If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

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2026

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If Donald Trump does not win the 2024 presidential election or there is a peace treaty signed concluding the Russia-Ukraine war before the election this market will resolve to N/A. If Donald Trump does win the 2024 presidential election:

This market will resolve to YES if, before November 3rd 2026, there is a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war that consists of a 30 day period where the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense's daily updates report that less than 100 Russian soldiers have been killed in combat.
This market will resolve to NO otherwise.

Sweeps update: We may close this market temporarily around election day to prevent manipulation.

Conditional on Biden/Trump

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Are there any pathological or extreme cases that might technically fulfill the terms you've laid out, but that you might not pay out for violating the spirit of it?

If, for instance, Russia happens to have some renewed success in their invasion, and then Ukraine surrenders to them, would the 'peace' (well, lack of conflict) that followers be able to count towards your ceasefire here?
(For a really extreme hypothetical, imagine Russia using a nuclear weapon and Ukraine surrendering in response - the surrender would technically be a ceasefire.)

bought Ṁ50 YES

seems likely

bought Ṁ50 YES

Yes, but it won't be after one day of Trump's presidency, just because "he said it"

opened a Ṁ30,000 YES at 50% order

why not fill me

opened a Ṁ100 YES at 30% order

If there is a ceasefire before election and then Trump is elected that seems to satisfy
"This market will resolve to YES if, before November 3rd 2026," but want to check.

@ChristopherRandles Oh that’s a good question. I didn’t really intend that interpretation, but I agree that’s what the description implies so I’ll count it. I will say that if there is a conclusive end to the war before the election I’ll resolve NA since that’s a pretty ambiguous case.

@ChristopherRandles has a decent chance of happening

reposted

Subsidized for 10k and boosted! Currently shows 25% for trump and 20% for Biden.

@ManifoldPolitics Very surprised Trump is doing better on this.

@voodoo I think it may be pessimism, that ukraine would definitively lose as support was pulled.

bought Ṁ150 YES

@RichardKroon Or they would have to take a deal at manifesting the current borders

bought Ṁ100 YES

@voodoo Why? Ukraine would be under more pressure. Less aid, a somewhat more russia friendly president. Plus, Trump loves making deals, he sees that as the coolest thing

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