@Manifold recently "loaned" Ṁ1,400,000 to @Tumbles :
My primary information source for resolutions will be Manifold tools (i.e. looking at profit/portfolio value graphs) when possible, but I expect to rely on statements from Manifold and Tumbles for some resolutions, and I expect to largely take these statements at face value. For this market, "before 2026" is equivalent to "by the end of 2025" (and this is also true for other years in the obvious way). I may extend the market if options resolving after 2025 are added.
I will not bet on this market.
1,000People are also trading
@mods @Gabrielle who resolved this? User is inactive and I don't think it resolved correctly. Tumbles did not pay back anything.
@HillaryClinton Strictly speaking, I believe Tumbles paid back 1 mana, or a similar amount, specifically to resolve the partial payback option here.
@Gabrielle Someone gave Tumbles Cat 69 Mana and then Tumbles Cat paid back 10 Mana.
Does Tumbles Cat really count as payment? Could any user have paid back 1 Mana on behalf of Tumbles?
@HillaryClinton It looks like @ian resolved the options, and he’s probably the best source we have for what counts as paying back Manifold, unless SG wants to weigh in here.
@Gabrielle as long as @ian considers a sketchy payment from Tumble's cat as partially repaying the loan, I'll concede defeat.
I just want to make sure he actually thought about it, as the description specifically says to "rely on statements from manifold".
@ian k. I still think it's a loophole that doesn't quite fit the spirit of the market, but so be it. I'll respect your decision as final.
@HillaryClinton o i def could be missing context here. do you think it had to be a sizable portion of the loan? that would've probably been better to include in the answer but maybe you clarified that in a comment?
@ian it basically comes down to this:
Does Manifold consider Tumbles loan partially paid off?
Does a 10 Mana repayment funded by another user from Tumble's cat count?
Another user sent Tumbles Cat 69 Mana and then they used 10 of that Mana to repay the loan. So to me it's questionable who even actually paid this back. It's really someone else's mana.
This essentially became a manipulation market where a user bribed Tumbles Cat in order to win.
I personally do not consider a 10 Mana repayment funded by another user in order to manipulate the market either material or in the spirit of the market.
Per the description it's really how manifold feels. So it's up to you. Those are the facts.
@HillaryClinton o thanks for the reminder in the DMs. hmm i guess i don't feel like i have a good enough pulse on the spirit of the market to change the resolution. he did pay a part of it back, so literally that's true. as to whether that's aligned with the spirit, i'm not sure. i wish the market creator was here to weigh in. as the answer adder, i'd say it's partly up to you to decide, but i'm not sure you can be unbiased here.
@ian @HillaryClinton I'll state some of how I think about these things but I really don't think my opinion should be taken as authoritative, since I didn't have a hand in creating the market and it's not clear to me I had a hand in setting the relevant norms
---
I always treated questions of loans being paid off or late as completely source agnostic, so long as the funds were unambiguously meant to repay my debt. To me, the two essential elements of a debt are entitlement and responsibility. One party is entitled to receive payment, and another party has the responsibility of ensuring that entitlement is fulfilled. Formalistic questions about how currency changes hands are not essential; if the entitlement has been satisfied, there is nothing left for the debtor to be responsible for.
How much payment counts as partial payment is a tricky question. If someone asked me how much of the debt from Manifold I have paid off I would say "virtually none" or something similar; I would consider an answer of "only a bit" to be at least slightly dishonest, although I think an answer of "technically a bit" would be honest. When it comes to betting on a fuzzy question like this, I think it should always be assumed that the intended resolution criteria was concrete and unambiguous IF such a reasonable interpretation is available. So since it's at least a reasonable interpretation to think a tiny amount repaid constitutes 'having paid any of it off', and there is no other comparably concrete interpretation available, I think it's a good call.
---
I do think it's at least reasonable to interpret 'paying a debt' as an action an individual takes, and someone else doing it on your behalf is not equivalent. It's not how I use those words and think about debt, but it's reasonable. I will say that I consider Orangey's account as an extension of myself, since it's almost entirely used on my behalf rather than for OJ's own purposes, but once again it's at least within the bounds of reasonable to not consider @Orangey as equivalent to @Tumbles since it is his account and not mine.
Does orangey count as legal representation? If Tumbles can prove he has made a payment to orangey for legal services, then I feel comfortable with orangey representing tumbles and handling Tumbles' financial affairs.
Who resolved this? @Nightsquared I don't understand why Tumbles loan is considered partially paid off.
Any random user paying off an insignificant payment really doesn't seem right
@mods looks like the creator is inactive.
Do you consider your debt to be partially paid back by Tumbles? The description asks for your input!
@EvanDaniel i don’t think he’s paid any of it, but maybe i’m misunderstanding something bc some of those answers think he’ll have paid some of it