If Donald Trump does not win the 2024 presidential election or there is a peace treaty signed concluding the Russia-Ukraine war before the election this market will resolve to N/A. If Donald Trump does win the 2024 presidential election:
This market will resolve to YES if, before November 3rd 2026, there is a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war that consists of a 30 day period where the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense's daily updates report that less than 100 Russian soldiers have been killed in combat.
This market will resolve to NO otherwise.
Note: if this market is featured on the Manifold Politics page the @ManifoldPolitics account may make edits, issue clarifications, and decide the resolution in ambiguous cases.
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@ChristopherRandles Oh thatโs a good question. I didnโt really intend that interpretation, but I agree thatโs what the description implies so Iโll count it. I will say that if there is a conclusive end to the war before the election Iโll resolve NA since thatโs a pretty ambiguous case.
@voodoo Why? Ukraine would be under more pressure. Less aid, a somewhat more russia friendly president. Plus, Trump loves making deals, he sees that as the coolest thing