If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?
196
7kṀ82k
2027
47%
chance
5

If Trump does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A.

If Trump does win, resolves Yes if the US enters a recession (according to the Sahm Rule recession indicator) before the start of 2027. Otherwise resolves No.

I will use the Sahm Rule recession indicator as shown here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMCURRENT
If any datapoint in 2025 or 2026 is 0.5% or greater (i.e. if the 3-month-moving average of unemployment is at least 0.5% above its 12-month low) then a recession is underway, per this rule. (For a "no" resolution, I'll wait until February 2027 in case of revisions, and use the most recent revision at that time.)

Sweeps update: We may close this market temporarily around election day to prevent manipulation.

Compare:

US Politics
Politics
Economics
Joe Biden
Finance
US Economy
unemployment
Conditional on Biden/Trump
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Is Donald Trump more likely to win the presidential election if the US enters a recession by the end of 2024?
1% chance
If there's a recession before election day 2024, will a Democrat win the presidential election?
1% chance
If Trump wins, will any country enact economic sanctions against the U.S. by the 2026 midterms?
61% chance
Which party will win the Presidency? Will there be a US recession between 2025 and 2028 (inclusive)?
If Trumps wins in 2024, will US GDP be over $30 trillion on 1 Jan 2028?
84% chance
If Trump wins, what will the US unemployment rate be at the end of 2026?
45% chance
Will Trump still be president after 2027?
85% chance
Will there be a worldwide recession before 2029?
45% chance
What year will the US enter a recession next?
2028
If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?
81% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy