If Trump wins, will undocumented immigration go down? (Southern Border)
If Trump wins, will undocumented immigration go down? (Southern Border)
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If Trump wins the US 2024 election, will immigration at the south west border drop?
I will use numbers for border encounters at the Southwest border from the CBP which you can see here: https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters
If the total number for 2025 is lower than the total number for 2024, the market resolves yes. Otherwise no. If Trump doesn’t win it resolves n/a
I will add monthly numbers to compare calendar year 2024 to 2025, not the financial year totals used by CBP (FY starts in October).
Update: We may close this market temporarily around election day to prevent manipulation.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
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