If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027? | Manifold

If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?

117

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2027

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This market resolves yes if Donald Trump appoints a Supreme Court Justice between his inauguration and January 1st, 2027. Only a justice who is confirmed by the Senate counts.

If Donald Trump is not re-elected, this market resolves N/A.

May differ from the same Biden conditional market due to different probabilities of also controlling the Senate and strategically timed retirements. See here for the market on if Biden wins:

2024 US Presidential Election

Conditional on Biden/Trump

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reposted

Important question! Shaping the court is arguably the most important thing many Presidents do.

I've added this pair of markets to the If Trump Wins dashboard.

I'm also adding 10,000 Mana of subsidy, to incentivize accurate predictions.

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reposted

Important question! Shaping the court is arguably the most important thing many Presidents do.

I've added this pair of markets to the If Trump Wins dashboard.

I'm also adding 10,000 Mana of subsidy, to incentivize accurate predictions.

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