If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

If Donald Trump does not win the 2024 presidential election or there is a peace treaty signed concluding the Russia-Ukraine war before the election this market will resolve to N/A. If Donald Trump does win the 2024 presidential election:

  • This market will resolve to YES if, before November 3rd 2026, there is a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war that consists of a 30 day period where the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense's daily updates report that less than 100 Russian soldiers have been killed in combat.

  • This market will resolve to NO otherwise.

Note: if this market is featured on the Manifold Politics page the @ManifoldPolitics account may make edits, issue clarifications, and decide the resolution in ambiguous cases.

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opened a Ṁ100 YES at 30% order

If there is a ceasefire before election and then Trump is elected that seems to satisfy
"This market will resolve to YES if, before November 3rd 2026," but want to check.

@ChristopherRandles Oh that’s a good question. I didn’t really intend that interpretation, but I agree that’s what the description implies so I’ll count it. I will say that if there is a conclusive end to the war before the election I’ll resolve NA since that’s a pretty ambiguous case.

@ChristopherRandles has a decent chance of happening


Subsidized for 10k and boosted! Currently shows 25% for trump and 20% for Biden.

@ManifoldPolitics Very surprised Trump is doing better on this.

@voodoo I think it may be pessimism, that ukraine would definitively lose as support was pulled.

bought Ṁ150 YES

@RichardKroon Or they would have to take a deal at manifesting the current borders

bought Ṁ100 YES

@voodoo Why? Ukraine would be under more pressure. Less aid, a somewhat more russia friendly president. Plus, Trump loves making deals, he sees that as the coolest thing

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