If Biden wins the US 2024 election, will immigration at the south west border drop?
I will use numbers for border encounters at the Southwest border from the CBP which you can see here: https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters
If the total number for 2025 is lower than the total number for 2024, the market resolves yes. Otherwise no. If Biden doesn’t win it resolves n/a
I will add monthly numbers to compare calendar year 2024 to 2025, not the financial year totals used by CBP (FY starts in October).
See the same question for Trump:
1,000People are also trading
This is a great pair of markets, I've got them on the If Trump Wins Dashboard.
I already added some subsidy yesterday, and I'm adding another ten thousand mana right now!
@ShakedKoplewitz The numbers have been going up under Biden though so it’s hard to tell how much that stated desire matters.
@voodoo he cares more now than he did then, so that factor should push against immigration. The other factors (things like economics) were pushing for more immigration earlier but I expect them to fade due to mean reversion.