If Biden wins, will undocumented immigration go down? (Southern border)
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2026
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If Biden wins the US 2024 election, will immigration at the south west border drop?

I will use numbers for border encounters at the Southwest border from the CBP which you can see here: https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters

If the total number for 2025 is lower than the total number for 2024, the market resolves yes. Otherwise no. If Biden doesn’t win it resolves n/a

I will add monthly numbers to compare calendar year 2024 to 2025, not the financial year totals used by CBP (FY starts in October).

See the same question for Trump:

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This is a great pair of markets, I've got them on the If Trump Wins Dashboard.

I already added some subsidy yesterday, and I'm adding another ten thousand mana right now!

bought Ṁ100 YES

Seems likely, both because of mean reversion and because Biden absolutely wants to push it down and republicans might be more cooperative post election.

@ShakedKoplewitz The numbers have been going up under Biden though so it’s hard to tell how much that stated desire matters.

@voodoo he cares more now than he did then, so that factor should push against immigration. The other factors (things like economics) were pushing for more immigration earlier but I expect them to fade due to mean reversion.