If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?
110
6.7kṀ44k
2026
47%
chance

Resolved in time for 2026 midterm elections.

Update 14 Mar 24: This market resolves NA if Trump doesn’t win.

Update 15 Mar 24: This market resolves NA if marijuana is removed from Schedule 1 in Biden’s current term.

Related:

US Politics
2024 US Presidential Election
Drug Policy
Conditional on Biden/Trump
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opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 50% order

More limit orders up

opened a Ṁ2,000 YES at 38% order

Some limit orders up @traders

boughtṀ2,500YES

@bens why do you think its so likely?

@Seanny123 grapevine

How does this resolve if there are no midterms?

Check out my market on decriminalization/legalization

@traders discussing what to do on the Biden side of this pair of markets, if you have a thoughtful opinion please weigh in.

I think, based on the wording of the question, it needs to resolve N/A because Biden dropping out means that he cannot win. If it said “if democrats win” or “if the democratic ticket” wins, there would still be a possibility of resolving “yes” or “no”.

Is there any reason the Biden markets shouldn’t all resolve NA? I have a pair like this, and I don’t see any other reasonable option for the Biden one

We should of course add new markets for the new Democratic candidate though

🙏🏼 please weigh in on the other market. I can’t manage threads effectively across both.

i assume the market also resolves NA if it's rescheduled before the election?

@cauli Yes

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Will Trump sign any cannabis-related legislation during his second term?
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