Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?
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[image]Ladies and gentleman, I’m afraid it’s looking pretty joever. My balance is -731k. Once the loan markets resolve, counting my outstanding loans, I’ll be almost three million mana in the red. It’s been an honour meming with you all. To my investors/creditors, I’m sorry it ends this way. This was always going to end in either glory or disaster, and unfortunately it came to disaster. I’ll make a mini final report once the dust settles and markets finish resolving.
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I hope you're happy America
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@Tumbles I think I might actually make it 😆
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Resolves YES if @Tumbles is even slightly late to pay back any mana loan that they intentionally accepted. Any extensions must have been agreed upon in advance.

@Tumbles may choose to resolve this market NO if they don't owe any mana to other users. Once they do so, they will be prohibited from taking on any new loans for three months.

I will use this description as a ledger of what I owe and when I owe it. I will update it as appropriate. All amounts listed include any fees or interest associated with the loan. Dates listed are the final day during which payment is not late (PST -8:00).


Jan 6th 2025 - Ṁ35,000 @QuantumObserver
Jan 6th 2025 - Ṁ13,500 @EvanDaniel
Jan 6th 2025 - Ṁ32,000 @Tripping

Jan 31st 2025 - Ṁ51,000 @sophiawisdom

Jan 31st 2025 - Ṁ31,000 @CharlesLien
Jan 31st 2025 - Ṁ52,000 @Bayesian

Nuke loans due upon market resolution - Ṁ5,000 @EvanDaniel

Total: Ṁ219,500

Total loans previously paid off on time before Biden dropped out: 711,679 (short term loans not included)

Loans paid off or cleared since Biden dropped out: Ṁ655,500

Check out the Tumbles Financial Complex! 💸

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@Tumbles Don't do it.

@Eliza Can I really let this market resolve? What if there is a new ball of mana out there somewhere?

@Tumbles Surely we are all better off if we get this market to resolve No, and you unlock the ~100,000 mana that you have tied up in it? How many other markets will you profit on if this one resolves No?

@Eliza But 300k would be even bigger than 100k!

@Tumbles Just don't take any new loans.

@Eliza It's almost Christmas.

@SirSalty @JamesGrugett You know how around this time of year presidents usually give their pardons? You should do something similar for a few accounts that have a negative mana balance but are still active, make it an annual tradition. I nominate myself to that inaugural group.

So funny how this market has become the street corner where destitute users beg for clemency. "You feed one bum, one time, and they never leave you alone!" 😂

@Tumbles I just need one bailout, it’s all I’m asking for.

@Predictor You're just going to bet it all on drugs

@Predictor do what thou wilt

@jim OMG LMAO Jim just sent predictor 217k mana

how jim spends his leverage

@Bayesian ... shall be the whole of the law

I’m pinging @SemioticRivalry in case they have something entertaining to say about it

@jim Aleister, dead broke again? ;) 93 93/93

@Bayesian absolutely wild use of a 200k loan, @jim

@jim is God and GOAT, it’s a Christmas miracle I don’t even know what to say. Thank you x100 😊

@Tumbles Thanks for ping. I am shock by it and will need to be reconsidering my opinions of the site and how we function here. Tumbles gets the bailout and is crazed yet sexy degenerate gambler. Predictor gets the bailout and is the unthrifty drug addict. What must I do for it? #soberlife

@CryptoNeoLiberalist @Tumbles Not sure where the 'drugs' thing came from? It's pretty slanderous. I have never spoken or written about it on here. I do not partake in any activities like this.

@Predictor check the discord... lots of evidence there about how you've gambled away your mana betting on drugs.

@benshindel Links? I don't really know much about it, is that a website where people gossip and make up stories about manifold users? Seems kind of rude.

This market will never not be a focal point of Manifold culture.

@Quroe What will we do when this market closes in six weeks?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 @Quroe Clearly I need to keep taking loans until a replacement meme hub is established

@Tumbles Can you make a convincing argument for how a negative interest rate loan could be value add to the lender? I feel like that's the next big thing.

@Quroe Well, currently it looks like my ability to pay people back might depend on holding loans that are larger than the positions they are attached to. If someone gave me negative interest rate loans to keep this market open long enough for those positions to resolve, I wouldn't be able to pay anyone back, and the lender could make mana betting YES on this market. Lol.

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