What will be true of Manifold's "loan" to Tumbles?
Basic
6
Ṁ3822026
1D
1W
1M
ALL
61%
Tumbles will have to pay it off in some form, and will be late on a payment before 2026
50%
Tumbles will quit Manifold before repaying the loan
44%
Tumbles will not pay any of it off before 2026
44%
Tumbles will lose it all before 2026 (profits between now and 12/31/2025 is < Ṁ-1,400,000)
33%
Tumbles will have to pay it off in some form, with payments due before 2026, and will not be late on any payment before 2026
28%
Manifold will "loan" at least Ṁ1,000,000 more to Tumbles before 2026
@Manifold recently "loaned" Ṁ1,400,000 to @Tumbles :
My primary information source for resolutions will be Manifold tools (i.e. looking at profit/portfolio value graphs) when possible, but I expect to rely on statements from Manifold and Tumbles for some resolutions, and I expect to largely take these statements at face value. For this market, "before 2026" is equivalent to "by the end of 2025" (and this is also true for other years in the obvious way). I may extend the market if options resolving after 2025 are added.
I will not bet on this market.
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