If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?
117
7kṀ30k2027
81%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves yes if Donald Trump appoints a Supreme Court Justice between his inauguration and January 1st, 2027. Only a justice who is confirmed by the Senate counts.
If Donald Trump is not re-elected, this market resolves N/A.
May differ from the same Biden conditional market due to different probabilities of also controlling the Senate and strategically timed retirements. See here for the market on if Biden wins:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?
46% chance
Will the Trump administration go after a SCOTUS justice in 2025?
14% chance
Will Donald Trump appoint at least 2 Supreme Court Justices during his second term?
36% chance
If Trump is president, will the Supreme Court be 7-2 conservative before 2033 Inauguration
44% chance
Will a Supreme Court justice retire during Trump’s second term?
92% chance
Conditional on Trump being elected in 2024, will the Supreme Court allow him to seek a third term in 2028?
4% chance
Who will the next SCOTUS Justice to leave the court be?
Will the Trump administration defy any SCOTUS ruling before the end of 2028?
72% chance
Will Trump still be president after 2027?
85% chance
Will Donald Trump be pardoned before 2027?
29% chance