The loan program has been extended by fifteen days! I think that should be another 100k-120k in my balance going into the election

Wait I just realized that since mana is being devalued by 10x, and all future mana introduced (daily bonuses, purchased mana, etc) will be 10x as powerful as before, it should be trivial to pay all this off. I basically only owe 40k, and if I paid it all off now I will have only 22k left instead of 220k. Everything before the pivot is just peanuts now

@Tumbles I think this is half correct - you can buy mana with $ for 10x less than before. But other parts of the mana economy probably won't change in value. Existing investments certainly don't. And sources of mana like bonuses, won't change in value (unless they explicitly decide to also 10x them, which could make sense given the devaluation, but doesn't make sense given that they are trying to stop giving away so much free mana.)

I think "I basically owe only 40k" is not correct. It's more like "I used to owe 400k mana = 4k USD, now I owe 400k mana = 400 USD"

@jack That's true, you're right about all of that I think. At the very least it has increased the margin of failure where I would fix it with a real money injection

Fun fact, based on the last shareholders report, if I was able to liquidate all my positions for their current value and use it to pay everyone back early, I would have 220k left over. That's without the 9 months of profits I was planning to use those loans to generate! I think that's pretty good considering I had less than 100 mana when I started taking out loans! We've come a long way

@Tumbles Feel free to pay me back early if you want!

@Tripping Still figuring out what my participation on Manifold will be moving forward. No matter what I do paying people back will be a priority. I won't leave the website completely without paying people back, if I want to leave I'll pay people back early first

It was just announced that among many other drastic changes, you will no longer be able to send people mana, user to user. In any way, with workarounds being a bannable offense. I believe the admins will work with me manually to pay off my existing debts, but I naturally won't be taking on any more.

@Tumbles there's no way you can liquidate your holdings that quickly

Paying off his loans just got 10x cheaper though.

@Eliza with real money though. unlikely tumbles will actually do that

@nikki I can't liquidate that quickly, that's why James says the admins would work something out so that prexisting loans can still be paid off

@Tumbles How would this market resolve if they are not able to work something out and you can't legally pay back your loans?

@Simon74fe If there's literally no way to transfer mana, and I try my hardest to negotiate with the admins to find a way but they are adamant that the mana must stay in my account, and they will be watching me and if I transfer the via a sneaky way they will ban me....

In that case, I dunno. It's really not fair to say I'm late, it's more like manifold is stealing the mana from my creditors. I would be leaving Manifold immediately in that case so I guess I could just leave it to the mods to figure out

@Tumbles Or you pay your creditors with real money, off platform.

@Eliza I don't intend to do that except for the loans where an agreement was specifically made to that effect. I don't think my creditors expected me to do that, at the very least I hope not, I don't think I've ever said anything to give that impression

Behold, another Tumbles Financial Complex shareholders report (April edition)

I was going to include some measures of how liquid I am and how liquid I'm expecting to be, but I don't think there's really a good metric for that. We're steering by vibes baby, just my style 🕶

lol, would you call this a 'stock buyback'?

@Tumbles @SirCryptomind Why is this trading at such a large discount? Default risk is only up like 15%

@Tumbles this is actually massive; borrow money, put on clown makeup and taunt your creditors about what a default risk you are, then buy your own debt back at pennies on the dollar!

The OG stonk

@nmw T ballz

If shit hits the fan

For all the fucks I put you through

If you need Canadian law help and I’m not band talk to me

If not

Ammon

I have family in BC and FUCKING LOVE

Peaks and valleys

#baconbrothers

Bing it

We for REAL might be Eskimo bros

Love the FUCK out of you and structube

And Josh

And uncle

And big tats

And Tame

And plasma

Now I’m crying

@AmmonLam The loans continue through April, so I'm not in immediate danger

The new changes announced by Manifold don't look like much fun for me. However, two months ago I got paranoid about potential changes to the loan system. I negotiated with my creditors to move deadlines behind big resolutions in case something like this happened.

I plan to make a third shareholders report next Friday. Let the dust settle a bit, give myself some time to do all the accounting, and then see what things look like.

@Tumbles New changes?

@Tripping https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Announcement-A-sustainable-mana-economy-08b86e8937554cc7a4608371f66ecb10