What will be true of Manifold's "loan" to Tumbles?
44
1.6kṀ21k2026
98.2%
Tumbles will not pay any of it off before 2026
7%
Tumbles will have to pay it off in some form, and will be late on a payment before 2026
1.9%
Manifold will "loan" at least Ṁ1,000,000 more to Tumbles before 2026
3%
Tumbles will have to pay it off in some form, with payments due before 2026, and will not be late on any payment before 2026
94%
Tumbles will quit Manifold before repaying the loan
1.8%
Tumbles will "pay" it back but not with Mana...
2%
It will be wiped/solved/paid by @Mira
95%
Tumbles will not pay any of it off before 2027
98.1%
Tumbles will not pay it off in full before 2027
@Manifold recently "loaned" Ṁ1,400,000 to @Tumbles :
My primary information source for resolutions will be Manifold tools (i.e. looking at profit/portfolio value graphs) when possible, but I expect to rely on statements from Manifold and Tumbles for some resolutions, and I expect to largely take these statements at face value. For this market, "before 2026" is equivalent to "by the end of 2025" (and this is also true for other years in the obvious way). I may extend the market if options resolving after 2025 are added.
I will not bet on this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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