@Manifold recently "loaned" Ṁ1,400,000 to @Tumbles :
My primary information source for resolutions will be Manifold tools (i.e. looking at profit/portfolio value graphs) when possible, but I expect to rely on statements from Manifold and Tumbles for some resolutions, and I expect to largely take these statements at face value. For this market, "before 2026" is equivalent to "by the end of 2025" (and this is also true for other years in the obvious way). I may extend the market if options resolving after 2025 are added.
I will not bet on this market.
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@Quroe @ManifoldPolitics can you please clarify if this means the loan to Tumbles is officially due? If so was it due May 4th or another date?
@HillaryClinton I can clarify. The loan did not come due, it had no due date. I simply suggested to Joshua while he was busting down doors performing mana seizures that he might as well take the loan back so that my account accurately displays my true net worth. So long as my account is unusable anyways it's neat seeing all of the debts consolidated into one number :P
As for how that should be interpreted for this market, I'm not sure, but those are the material facts
@Quroe I think the loan has been paid back. 1,400,000 mana went into Tumbles's account (from Manifold) some time ago. Now 1,400,000 has left Tumbles's account and gone back to Manifold. That's what repayment looks like.
The only logically consistent alternative is that he hasn't "paid it off" until his balance is positive again, but that's a pretty weird definition. That would require considering a negative balance as being a debt to Manifold. And if that's the case, then Manifold has loaned another "at least" 1,000,000 mana to Tumbles, because his balance is more than 2,400,000 in the red.
However you look at it, some of these answers need to flip.
My current opinion is that Tumbles has not paid off the loan. I think negative balances can be considered a "loan" from Manifold (mainly in that you have to pay it back to Manifold), and as Tumbles said, this largely just consolidated the Manifold loan to display in Tumbles' account.
@Nightsquared so what would it mean for him to pay it back now? Getting to zero net worth? Or just increasing net worth by 1,400,000 from the low point?
FYI Tumbles had -1,869,694 all-time profits on August 17th (when this market opened), so this resolves YES if tumbles has less than -3,269,694 in all-time profits at the end of the year.
@Nightsquared You can probably edit that into the option for clarity, something like:
Tumbles will lose it all before 2026 (all-time profit less than -Ṁ3,269,694)
That's correct. Although I believe Tumbles has already dipped below the threshold, since Pierre lost, but it's not yet showing this in his all-time profit
@Nightsquared Is this logic being continuously checked? Or are we only checking at end of year? (There's potential ambiguity between the words "before" from the market and "at" in "at the end of the year" from the thread opener comment.)
@Quroe It's continuous. I default to going with what the most salient description implies in these kinds of issues, which is the option description in this case. I was planning on allowing a small grace period so it wouldn't resolve based on fluctuations, but I don't think it matters at this point-Tumbles' profits is firmly below the threshold.
@HillaryClinton damn it. I sold it off because I thought I did my math wrong, since it wasn't showing...
@Nightsquared (BTW @Tumbles if you disagree I'd be willing to refund your loss here, since there was some ambiguity)
@Gameknight hypothetically, could Mira reactivate their account and then pay it off? It seems plausible, but maybe unlikely enough that this should be resolved now anyways.
@Nightsquared Mira is an individual, not just a Manifold account. They are active on Twitter, and have an alt on Manifold they've used to take care stuff before
@Tumbles At the same time, the message specifically tags the account, and the account has been deleted, so it should resolve no. If it were just Mira without the "@", then I would agree with you, but the answer specifically tags an account, no?
@Gameknight No, the answer does not specifically say mana has to be transferred from that account. It links Mira's profile to add clarity to which Mira the answer is referring to, since there is more than one person on the planet named Mira.