@Manifold recently "loaned" Ṁ1,400,000 to @Tumbles :
My primary information source for resolutions will be Manifold tools (i.e. looking at profit/portfolio value graphs) when possible, but I expect to rely on statements from Manifold and Tumbles for some resolutions, and I expect to largely take these statements at face value. For this market, "before 2026" is equivalent to "by the end of 2025" (and this is also true for other years in the obvious way). I may extend the market if options resolving after 2025 are added.
I will not bet on this market.
1,000People are also trading
Does orangey count as legal representation? If Tumbles can prove he has made a payment to orangey for legal services, then I feel comfortable with orangey representing tumbles and handling Tumbles' financial affairs.
Who resolved this? @Nightsquared I don't understand why Tumbles loan is considered partially paid off.
Any random user paying off an insignificant payment really doesn't seem right
@mods looks like the creator is inactive.
Do you consider your debt to be partially paid back by Tumbles? The description asks for your input!
@EvanDaniel i don’t think he’s paid any of it, but maybe i’m misunderstanding something bc some of those answers think he’ll have paid some of it
@Nightsquared please take into account Mannifold's Statement whether or not they consider the debt partially paid back by Tumbles etc... like in the description. Good luck deciding!
@mods @Nightsquared So it seems Tumble's cat paid Manifold 10 mana. Does that really count as him paying back any of his loan to Manifold? Can someone else or some other animal really pay back 10 mana just to win the bet above?
@HillaryClinton Speaking as a user, not as a moderator, Tumbles has been pretty clear that Orangey is not him, so I don't think that should count.
Speaking as a moderator, this will resolve however the creator thinks is right.
@Gabrielle ahh but check out the description:
"I expect to rely on statements from Manifold and Tumbles for some resolutions"
So manifold does have some say if they consider the loan partially paid back by Tumbles or not.
@HillaryClinton Hmm, good point. I suppose that'll be a question for the Manifold staff. I can't really speak for Manifold as far as that goes.
@Gabrielle just so everyone knows,
@IsaacKing had some communication with the cat, tipped him 69 Mana and then the cat paid back 10 Mana to Manifold.
Since neither of them are Tumbles, I think the question that needs to be answered is does Tumbles need to pay back the loan, or can it be paid back from any user, friend or stranger on behalf of Tumbles.
To me it seems like a cop out for someone who is not Tumbles to pay back an immaterial amount for the sole purpose of winning this market.
If @Nightsquared intended for this to be a manipulation market and @Manifold considers the loan partially paid back by Tumbles, then I won't complain. It just seems like too much of a stretch.
@HillaryClinton I believe the cat to be operating as an authorized agent of Tumbles for financial purposes. Tumbles' profile states as much:
