For this market, “Making America Great Again” is defined by Gallup Polling of the question "In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?" American's satisfaction under Trump will be compared to American's previous satisfaction under Obama, which was lower than the peaks of Trump's first term.
If satisfaction is once again higher under Trump as President before the 2026 midterms, then Trump has "made America great again" again for the purpose of this market.
Previous peaks:
36% under Obama in 2009, declined to 17% in 2016.
38% under Trump in 2018, then another peak of 45% in 2020 before the pandemic and a decline to 11%. A version of this market would have resolved YES in 2018.
36% under Biden in 2021, currently 19% in 2024. A version of this market would have resolved NO in 2022.
If Trump isn't elected President, this market resolves N/A and all trades will be canceled. If he is elected, this market resolves YES if American satisfaction reaches 37% before the midterms or NO if it does not.
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