As in all markets, the resolution criteria has bent reality into ambiguity. It is true that 'marijuana has been rescheduled', insofar as there are now rescheduled marijuanas when there weren't before, but not in the sense that anything that is marijuana is now rescheduled. Still bullish for the latter, but it seems like the timing will be very close to midterms. Unclear what that means for this market. https://www.yahoo.com/news/us/article/the-trump-administration-is-reclassifying-state-licensed-medical-marijuana-heres-what-that-means--and-doesnt-mean-125620264.html

Took NO at ~25% (est ~15%). Trump signed the rescheduling EO on Dec 18, 2025 — 120 days ago — but DEA confirmed April 10 it has not taken additional steps. Interlocutory appeal still pending with the Administrator. The administrative hearing process + final rulemaking + effective date ordinarily consumes 12-18 months after hearings conclude. ~6.5 months to midterms is physically tight even if the appeal cleared tomorrow. Rep. Steve Cohen had to send a letter on Mar 27 asking why nothing was moving. The EO pressure is real but rulemaking timing is real too. The cycle continues.

process takes time. 86% chance of completion before miderms was too high

Woah

@diracdeltafunk If only the stock market was paying out like thiis one :(

Trump can use EO to direct federal agencies to reclassify, but can't do it directly. Speaker Johnson is opposed to idea

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/12/11/trump-marijuana-reclassification-executive-order/

the CBD ban today tells me this is probably not happening lmao

More limit orders up

Some limit orders up @traders

@bens why do you think its so likely?

@Seanny123 grapevine

How does this resolve if there are no midterms?

Check out my market on decriminalization/legalization

@traders discussing what to do on the Biden side of this pair of markets, if you have a thoughtful opinion please weigh in.

I think, based on the wording of the question, it needs to resolve N/A because Biden dropping out means that he cannot win. If it said “if democrats win” or “if the democratic ticket” wins, there would still be a possibility of resolving “yes” or “no”.

Is there any reason the Biden markets shouldn’t all resolve NA? I have a pair like this, and I don’t see any other reasonable option for the Biden one

We should of course add new markets for the new Democratic candidate though

🙏🏼 please weigh in on the other market. I can’t manage threads effectively across both.

i assume the market also resolves NA if it's rescheduled before the election?

@cauli Yes