Resolves YES if @Tumbles is even slightly late to pay back any mana loan that they intentionally accepted. Any extensions must have been agreed upon in advance.
@Tumbles may choose to resolve this market NO if they don't owe any mana to other users. Once they do so, they will be prohibited from taking on any new loans for three months.
I will use this description as a ledger of what I owe and when I owe it. I will update it as appropriate. All amounts listed include any fees or interest associated with the loan. Dates listed are the final day during which payment is not late (PST -8:00).
(short term loans not listed, nor included in running totals)
June 8th 2025 - Ṁ20,000 @RomanHauksson
June 8th 2025 - Ṁ169,000 @cthor
June 8th 2025 - Ṁ2,000 @copiumarc
June 8th 2025 - Ṁ4,000 @Bayesian
June 8th 2025 - Ṁ30,000 @TheWabiSabi
June 8th 2025 - Ṁ80,000 @Gen
June 8th 2025 - Ṁ6,000 @Vortex
June 8th 2025 - Ṁ2,000 @jcb
June 8th 2025 - Ṁ84,138 @Quillist
June 8th 2025 - Ṁ4,000 @A
June 8th 2025 - Ṁ4,674 @Robincvgr
June 8th 2025 - Ṁ3,392 @mana
June 8th 2025 - Ṁ4,000 @JeffreyDeLucca
June 9th 2025 - Ṁ20,000 @TheSchwa
June 9th 2025 - Ṁ10,000 @Mh
June 9th 2025 - Ṁ20,000 @sophiawisdom
June 9th 2025 - Ṁ10,000 @copiumarc
June 9th 2025 - Ṁ2,000 @BlackCrusade
June 9th 2025 - Ṁ2,000 @AleaNiled
June 9th 2025 - Ṁ10,000 @HillaryClinton
June 9th 2025 - Ṁ2,000 @khang2009
June 9th 2025 - Ṁ2,000 @atmidnight
June 9th 2025 - Ṁ10,000 @bence
June 9th 2025 - Ṁ2,000 @draaglom
June 10th 2025 - Ṁ2,002 @crowlsyong
June 11th 2025 - Ṁ10,000 @kopecs
June 11th 2025 - Ṁ20,000 @copiumarc
June 11th 2025 - Ṁ10,000 @TheWabiSabi
June 11th 2025 - Ṁ2,690 @CryptoNeoLiberalist
June 12th 2025 - Ṁ2,000 @ONEMILLION
June 15th 2025 - Ṁ100,000 @Tripping
July 31st 2025 - Ṁ33,000 @TheWabiSabi
July 31st 2025 - Ṁ56,800 @AndrewG
August 2nd 2025 - Ṁ16,500 @ScipioFabius
August 7th 2025 - Ṁ24,000 @CryptoNeoLiberalist
August 31st 2025 - Ṁ79,000 @Joshua
August 31st 2025 - Ṁ39,000 @EBurk
October 31st 2025 Ṁ70,000 @SemioticRivalry
October 31st 2025 - Ṁ56,000 @Vortex
October 31st 2025 - Ṁ70,000 @DrDerek
Jan 7th 2026 - Ṁ269,000 @AmmonLam
April 20th 2026 - Ṁ69,696 @GazDownright
April 20th 2026 - Ṁ6,804 @Robincvgr
April 20th 2026 - Ṁ6,000 @TheWabiSabi
April 20th 2026 - Ṁ30,000 @EBurk
April 20th 2026 - Ṁ6,414 @crowlsyong
April 20th 2026 - Ṁ14,070 @cthor
April 20th 2026 - Ṁ15,000 @copiumarc
April 20th 2026 - Ṁ6,000 @zsig
April 20th 2026 - Ṁ44,000 @StopPunting
April 20th 2026 - Ṁ5,200 @ahalekelly
April 20th 2026 - Ṁ6,000 @robert
April 20th 2026 - Ṁ10,176 @mana
April 20th 2026 - Ṁ10,140 @NivlacM
April 20th 2026 - Ṁ6,000 @GastonKessler
April 20th 2026 - Ṁ6,000 @A
April 20th 2026 - Ṁ60,000 @Simon74fe
April 30th 2026 - Ṁ151,500 @SanghyeonSeo
May 7th 2026 - Ṁ15,001 @ManaTotal: 1,831,197
Debts paid off or cleared after Poker at Manifest 2025: Ṁ56,002
Debts paid off or cleared after Carney won and before Poker at Manifest 2025: Ṁ141,349
Debts paid off or cleared after Biden dropped out and before Carney won: Ṁ981,800
Total debts previously paid off on time before Biden dropped out: Ṁ711,679
Check out the Tumbles Financial Complex! 💸
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ104,002 | |
| 2 | Ṁ98,340 | |
| 3 | Ṁ97,987 | |
| 4 | Ṁ64,894 | |
| 5 | Ṁ52,912 |
People are also trading
An open letter to the Manifold community
https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/987142274989297694/1382861922482917388
I've sold my NO shares to @cthor, who has been making big plays in the background along with a shadowy cabal of debt manipulators. I've seen some of their plans... I know not if they be borne of genius or madness
As for myself, I must admit I find myself daunted by the state of my account. Even if I use an alt to avoid my negative balance, it's very unlikely I'm going to find a way to cough up Ṁ1,852,199. Perhaps I'll buy a lottery ticket tomorrow
Apologies to everyone who find themselves left holding the bag. I tried! Y'know, it's possible I may have been an unexceptional future predictor all along 🤔 the possibility of spectacular failure has always been a part of what made all of this fun, and unfortunately spectacular failure has come to pass.
I will continue honoring my debts to whatever extent is possible. I will put any mana I can get my hands on into paying my creditors.
Thank you to everyone who participated up until now! You enabled this to be a pretty cool thing for me for a long time now, hopefully the feeling is mutual for many of you. I think we got pretty damn close to glory, considering how consistently wrong I've been for like two years now.
I'm not necessarily going anywhere! I just predict my habits on the site will be impacted by the fact my account is now a six million mana crater.
Love you all 🧡 🧡 🧡
Orangey sends his regards
An open letter to the Manifold community
https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/987142274989297694/1382861922482917388
I'm willing to buy 100 mana of debt for 10 mana, if anyone is interested. A better rate than others but only a small amount.
@HillaryClinton when I first posted this, I was joking bc I thought it was just entirely terrible… but now I’m realizing that it actually might make sense if you’ve lended at a higher interest rate than 25% 😆
@HillaryClinton uhh, I think it was more like, you give me 10k of debt and I give you back 12.5k debt in a year
@HillaryClinton well, this would be essentially NEGATIVE 25% APR, since your debt would be growing, not shrinking
@bens oh I thought you were gonna flip the debt and buy it back for cheaper in a year.
I don't understand how this works.
@HillaryClinton You don't have to worry about what the other party does -- just think about comparing the current value of your 12,000 mana of Tumbles June 9 2025 Tumbles debt against 15,000 mana of [any-dated] Tumbles debt 1 year from now.
If Tumbles gets back on his feet, perhaps the 15,000 will pay out in full!
@Tumbles my debt of 10k mana has been forgiven
If anybody wants to sell debt, I have a 5% offer open for 24 hours
@100Anonymous I love how Manifold will turn anything into a Ponzi scheme. I wish I'd bought some debt at 1 or 2% so I could now sell it to you at 5% 😂
Now I'm wondering "can I short Tumbles debt?" Maybe I could borrow Tumbles debt from somebody else, sell it to you for 5%, and then buy some Tumbles debt in the future (hopefully at a lower price) to repay the person I borrowed the debt from...