If Biden is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
Basic
54
9.4k
2026
35%
chance

If Joe Biden does not win the 2024 presidential election or there is a peace treaty signed concluding the Russia-Ukraine war before the election this market will resolve to N/A. If Joe Biden does win the 2024 presidential election:

  • This market will resolve to YES if, before November 3rd 2026, there is a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war that consists of a 30 day period where the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense's daily updates report that less than 100 Russian soldiers have been killed in combat.

  • This market will resolve to NO otherwise.

Note: if this market is featured on the Manifold Politics page the @ManifoldPolitics account may make edits, issue clarifications, and decide the resolution in ambiguous cases.

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This is kind of tricky market because i don't think Biden will cause Ukraine and Russia to make peace. But then there is the small chance they might. Or the war could have ended till then.

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