For this market, “Making America Great Again” is defined by Gallup Polling of the question "In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?" American's satisfaction under a re-elected Biden will be compared to American's previous satisfaction under Obama.
Biden's first pre-midterm presidency would have resolved No, as American satisfaction has never been higher than it was under Obama.
If American satisfaction is higher under Biden after re-election and before the 2026 midterms, then Biden has "made America great again" for the purpose of this market.
Previous peaks:
36% under Obama in 2009, declined to 17% in 2016.
38% under Trump in 2018, then another peak of 45% in 2020 before the pandemic and a decline to 11%. A version of this market would have resolved YES in 2018.
36% under Biden in 2021, currently 19% in 2024. A version of this market would have resolved NO in 2022.
If Biden isn't re-elected President, this market resolves N/A and all trades will be canceled. If he is re-elected, this market resolves Yes if satisfaction reaches 37% before the midterms or No if it does not.
You can see Trump's odds for the same question here:
1,000Is "In general, I'm satisfied with the way things are going" the benchmark for America being great? Surely your bar is higher!
@GazDownright I fully admit the framing of the question is deliberately sensational. This is just the best statistical representation I could come up with for Trump's claims of greatness relative to Obama/Biden. I think I will add quotation marks to the title though, to make it clear this isn't meant to be the objective definition of the phrase.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?