Carbon Brief Forecast: If Biden wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?

If Biden wins the US 2024 election, what will the United States' total carbon footprint be in 2030?

Carbon Brief estimates that a Trump win could add 4 billion tons of CO2 to US emissions by 2030:

I will use Our World in Data's Annual CO2 emissions dataset. In 2022, OWID reported a total emissions of 5.06 billion tons. Global Carbon Budget estimates a 3% decrease for 2023 to 4.9 billion tons, although official numbers are not yet reported.

If Biden does not win the US 2024 elections, this market resolves N/A. Otherwise:

If the total number for 2030 is 4.5 billion tons or lower, this market resolves YES.

If the total number for 2030 is higher than 4.5 billion tons, this market resolves NO.

I'll use the exact number reported in the table view, not the rounded one that is seen on hover. This market will remain open until the number is added to OWID, or the backing data source, Global Carbon Budget (

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So we're talking about a 10% decrease over 8 years (2023-2030. Over the past 8 years (2022 --> 2014 - so 4 years of Trump presidency), there's been a ~10% decrease (from 5.53 to 5.06). It seems to me there's a lot more effort being put into making number go down recently, plus renewables have gotten a lot cheaper, plus EVs have gotten and will get a lot more widespread... although not really widespread enough to have all that much impact (only about 7% of the vehicle fleet turns over in a given year, so for the next few years even under optimistic scenarios about rate of EV adoption, 0.5-2% of vehicles per year will be transitioned to EVs. - with gas vehicles representing in the ballpark of 25% of emissions, this means emission reductions of 0.125%-0.5% per year from this source... which, still now that I think about it, adds up to a significant fraction of 10% over 8 years)

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