@JamesF can you clarify the exact measure (eg total or core cpi)?

Ezra Klein:

Trump has a bold, ambitious agenda to make prices much, much higher. He’s proposing a 10 percent tariff on imported goods, and a 60 percent tariff on products from China. He wants to deport huge numbers of immigrants. And he’s made it clear that he’d like to replace the Federal Reserve chair with someone more willing to take orders from him

[The Ezra Klein Show] Trump’s Bold Vision for America: Higher Prices! #theEzraKleinShow https://podcastaddict.com/the-ezra-klein-show/episode/178092115

https://www.axios.com/2024/06/25/nobel-prize-winners-biden-economy-trump-inflation

Tariffs, deporting workers, lower interest rates and tax breaks all fuel inflation.

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240605772/trumps-policies-in-a-second-term-would-be-substantially-inflationary-larry-summers-says

The CPI is up for March now at 3.5%

Tariffs and deportations are inflationary

@Parks Inflation didn’t increase above equilibrium after Trump’s 2018 tariffs

@thepurplebull markets can be highly nonlinear.

@Parks Tariffs do not matter that much, since China first exports to Mexico who then exports to us.

Adding 10,000 Mana Subsidy to this pair of markets! Currently they show Biden with a higher chance of keeping inflation down, is that accurate?

@ManifoldPolitics I’m betting on Manifold being biased against Trump

@AmmonLam I do not think the president matters that much, but a recession is quite likely this year and next year, which likely will lead to lower inflation.

Biden version: https://manifold.markets/JamesF/if-biden-wins-the-election-will-inf