👴 If Trump Wins...

These markets as how the world will be different depending on if Trump or Biden win the election. Place your bets on how each candidate's presidency would turn out!

Also, they're all getting some extra subsidy from Manifold Politics, so there's plenty of mana to be made. If you bet any amount on the markets you'll also be notified when more subsidy is added.

If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?31% chance

#2024 US Presidential Election

If Biden wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?74% chance

#2024 US Presidential Election

If Trump is elected, will there be an executive order or legislation focused on AI before the 2026 midterms?64% chance

#2024 US Presidential Election

If Biden is elected, will there be an executive order or legislation focused on AI before the 2026 midterms?73% chance

If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?68% chance

If Biden wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?44% chance

If Trump wins, will undocumented immigration go down? (Southern Border)79% chance

#2024 US Presidential Election

If Biden wins, will undocumented immigration go down? (Southern border)55% chance

#2024 US Presidential Election

#Conditional on Biden/Trump

If Trump wins the election will the inflation rate in 2025 be below 2.5%(Current 3.5%)67% chance

#2024 US Presidential Election

If Biden wins the election will the inflation rate in 2025 be below 2.5% (Current 3.5%)68% chance

#2024 US Presidential Election

If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession before 2027?35% chance

If Biden wins, will the US enter a recession before 2027?34% chance

If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?33% chance

#Ukraine-Russia war

If Biden is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?33% chance

#Ukraine-Russia war

Carbon Brief Forecast: If Trump wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?28% chance

#2024 US Presidential Election

Carbon Brief Forecast: If Biden wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?47% chance

#2024 US Presidential Election

If Donald Trump wins the election, will he serve time in 2025?3% chance

If Donald Trump loses the election, will he serve time in 2025?36% chance

If Trump becomes President, will he "Make America Great Again" by the midterms? [Gallup Polling > Obama]38% chance

#Conditional markets

If Biden is re-elected, will he "Make America Great Again" by the midterms? [Gallup Polling > Obama]16% chance

#Conditional markets

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