If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?

𝕊63

2027

56%

chance

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If Trump does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A.

If Trump does win, resolves Yes if the US enters a recession (according to the Sahm Rule recession indicator) before the start of 2027. Otherwise resolves No.

I will use the Sahm Rule recession indicator as shown here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMCURRENT
If any datapoint in 2025 or 2026 is 0.5% or greater (i.e. if the 3-month-moving average of unemployment is at least 0.5% above its 12-month low) then a recession is underway, per this rule. (For a "no" resolution, I'll wait until February 2027 in case of revisions, and use the most recent revision at that time.)

Sweeps update: We may close this market temporarily around election day to prevent manipulation.

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#Conditional on Biden/Trump

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bought Ṁ1,000 YES

What is the argument for "no" here? Surely either 10% tariffs or mass deportations would have a high (3/4?) chance of leading to this, and these seem like the plans Trump is most committed too. Is there an assumption that someone will stop him?

@ColinAitkena211 the argument I hear about this is that Trump is all talk and won't actually do these things

bought Ṁ25 NO

@ColinAitkena211 An argument is that one president, regardless of macro-economic competency, is too small to send the world's biggest economy into a recession.

Note that, as mentioned in the description, I'll resolve this by looking at datapoints in 2025 and 2026. So the fact that the indicator is currently triggered does not guarantee anything.

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