If Trump wins, will undocumented immigration go down? (Southern Border)
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If Trump wins the US 2024 election, will immigration at the south west border drop?
I will use numbers for border encounters at the Southwest border from the CBP which you can see here: https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters
If the total number for 2025 is lower than the total number for 2024, the market resolves yes. Otherwise no. If Trump doesn’t win it resolves n/a
I will add monthly numbers to compare calendar year 2024 to 2025, not the financial year totals used by CBP (FY starts in October).
Update: We may close this market temporarily around election day to prevent manipulation.
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