If Biden wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?

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Ṁ4578

resolved Jul 22

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N/A

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This market resolves yes if Joe Biden appoints a Supreme Court Justice between his inauguration and January 1st, 2027. Only a justice who is confirmed by the Senate counts.

If Joe Biden is not re-elected, this market resolves N/A.

May differ from the same Trump conditional market due to different probabilities of also controlling the Senate and strategically timed retirements. See here for the market on if Trump wins:

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Conditional on Biden/Trump

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bought Ṁ100 NO

I'm not optimistic about this, I think Democrats are likely to lose the Senate even if Biden wins.

Check out the control of government market:

@Joshua trying to figure out which reason is more prominent in why this market is so much higher: /cantankerous/if-trump-wins-will-he-appoint-anoth

Is it caused more by

Biden is unlikely to be able be push a nomination through a likely republican controlled senate

More Conservative justices want to strategically retire when their party is in power compared to the Liberal counterparts. Old on conservative side: Thomas (75), Alito (74), Roberts (69) vs Old on Liberal: Sotomayor (69), Kagan (63)

What happens if he dies after inaugurated?

@TheWabiSabi Well, if he appointed a Justice before that it resolves yes. If not, then no.

What's the effective start date? How would this resolve if he appoints a new justice before:

the election
the electoral college meets
he is inaugurated

@C3POtheDragonSlayer Second term inauguration

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