What counts: Prison, jail or house arrest pre-conviction does not, must be serving a sentence. Prison, jail or house arrest post-conviction counts. Community service, probation, and other non-custodial sentences do not count. It does not count if he is pardoned or otherwise granted clemency before his imprisonment. Related: (https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldPolitics/if-donald-trump-loses-the-election)

No — resolved on Jan 1, 2026 by Manifold Markets prediction market.

MANIFOLD

If Donald Trump wins the election, will he serve time in 2025?

105

Ṁ1kṀ32k

resolved Jan 1

Resolved

ALL

What counts:

Prison, jail or house arrest pre-conviction does not, must be serving a sentence.
Prison, jail or house arrest post-conviction counts.
Community service, probation, and other non-custodial sentences do not count.
It does not count if he is pardoned or otherwise granted clemency before his imprisonment.

Related:

Market context

US Politics

Politics

2024 US Presidential Election

Manifold

Conditional on Biden/Trump

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@ManifoldPolitics Is there a reason this is closed? I see no reason this couldn't remain open so that people can sell out / assess the probability of prison going forward.