If Biden wins, will undocumented immigration go down? (Southern border) | Manifold

If Biden wins, will undocumented immigration go down? (Southern border)

Plus

97

Ṁ13k

resolved Jul 22

Resolved

N/A

1D

1W

1M

ALL

If Biden wins the US 2024 election, will immigration at the south west border drop?

I will use numbers for border encounters at the Southwest border from the CBP which you can see here: https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters

If the total number for 2025 is lower than the total number for 2024, the market resolves yes. Otherwise no. If Biden doesn’t win it resolves n/a

I will add monthly numbers to compare calendar year 2024 to 2025, not the financial year totals used by CBP (FY starts in October).

See the same question for Trump:

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#Conditional on Biden/Trump

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

This is a great pair of markets, I've got them on the If Trump Wins Dashboard.

I already added some subsidy yesterday, and I'm adding another ten thousand mana right now!

bought Ṁ100 YES

Seems likely, both because of mean reversion and because Biden absolutely wants to push it down and republicans might be more cooperative post election.

@ShakedKoplewitz The numbers have been going up under Biden though so it’s hard to tell how much that stated desire matters.

@voodoo he cares more now than he did then, so that factor should push against immigration. The other factors (things like economics) were pushing for more immigration earlier but I expect them to fade due to mean reversion.

Related questions

If Trump wins, will undocumented immigration go down? (Southern Border)

Will 2024 have more estimated illegal boarder crossings to the U.S. than in 2023?

In 2024, will more or fewer Chinese nationals enter the US illegally through the Mexican border than in 2023? Yes=more

Will Biden issue broad pardon to undocumented immigrants before leaving office?

If Trump wins, will there be more sanctuary cities in the USA when the Midterm elections end?

If Trump wins, will deportation of illegal immigrants go up by 50%?

-3% 1d81% chance

If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?

If Trump wins, will the US homicide rate decrease?

If Trump wins, will the US suicide rate decrease between his inauguration and the 2026 Midterms?

If Trump wins, will abortion rates rise from the 2024 elections to the 2026 midterms?

Related questions

If Trump wins, will undocumented immigration go down? (Southern Border)

If Trump wins, will deportation of illegal immigrants go up by 50%?

Will 2024 have more estimated illegal boarder crossings to the U.S. than in 2023?

If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?

In 2024, will more or fewer Chinese nationals enter the US illegally through the Mexican border than in 2023? Yes=more

If Trump wins, will the US homicide rate decrease?

Will Biden issue broad pardon to undocumented immigrants before leaving office?

If Trump wins, will the US suicide rate decrease between his inauguration and the 2026 Midterms?

If Trump wins, will there be more sanctuary cities in the USA when the Midterm elections end?

If Trump wins, will abortion rates rise from the 2024 elections to the 2026 midterms?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules