If Biden wins, will the US enter a recession before 2027?

👴 If Trump Wins...•US Politics•Politics•Joe Biden•Finance•Economics•US Economy•unemployment•Conditional on Biden/Trump

181

Ṁ2.6K

Ṁ6.9K

2027

34%

chance

ALL

If Biden does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A.

If Biden does win, resolves Yes if the US enters a recession (according to the Sahm Rule recession indicator) before the start of 2027. Otherwise resolves No.

I will use the Sahm Rule recession indicator as shown here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMCURRENT
If any datapoint in 2025 or 2026 is 0.5% or greater (i.e. if the 3-month-moving average of unemployment is at least 0.5% above its 12-month low) then a recession is underway, per this rule. (I'll wait until February 2027 in case of revisions, and use the most recent revision at that time.)

Compare:

Get Ṁ200 play money

3 Comments

42 Holders

72 Trades

Sort by:

reposted

I've boosted and subsidized this pair of questions with 10k Mana! They currently show Biden and Trump both at 30%, so if you think there should be any difference there's potentially lot of profit you can make betting on that!

bought Ṁ10 YES

What if the Sahm rule threshold is reached before the election or inauguration?

@MarkHC I'll resolve this by looking at datapoints in 2025 and 2026. As long as the indicator is above 0.5% at some point in 2025 or 2026 (and Biden wins the election), this will resolve yes.

As you can see in the chart of the indicator, whenever it's gone above 0.5% it's generally stayed above that threshold for many months -- so if it breaks the threshold in late 2024 it will very likely have some triggering datapoint in 2025 as well.