan that they intentionally accepted. Any extensions must have been agreed upon in advance.
@Tumbles may choose to resolve this market NO if they don't owe any mana to other users. Once they do so, they will be prohibited from taking on any new loans for three months.
I will use this description as a ledger of what I owe and when I owe it. I will update it as appropriate. All amounts listed include any fees or interest associated with the loan. Dates listed are the final day during which payment is not late (PST -8:00).
July 31st 2025 - Ṁ33,000 @TimothyJohnson5c16
July 31st 2025 - Ṁ56,800 @AndrewG
August 2nd 2025 - Ṁ16,500 @ScipioFabius
August 31st 2025 - Ṁ79,000 @Joshua
August 31st 2025 - Ṁ39,000 @EBurk
Jan 7th 2026 - Ṁ269,000 @AmmonLam
Total: Ṁ493,300
Loans paid off or cleared since Biden dropped out: Ṁ981,800 (short term loans not included)
Total loans previously paid off on time before Biden dropped out: 711,679
Check out the Tumbles Financial Complex! 💸
1,000
Betting on a Smash tournament is not going very well for me this weekend👀
Top 8 is tomorrow. I don't want to wish ill on one of the most beloved melee players of all time, but it would be ok with me if Mang0 woke up on the wrong side of the bed tomorrow.
Link:
/Tumbles/who-will-win-melee-singles-at-genes-RC5dCUP5lC
@Tumbles what sort of interest rate do you normally get offered? I'd consider something like 20k now for 40k in 6 months, but I'm aware that's quite steep
@Fion @AndrewG @ScipioFabius The more dire a position @Tumbles is in, the more he will have to go to shadier and shadier loan sharks, who charge higher and higher interest rates. Please charge 100% interest. That would make my day.
Game theory: Should this market sit at 50%?
In theory, if Tumbles ever finds himself in dire straights, and nobody is willing to loan him out any more mana for a near due debt, he could sell his NO position to 50% and arbitrage that liquidity into a coin flip market, since those typically resolve once per day and have quick turnaround. He could rally everybody to bet into one big chungus of a limit order at 50% odds. We'd all fight one big war at the end of the world as the mother of all Manifold memes.
If he wins the flip, he buys back some of his NO shares with whatever was left over after paying the piper's debts, and this glorious cycle continues.
If he busts on the coin flip, Tumbles would be dead in the water either way. What is there to lose?
Ergo, we should all bet this market up to 50% in anticipation of this move and extract the profit before Tumbles can. This only works so long as Tumbles holds a net NO position.
(I'm not sold on this argument myself. Is it flawed? If so, where?)
@Quroe Reverse game theory: Sometimes there is an agent who is not playing the same game as everyone else.
My plan was to pay up to 100k as a gift toward Tumbles's loans if at any point he got the [Tumbles's loans outstanding] - [Tumbles' current balance] below 100k. After he paid off the 6 January loans I thought for sure it was going to happen, because the outstanding loan amount was 134k and his balance was ~25k. Before he closed the gap, he took a new 269k loan and it looks like it will be a long, long time until he gets back to the same point again.
@Tumbles Would you be interested in me setting up a coin flip market? Just tell me when you'd want it to resolve for your deadlines.
he could sell his NO position to 50% and arbitrage that liquidity into a coin flip market,
If only you could see his sell panel... 😰 He's got ~zero liquidity at this point and very little even down to 10% price. Selling it to 50% would take out mana from his balance, not liquidate.
