If Trump wins the election will the inflation rate in 2025 be below 2.5%(Current 3.5%)
52
12k
2025
58%
chance

Inflation data gathered from the bureau of labor statistics

The current inflation rate is 3.2% the FED has a goal of 2%. 2.5% is roughly in the middle of these two numbers, if Trump is elected will the FED reach that mark.

Resolves N/A if Trump is not elected.

Biden version here:


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Tariffs, deporting workers, lower interest rates and tax breaks all fuel inflation.

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The CPI is up for March now at 3.5%

bought Ṁ10 NO

Tariffs and deportations are inflationary

@Parks Inflation didn’t increase above equilibrium after Trump’s 2018 tariffs

@thepurplebull markets can be highly nonlinear.

@Parks Tariffs do not matter that much, since China first exports to Mexico who then exports to us.

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Adding 10,000 Mana Subsidy to this pair of markets! Currently they show Biden with a higher chance of keeping inflation down, is that accurate?

bought Ṁ125 YES

@ManifoldPolitics I’m betting on Manifold being biased against Trump

@AmmonLam I do not think the president matters that much, but a recession is quite likely this year and next year, which likely will lead to lower inflation.

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